Vanderbilt Again? Re-thinking how the SEC schedules football

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Mark Rogers put out a great video earlier this week on how to fix the SEC football scheduling process.

He made a ton of great points. Though we don’t see eye to eye on everything, I used this video as the inspiration to build upon some of the ideas laid out by Rogers.

Check out Mark Rogers channel on YouTube at MarkRogersTV College Football for daily college football content

Current SEC Divisions (2012-Present)

In 1992, the SEC became the first Power Five conference to expand to 12 teams and host a championship game. The next round of expansion hit two decades later when Texas A&M and Missouri were added to the mix.

While the first bit of expansion arguably created a revolutionary domino effect that led college football into the playoff era, the second wave was merely in response to the tectonic shift occurring across the sport.

In both instances, the conference showed a willingness to change.  The SEC has often been ahead of the curve in terms of change compared to its more conservative Power Five brethren (looking at you, Big Ten/Pac-12).

It’s time for the SEC set a new standard and reimagine scheduling.

Since the first expansion in 1992, the league has done its best to protect some rivalries. Initially, the SEC protected two “rivals” per team. Here is what the schedules looked like for the the top three teams in the East and West.

First Iteration of Protected Games
(1992-2002)

Can’t get enough of that Bama-Vandy rivalry!

This system worked fairly well. Each of the 12 SEC schools would cycle through a home and home series with one another in revolutions of eight years.

It’s a far from perfect system, but the league could’ve cut down time between meetings to at least once every four years if they cut out the need for the immediate return trip on the home and home.

Example: Florida could’ve played Mississippi State in 1992, Ole Miss in 1993, Arkansas in 1995, and Alabama in 1996 then either hosted or returned the trip in that order from 1997-2001. The effect is the same over the course of eight years, but the difference would be that A) each player in the SEC is guaranteed one regular season matchup with every school in the league and B) there would not be six year gaps between meetings.

Second Iteration of Protected Games
(2003-2011)

The second crack at a rotation had its warts, but it guaranteed that the longest gaps between meetings at no more than three seasons, which was an upgrade from the previous alignment that allowed for a six season gap between meetings.

This system was as closest the SEC has been to perfection from a scheduling standpoint. One permanent crossover was a more natural fit leaguewide than two even if some long time SEC rivalries such as Florida-Auburn were sacrificed. As a Gator fan, I would happily give up the Auburn game on an annual basis if it meant that Alabama didn’t get to claim Vanderbilt as its second permanent crossover opponent.

Another major downside to the second iteration: it allowed for some years of radical imbalance in key division races, like in 2011 when Florida played eventual SEC Champ LSU, eventual national champ Alabama, and Auburn while Georgia played Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Georgia skated to Atlanta while Florida would go 0-3 against the West.

Third Iteration of Protected Games
(2012-Present)

Since the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri, the only leftover from the 2003-2011 system has been the single protected game. Two changes were made: South Carolina now plays Texas A&M instead of Arkansas and the Hogs added a natural geographic rival, Missouri.

The intent is good, but from where I’m sitting, only three of these games are worthy of protection in most years:

• Auburn-Georgia: “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” is worthy of protection and carries relevance on an annual basis.
• LSU-Florida: A hyper competitive rivalry in modern times. Both schools joined the Southern Conference in 1922, both schools were founding members of the SEC in 1933, but they only played twice between 1922-1952. Prior to 1994 the  Tigers and Gators met as ranked opponents only five times (1976, 1983, 1985, 1987, and 1988). Since 1995, both schools have been ranked when facing one another in 20 out of 26 meetings. Since the mid-2000s, the LSU-Florida game has completely overtaken the Tennessee-Florida game in terms of importance. Yes, Tennessee plays in the East, but until the Vols regain relevance, the LSU-Florida matchup will continue to carry more weight.
• Arkansas-Missouri: Two border state schools can help establish a new SEC rivalry in the Ozarks. Though it’s a manufactured rivalry, both schools can make this work. Give this one some time. It will develop.

Despite the inclusion of Arkansas-Missouri, the only two crossover games that hold leaguewide significance on a near annual basis has been Auburn-Georgia and LSU-Florida.

