Exploring the Gators potential path to victory over Alabama and an SEC Championship

Embed from Getty Images

Coming off an inexplicable loss to LSU, Florida is a huge (17-point) underdog this Saturday in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama.

For sure, the Tide have earned that level of respect. Not only is Alabama 10-0 coming into this game with an average margin of victory of almost 33 points, but Alabama has only lost 14 times this decade. It’s been quite a run of dominance for Nick Saban.

We knew the entire year that the Alabama juggernaut was waiting at the end of the rainbow. We sort-of hoped that the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to the NFL would slow down the Bama offense. Instead, Mac Jones has taken the offense to the next level.

But Alabama isn’t invincible. While Saban has won five championships since toppling the Gators in the 2009 SEC Championship, that 2009 season is the only one where Alabama didn’t suffer a loss. The reality is that it’s really tough to run the table in the SEC.

I kept waiting for Florida to suffer a hiccup and have to escape in its last four games. The Gators weren’t able to put opponents away and looked a little bit disengaged. That bit them against LSU, but should have them fired up to play the Tide.

And just as Florida overlooked Alabama, you have to wonder if Alabama will overlook Florida since the Gators just lost to a team that Alabama absolutely eviscerated the week prior.

Out of curiosity, I looked back at every Alabama loss since 2010 to see if there are any common trends. What follows is the path that Florida likely has to take to win the SEC Championship and take down the SEC giant.

Turnovers

As I mentioned, Alabama has lost 14 games since 2010. They have turned the ball over in 12 of those 14 games, and have lost the turnover battle in 10 of them. In two of those games (2015 Ole Miss and 2013 Oklahoma), the Tide turned the ball over five times.

That doesn’t bode well for the Gators, as the Florida defense – aside from getting torched – ranks 75th in the country forcing 1.3 turnovers per game. Alabama ranks 25th at 1.9 turnovers per game, suggesting that the most likely scenario is that Florida will lose the turnover battle.

And maybe you think that Florida’s offense has done a good job of holding onto the ball this season so that would even things out. Well, the Gators offense has averaged 1.4 turnovers per game (ranked 64th) compared to 1.0 for Alabama (ranked 24th).

Half of Florida’s turnovers have come on fumbles. That’s one thing that the Gators can control, making sure that QB/running back exchanges are clean and that backs and receivers cover up when getting tackled.

I don’t see a lot of statistical evidence that Florida is about to create a bunch of turnovers against Alabama. The only thing that might be in the Gators favor is regression to the mean.

Last season, Kaiir Elam had two interceptions, Shawn Davis and Marco Wilson had three each, and Donovan Stiner had four. This year, Davis and Elam have two each and freshman Tre’Vez Johnson has the other. I know the Gators have been playing way off this year, but even with those coverages, you would expect them to have gotten a few more breaks their way.

Regardless, that’s what it’s going to take. Alabama has averaged 2.1 turnovers in its losses, losing the turnover battle by 1.2 per game during that stretch. The Gators probably aren’t in this one if they can’t win the turnover battle 3 or 4 to 1.

Throw the damn ball

I know the conventional wisdom is that if you’re playing a dynamic offense like Alabama’s, you want to run the ball and control the clock. But I don’t think that’s the wise thing to do.

In those 14 losses since 2010, Alabama has only given up an average of 155.4 yards rushing per game. There have been a couple of outliers, where 2013 Auburn ran for 296, 2014 Ohio State ran for 281 and 2010 LSU ran for 225. But those teams were equipped to run the ball.

This Gators team is not, averaging 127.1 yards rushing at a 4.2 yards per rush clip.

But what this Gators team is equipped to do is throw the ball, at a high clip and a high efficiency. The 2020 Gators throw 56 percent of the time and average 10.0 yards per attempt.

That’s an important metric, as in the Alabama’s 14 losses, they have surrendered 8.4 yards per attempt and have allowed more than 10 yards per attempt 6 times.

This is a positive sign for Florida. You don’t have to run the ball to beat Alabama, but you certainly have to throw it.

Convert on third down

Alabama typically is really successful at getting off the field on third down. This year, the Tide rank 51st, allowing conversions 38.4 percent of the time. That’s pretty close to where they’ve been over the past five seasons, ranging from 34-38 percent.

But in its 14 losses since 2010, Alabama has allowed third down conversions at a rate of 46.2 percent. In fact, the Tide have given up a conversion rate greater than 50 percent in seven of the losses.

This is a good sign for the Gators, as they are elite on third down.

This season, Florida has converted third downs at a 50 percent clip, which ranks eighth in the country. That’s remarkable when you consider that one of their main weapons – Kyle Pitts – has been out multiple games this year.

But the emergence of Kadarius Toney has given Florida multiple ways to get first downs. If the opposition decides to leave Pitts one-on-one, he’s a matchup nightmare, but so is Toney. Just watch him on those little routes over the middle, where he changes direction so quickly that defensive backs can’t stay with him.

And as much criticism as the offensive line has gotten, it actually ranks 19th in the country in Power Success Rate, a stat tracked by Football Outsiders that measures the percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go that result in a first down or touchdown.

Florida’s going to have to convert a few third-and-shorts to stay in this one.

Game Specific

Of course, the previous items are overall trends over a decade of how other teams beat the Tide. What can Florida add to the equation to stress Alabama on Saturday?

Trask runs outside

The Gators average more than six yards when they run to the outside. They average just north of four yards per carry when they run inside.

