Gators take serious hit as TE Arik Gilbert re-enters the transfer portal

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When it comes to recruiting, Florida has so little margin for error.

That’s all I could think when news that tight end transfer Arik Gilbert had decided to re-enter the transfer portal broke on Sunday.

Gilbert was the fifth ranked recruit in the 2020 class and put up significant numbers as a true freshman (35 receptions, 368 yards) for LSU last season before deciding to transfer to the Gators. Kyle Pitts had helped recruit Gilbert personally to Gainesville, and the thought was that he would lessen the blow that the Florida offense was sure to feel with the departure of Pitts – and Kadarius Toney – to the NFL.

On its face, this isn’t a huge deal. Florida is fairly well situated at the tight end position, with Kemore Gamble and Keon Zipperer – himself a highly ranked recruit – flashing some ability last season. Add to that the duo of Nick Elksnis and Gage Wilcox from the 2021 recruiting class and the Gators have plenty of bodies at tight end.

Against the Tennessee’s and South Carolina’s of the world, those guys will be more than enough. But that’s not what I’m concerned about. I’m concerned about Alabama, LSU and Georgia because those are the teams you have to beat to win the SEC.

Dan Mullen has done plenty of things right in his time in Gainesville, going a combined 29-7 and getting Florida to three New Year’s Six bowls. But five of those seven losses have come to the Tigers, Bulldogs or Crimson Tide. Perhaps more importantly, only two of the 29 wins have come against those three.

Gilbert is a mismatch on the field no matter where you send him. LSU showed that last year when they split him out wide a ton, forcing the defense to make choices in terms of who they wanted to guard him. He was too big for a safety and too fast for a linebacker. It was the exact same quandary that opposing defenses found themselves in against Florida and Kyle Pitts in 2020.

Gamble, Zipperer, Wilcox and Elksnis may turn out to be very good players. But none of them are going to demand the attention that Gilbert would have demanded.

That’s important because Florida isn’t just losing its star tight end. The losses of Pitts, Toney and Trevon Grimes means the Gators have to replace 47% of their receptions, 52% of their receiving yards and 67% of their receiving TDs. Pitts was a mismatch on the goal line every time last year, and Gilbert was going to be the same.

It wasn’t too long ago that Florida was replacing four starting wide receivers, so it might be easy to dismiss this as something Mullen will be able to paper over. After all, the offense took a mammoth step up even with Freddie Swain, Josh Hammond, Van Jefferson and Tyrie Cleveland leaving after the 2019 season.

But that take misses some key context.

First, Kyle Trask got much, much better in 2020 than he was in 2019. He improved his completion percentage, his yards per attempt, his TD:INT ratio and even his yards rushing. We have no idea what we’re getting with Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson.

Second, I took a look at the track record of the backups to those four seniors during the offseason last year and what I found was that Toney, Pitts, Grimes and Copeland had virtually the same explosive play percentage in 2019 (13.9%) as Swain, Hammond, Jefferson and Cleveland (13.8%). In fact, the returning players had 24 explosives compared to 27 for the seniors, on far fewer targets.

The key quote when re-reading that article was this:

“Whether it’s Dionte Marks, Ja’markis Weston, Trent Whittemore, Xzavier Henderson, Jaquavion Fraziers or Justin Shorter, Florida only needs one guy to step in and be explosive because there are enough explosive receivers coming back.”

Last year though, Toney, Pitts, Grimes and Copeland accounted for 50 of the Gators 75 explosives. The guy to step into the role I suggested was actually Malik Davis (6 explosives), or perhaps a combination of Davis, Nay’Quan Wright and Dameon Pierce at the running back position (11 total explosives).

Those backs are all coming back, but to rely on Shorter (2 explosives), Whittemore (3), Zipperer (3), Gamble (3) or Henderson (1) to really step into the fold as go-to, down the field receivers is a bit of a stretch. Additionally, while I’m thrilled at the edition of Demarkcus Bowman, he’s going to take opportunities away from last year’s backs.

Gilbert didn’t profile as a truly explosive player just yet (3 explosives in 2020), but that was with a revolving door at QB at LSU. If nothing else, he was another shot at finding that player amongst the players Florida had to choose from.

And that’s really the story of the transfer of Arik Gilbert.

You don’t want to grade any recruiting class on one player, just as you don’t want to overreact to one transfer coming in. Yes, Gilbert is a high-level 5-star player, but when we say that 70-80 percent of 5-stars get drafted, that means that 20-30 percent do not. Perhaps Gilbert is in that percentage.

But Gilbert was one more player that the Florida staff would have been able to choose from. He was one more player with the physical tools to become a special contributor who is now gone.

Recruiting is a probability game, and with the arsenal’s being amassed at Georgia and Alabama, Florida needs as high a probability of success as it can get, particularly if Mullen is going to rely so heavily on the transfer portal.

I don’t have any insight into why Gilbert decided to transfer elsewhere. It sounds like there may be significant personal issues behind the decision and I truly do wish him well wherever he ends up.

But one thing is for sure, his transfer just re-emphasizes what has appeared to be true from the start of the Mullen regime: the recruiting process within the program is disorganized and not an area of emphasis.

I don’t say that just because of Gilbert.

I say that because Florida reportedly didn’t give Alabama signee Terrion Arnold an option to sign with them on signing day, presumably because they were holding back spots for transfers like Gilbert or potential transfers for next season. I say that because they went full-bore after California recruit Chris Steele and then couldn’t even get him to his first fall practice.

I say that because the same is true for Justin Watkins, Jalon Jones, and Issiah Walker and because repeatedly, high-level commits haven’t been able to make it to campus to contribute (Diwun Black (hopefully on-campus soon), Deyavie Hammond and Wardrick Wilson).

Maybe this level of attrition is normal and happens at every program. It certainly doesn’t feel like it, but I have to admit that I don’t watch every other program’s recruiting like a hawk.

But it is so frustrating to have a Ferrari of a program when it comes to on-field schematics combined with a Ford Pinto of a program when it comes to recruiting. The transfers of Gilbert and Bowman were at least some signs that they had things together when it came to the transfer portal, but Gilbert’s departure casts even that into doubt.

I don’t like feeling this way about the program. I don’t like having to be negative when it comes to its long-term prospects under Mullen. I’d love to feel like Florida has a schematic and talent advantage in every game they go into. The last time that happened, Florida won a national championship in 2008, with Dan Mullen was the offensive coordinator.

That’s why the level of recruiting is so frustrating. I knew Jim McElwain’s recruiting was sub-standard, but his and Doug Nussmeier’s inability to put even a coherent offensive game plan together would have rendered the talent at Alabama pedestrian (McElwain was the OC for Alabama in the infamous 9-6 loss to LSU).

But we know what would happen if Dan Mullen had the best players, or even equivalent talent. Instead, we’re left to make excuses about how the team only lost by three points to A&M and LSU or how we gave Alabama its toughest game of the year.

All of that is true, but many Florida fans are tired of being close losers. I can’t say that I blame them. Moral victories are for Ole Miss and Georgia, programs that haven’t won anything big since before I was born.

Florida has won three national and eight SEC Championships since 1991. We are supposed to be the bullies, not the bullied. That starts with recruiting.

I do believe that you shouldn’t panic over the loss of one player. Gilbert likely isn’t going to make-or-break a Florida season in 2021 or 2022. Of course, I would have said the same thing about Chris Steele’s departure; that his loss wasn’t going to make-or-break Florida’s 2019 or 2020 seasons.

And I agreed with that assessment right up until Florida had a corner on the field last season throwing shoes.