Alabama-Tennessee is a trash rivalry – see details below – and should not be protected.

Ole Miss-Vandy, Kentucky-Mississippi State, and Texas A&M-South Carolina warrant the nickname, “The Leftovers,” and are not worthy of protecting on an annual basis.

As much as Lane Kiffin’s program will be built on what he can accomplish against Saban, don’t you think he’d prefer if his program had more frequently shots at high profile games against Florida and Georgia?

Rebuilding South Carolina may not admit it publicly, but I’m sure Gen 2 of Beamer Ball would be better off without future perennial Top-10 Texas A&M on the schedule every single year when the Gamecocks are already in the midst of dealing with in-state rival Clemson on an annual basis.

Kentucky and Mississippi State have each had their moments over the last decade, but does either school illicit much more than a shrug from the the opposing fanbase?

If over half of the protected games aren’t worth protecting, then it’s time to revisit current format. You could argue that Bama-Tennessee isn’t doing much for either side at this point either. Would the SEC benefit from more Bama-Georgia matchups if it meant sacrificing the Bama-Tennessee game?

In addition to a weak set of crossover matchups, the SEC has left massive six year gaps in between single matchups with opponents in the opposite division.

Take Florida for instance.

• The Gators face LSU every year, but they are two seasons into a seven year gap between playing Mississippi State. Do I care about watching the Gators play Mississippi State? No. Is it weird and should it be changed? Yes.
• Florida’s last trip to Auburn was in 2011 and its next trip to Auburn will be in 2024. Some things have to give in our brave new world of college football, but we can do better than once every 5-7 years and a full decade between home and homes with Auburn.
• Meanwhile, Florida fans are treated to year-in-and-year-out sloppy beatdowns of Vanderbilt, miserably underachieving Saturdays against Kentucky, and the “I’m trying, but I really feel nothing about this” matchup against Missouri (except the rage I’ve felt whenever Mizzou been up by 40+ on UF, which for some reason has happened multiple times. It still fills me with rage, but the rage stems from the idea of a clearly inferior program disgracefully whooping our team…it’s a mix of rage and embarrassment and that’s not the sort of thing that rivalries are built on).

Here’s a full look at the Gators schedule against the SEC West since the conference expanded to 14 teams.

*Only counted originally scheduled 2020 games: at Ole Miss & vs LSU

I had circled the Ole Miss game back in 2019 as my Florida road trip in 2020. I guess I’ll catch the Gators back in The Grove in 20-freaking-30!

Kyle Field was cool when I traveled to see Florida stomp a kid named Manziel in 2012. The Gators make their first (non-pandemic induced) trip back in 2022…Kyle Field is a worthy road trip. It’d be cool to go more than once in a decade.

I’m completely fine playing Alabama once every six or seven years or so. I see no issue with the current SEC schedule in regards to Florida-Alabama and recommend the same rate of matchups going forward (but willing to revisit this idea once Saban is carried away). #idontwantbama

The “Third Iteration” of crossover scheduling has been by-far the worst of the three to date. Teams like LSU and Auburn have to battle against Florida and Georgia most years while Alabama has spent the last decade feasting on their Rocky Top Cupcake.

Some may say that Bama’s advantage is cyclical, but should we consider Alabama’s 40-19-2 edge over the Volunteers since 1960 cyclical? I would argue that Tennessee benefitted from cyclical, but mostly NCAA sanction related, downturn of Alabama in the 1990s-2000s when the Vols managed to rack up 10 of the 19 wins over Bama since 1960 from 1995-2006. Alabama owns Tennessee and it’s laughable to compare that rivalry to  Florida’s 33-31-3 series edge over LSU or Georgia’s 59-52-6 series lead over Auburn, though you should never take Georgia’s word when it comes to tracking the count of an all-time series record.

I don’t believe Alabama-Tennessee is a sacred rivalry. It’s a one-sided affair with a crappy nickname. We should be willing to put it on the chopping block.

New SEC Schedule Proposal
(To take effect in 2022)

Step 1. Kill divisions; Top 2 meet in Atlanta

The SEC was hard pressed when adding two Big 12 schools in 2012.