So why haven’t we seen this play since the win against Mizzou?

You’d love to get this to the running back outside. But the reality is that the threat of this play opens things up on the inside as the linebackers can’t immediately fire towards the line of scrimmage like they can for a handoff.

Trask isn’t the most nimble QB. And running him often does expose him to hits you’d rather he not take. But Florida is going to have to find yards in the running game somewhere, and getting the ball outside is one way to do it.

Emory Jones throws for a TD

The jump pass in 2006 against LSU gets all the attention, but the play I remember from that game is this one.

The reason this one sticks in my mind is that it happened right in front of me, but also it opened up my eyes to what the QB play action can open up on the backside.

I have yet to see Florida run this play in a way I’d design it. Remember this play against Missouri?

Kadarius Toney absolutely torches the defensive back on a double move. Defenses immediately come up to stop the run whenever Emory Jones comes into the game, and rightfully so. He’s averaging nearly 7 yards per rush when Florida gives him the ball on the QB power.

But there’s an opportunity to combine the play action with the QB to get single coverage – and a double move from Toney to get separation – that could give Florida an easy touchdown.

Stop the deep ball

Mac Jones has thrown 27 touchdowns this season. 15 of them have been on throws that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. Seven of them have gone to Devonta Smith.

Jones is completing 58 percent of his throws at that depth for an average of 25.6 yards per attempt. Compare that to Kyle Trask, who is completing those throws at a (still good) 53 percent clip for an average of 18.3 yards per attempt and 11 TDs.

These are the demoralizing plays Florida needs to prevent. So how do they do that? Cover-3 on first down.

Cover-3 is a defense where the two outside corners drop deep as well as the free safety to prevent deep throws. The three linebackers (or two linebackers and nickel back) and remaining safety space out evenly across the field about 10-yards deep and play men who come into their zone.

The strength is that the defensive backs bailing deep don’t need to cover as much space on deep throws. The weakness is that it is vulnerable to short passes, especially across the middle, and pretty easily diagnosed by an opposing QB.

But it does two things I think are important. First, it discourages Alabama from taking deep shots. A big part of Florida’s strategy needs to be to make Alabama earn all of its points. If they rip off a 12-yard run…fine. If they hit an 18-yard out…great. It’s the 40 and 50-yard bombs that the Gators want to avoid.

The second thing that it does is it encourages Alabama to run the ball. While Najee Harris is a good player, the Tide average 5.1 yards per rush and 11.3 yards per pass. You want them to run the ball.

And on first down, Alabama has taken 24 of its 45 deep shots. Play a defense that makes them do something different than they normally do.

Don’t get blitz-happy

Mac Jones is a good quarterback. Good quarterback’s don’t get rattled by the blitz.

You can see that in the stats, as Jones is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt when he’s under pressure. He is averaging 11.7 overall, so that is a slight downgrade, but I don’t think that decrease is worth the risk.

Because when you blitz, you put your defensive backs on an island. Those defensive backs who have been giving huge cushions all year are now going to be one-on-one with Devonta Smith? Yikes!

Instead, I’d like to see them make some adjustments up-front. Khris Bogle has 2.5 sacks as a backup, but has shown a burst to be able to get to the QB. Slide Zach Carter inside, rotate Kyree Campbell and Tedarrell Slaton, and let Brenton Cox and Bogle rush the passer from the edges.

We already talked about how turnovers aren’t likely to come from the defensive backs. But a blindside hit from Bogle to knock the ball loose could be just what Florida needs.

Takeaway

Can Florida pull this one off? Well, ESPN has their chances at 11 percent based on their FPI metric, which are better odds than some.

But here’s what’s going to have to happen. Florida is going to have to win the turnover battle, likely by two. Kyle Trask is going to have to outplay Mac Jones by a significant margin, since Alabama’s run game is likely going to be better. The Gators offense has to convert a ton of third downs. Florida can’t give up any big plays in the passing game.

And perhaps most important, Florida is going to have to come out with a fire that they haven’t had in nearly a month.

I think they will come out with that fire. You don’t get embarrassed like they did last week without bearing down in practice and coming out determined to play your best game.

But Alabama is a buzzsaw.

Trask has had a great season. His Yards above Replacement (YAR) value is 2.15, certainly Heisman-worthy. But Jones has put up a Yards above Replacement (YAR) value of 3.73, just leaps and bounds better. I know Gators fans like pointing to Trask’s 40 touchdown passes and nearly 400-yard advantage over the season, but the reality is that Jones has been much more efficient.

So the question is whether Todd Grantham can figure out a way to slow Jones down.

Let me repeat that, the key question in this game is whether Todd Grantham can figure out a way to slow Mac Jones down.

I’d love to tell you I think Florida can pull the upset. But it ain’t happening folks. I think Florida keeps it close in the first quarter, maybe even goes into halftime with a lead, but Alabama is going to seek and destroy Florida’s defensive backs every time they see man-coverage.

You might be able to hide one defensive back who’s struggling. You can’t hide them all.

Florida (+17), goes down to Alabama, 42-34.

Picks this season: 8-2, 5-5 against the spread.

Manscaped for Christmas

Thank you to everyone who helped support the initial run for Manscaped. They’ve decided to re-up with Read and Reaction just in time for Christmas.

If you have someone in your life who could use some grooming or has some odor problems, Manscaped has what you need. Whether it be ball or foot deodorant, hair shears or cologne, Manscaped has what you need.

Follow this link for 20% off your order.