College Football

Nick’s Picks: Week 11 – Clinchmas comes early for the Gators and Tide

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#6 FLORIDA (-17.5) AT TENNESSEE

Moneyline: Florida (-900) / Tennessee (+550)
Total: Over/Under 62.5

Florida heads to Knoxville looking to close out the SEC East. Dan Mullen and the top-ranked passing offense in the SEC will easily outrun the worst offense in the league. It may be dangerous to think of a trip to Neyland Stadium as simply a tune-up, but the Vols have not shown much of a pulse since the middle of October. Florida will jump on Tennessee early and the defense might even spark some hope heading into the SEC Championship Game in two weeks.

FLORIDA (-17.5)

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#5 TEXAS A&M  (-6.5) AT AUBURN

Moneyline: Texas A&M (-240) / Auburn (+200)
Total: Over/Under 48.5

The Auburn offense has struggled in big games this season. QB Bo Nix has put up the following numbers in the Tigers’ three losses:

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  • 177 yards  0 TD, 1 INT vs Georgia
  • 272 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs vs South Carolina
  • 227 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs, vs Alabama

Despite the trend, I expect Auburn will play aggressive and angry coming off an Iron Bowl loss. Texas A&M wins, but the Aggies may be in for a fight.

TEXAS A&M  MONEYLINE

VANDERBILT AT #8 GEORGIA (-35.5)

Moneyline: N/A
Total: Over/Under 53.5 

Sarah Fuller should get a shot to kick an extra point or field goal this week. Vanderbilt will be severely overmatched, but I’ve watched enough Georgia football this season to know better than to trust a Kirby Smart offense to cover a five touchdown spread.

VANDERBILT +35.5

 

SOUTH CAROLINA AT KENTUCKY (-11.5)

Moneyline: Kentucky (-450) / South Carolina (+325)
Total: Over/Under 47

Two teams which have lost a combined total of nine of their last ten games will look to finish the year on a high note. Outside of matchups with Vandy and Ole Miss, both offenses have had a tough time finding the end zone, which is why I’m was surprised to see this was a double digit spread. Look for USC RB Kevin Harris to cross the 1,000 yard barrier. Gamecocks cover.

SOUTH CAROLINA +11.5

 

ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI (-2.5)

Moneyline: Missouri (-135) /  Arkansas (+115)
Total: Over/Under 52

The Barry Odom Bowl features  the SEC’s two biggest overachievers in 2020. First year head coaches Sam Pittman and Eli Drinkwitz will be able paint rosy visions of the future on the recruiting trail this offseason. This game is a toss-up, but Mizzou gains an edge with the opt out of Arkansas RB Rakeem Boyd.

MISSOURI (-2.5)

 

#1 ALABAMA (-29.5)AT LSU

Moneyline: Alabama (-4100) /  LSU (+1225)
Total: Over/Under 66.5

LSU came through with the late cover last week, but Coach O’s offense doesn’t have enough firepower to hang with Bama. Roll Tide.

ALABAMA (-29.5)

 

Season in Review

Overall:  31-23 (57.4%)

Week 1:  3-4

Week 2:  3-4

Week 3:  4-3

Week 4:  1-4

Week 5:  2-2

Week 6:  4-2

Week 7:  4-0

Week 8:  3-0

Week 9:  3-2

Week 10:  4-2


FLORIDA -25.5 – Incorrect

Mark Stoops has done a great job of building the UK program, but few teams can handle that kind of loss. Florida rolls on Saturday.

Punch it in on the final play and the Gators will cover…just a couple of yards shy…too bad!

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Over 62.5 – Incorrect

 I have no concerns that Alabama will score early and often. Auburn will trail in this one, but they’ll do their part to hit the over.

I expected more than a late touchdown from the Tigers. Bama did its part on the scoreboard.


MISSOURI -14 – Correct

Vanderbilt can be a tough out from time to time, but they won’t sneak up on Missouri this year.

Sarah Fuller’s date with history overshadowed the 41-0 beatdown.


Ole Miss Moneyline – Correct

For the first time in months, the offense looked competent. Was it a one-off showing against a sleepy UGA defense or was it a sign of progress? I’ll error on the side of caution and go with Ole Miss on the moneyline.

Caution served me well in this instance. Mississippi State ended up covering late, but Kiffin drew first blood in what is the first of, hopefully, many Egg Bowls to come against Mike Leach.


LSU +15 – Correct

Though LSU is down, a big win will no doubt help the Aggies in the eyes of the selection committee. Texas A&M will take its best shot, but LSU will keep it closer than expected.

LSU thankfully scored on the final drive against the Aggies to cover.


GEORGIA -21.5 – Correct

I should boycott the Dawgs this week, but I’ve watched too many South Carolina games to do so. Georgia wins big.

UGA used a strong run game to dismantle South Carolina.