Most of us were fine with what they did at the time. It was a goofy era where realignment was occurring at light-speed. There were talks of a playoff coming soon. Lots of moving pieces.

The league did its best to get by temporarily, but we’ve seen enough to know that, in addition to the forced fit of Missouri in the East, the league has not done a great job creating top-notch matchups in their crossover games.

Geography matters to a point, but the SEC footprint has grown so large that it no longer makes sense to prioritize it. Florida plays in a division with Kentucky (700+ miles away) and Missouri (1,000+ miles away) while playing Auburn (300+ miles away) once every five to six years under the current format.

The East vs West setup had similar drawbacks in its original 12-team inception, but the addition of two teams toward the western edge of the conference footprint has created the need for a total overhaul of divisions within the SEC.

No longer will one side of the conference serve as a battleground while the other side serves up a weak opponent since the top two teams in the SEC standings will meet every December in Atlanta.

Step 2. Keep SEC play at eight games.

There have been calls in recent years to push league play to nine games and a full 10-game SEC schedule in 2020 has only heightened calls for the league to expand to nine games.

The Power Five is split on this issue. The Big 10, Pac-12, and Big XII all play nine conference games while the ACC and SEC continue to play eight conference games.

I see the benefits in expanding SEC play, especially for teams at the top of the league, but I believe the mid-lower tier teams benefit significantly from scheduling four nonconference games per year.

Take a team like Mississippi State this past season.  The Bulldogs ended up going 3-7 in league play with wins over LSU, Vanderbilt and Missouri. This type of team benefits from four nonconference games.

In 2021, Mike Leach & Co. will face Louisiana Tech, NC State, at Memphis, and Tennessee State. Technically, Mississippi State may be the underdogs against NC State and Memphis, but I see a strong potential to get at least three wins in four games for the Bulldogs. Three wins in nonconference play means the Bulldogs only need to win three SEC games to qualify for a bowl game. Would an expanded SEC schedule help or hurt Mississippi State’s chances of qualifying for a bowl game?

Expanding the league schedule could keep an extra 2-3 teams per season out of bowl games.

If there is a concern about the league’s strength of schedule in nonconference play, create a mandate which pushes SEC teams to schedule at least two Power Five schools in nonconference action.

UF Athletic Director Scott Stricklin has created a great template for what the league should strive for in the coming years. Starting in 2022, Florida will shift from playing three cupcakes and Florida State to playing between two to four nonconference games against Power Five opponents.

The Gators will travel to first-time destinations in several instances (Utah, Cal, and Notre Dame to name a few) over the next decade. Florida is already a national brand, but Stricklin has put the Gators in position to play in high-profile, College GameDay worthy matchups on a near annual basis over the next decade.

This is an exciting new step for a program which has been infamous for rarely leaving the Sunshine State in some years and the SEC footprint in others. Keeping the SEC schedule to eight games can allow top-tier programs to aggressively pursue significant nonconference matchups in different parts of the country.

Step 3. Protect four SEC opponents.

The SEC has plenty of games that each fanbase would like to see on an annual basis, so with the elimination of divisions, we’ll have ensure some of those games are still protected.

By protecting only four games, the SEC can rotate opponents far more rapidly. Here is my proposal for each SEC school’s four protected annual matchups.

Under this format, the SEC can ensure that mainstay rivalries stay in tact while ensuring that each conference member plays one another every three seasons. It only takes five seasons for each team to complete a home and home series with the rest of the conference.

Let’s break down how this schedule would work using Florida as the example.

The Gators will maintain their neutral site game with Georgia and play a home-and-home each year with Tennessee, South Carolina, and LSU.

That leaves nine schools for Florida to face on a rotational basis:

1. Kentucky
2. Vanderbilt
3. Missouri
4. Alabama
5. Auburn
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Mississippi State
9. Arkansas

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

This is just one scenario of how the schedule can work, but as you can see, Florida covers a lot more ground in the SEC. Gone are the stale matchups like Vandy or Kentucky.

At the end of each five year cycle, the league can review and reset each school’s protected games to ensure things stay fresh.