Group of Five Needs to Think as One

Another year, another playoff snub for the Group of Five Conferences.

Despite bringing two unbeaten teams to the table, the Group of Five never received a real look from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

In a pandemic stricken world, this was the year to give the little guy a shot. We didn’t need to see Notre Dame once again get ragdolled by elite competition. Ohio State silenced the critics when they clobbered Clemson for their seventh win of the season in the Sugar Bowl. There were no doubts that the Buckeyes were talented enough to warrant a spot in the playoff field, but most of the criticism regarding OSU’s inclusion centered around their six-game schedule.

Cincinnati was the only Group of Five school which managed to crack the Top-10 in the playoff rankings at any point this season. Independent BYU only managed to climb as high as No. 13 after a 9-0 start, Sun Belt superteams Coastal Carolina rose to the No. 12 spot after a perfect regular season, and the Rajun Cajuns of Louisiana clawed their way up the the No.19 spot in the final poll while their opening day victim and CFP Committee darling, Iowa State, finished No. 10 after three losses.

FINAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS (#1-19)

What was the common knock on each of the Group of Five (Independent in BYU’s case) teams in the playoff conversation: Cincinnati, BYU, Coastal Carolina?

A weak schedule.

The Bearcats climbed to No. 7 in the CFP Rankings in Week 14 thanks to wins over Army, Memphis, Houston, and UCF. Unlike in-state counterpart, Ohio State, who held onto a playoff spot despite missing three games COVID cancellations, the CFP Committee felt Cincinnati’s COVID related cancellations were costly enough to drop the Bearcats from No. 7 to No. 9 in Week 16. The undefeated Bearcats fell behind three two-loss teams: Iowa State, Florida, and Georgia.

BYU’s 9-0 start was highlighted by three road wins against Navy, Houston, and Boise State and, yet, the Cougars never rose above No. 13 in the CFP Rankings. That was in Week 14 and BYU still found itself slotted behind two-loss Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Georgia.

Unbeaten Coastal Carolina only reached No. 18 in the polls despite a 9-0 start. The upside of the CFP Committee overlooking both the Chanticleers and Cougars is that the fans were treated to one of the coolest moments in recent college football history.

College football has a weird habit of booking nonconference matchups 20 years into the future. I get it…to some extent, College athletic directors are playing musical chairs and they want to build a schedule which fits their school’s strategy. That requires planning years in advance.

However, the downside of that approach shows up each fall when we get:

Disappointing rare meetings – a matchup like Southern Cal-Alabama, which in most years would be a great game between two historic programs, but is a total blowout while Bama is operating at the peak of their powers and USC is down.
FCS replacements for contract cancellations – programs regularly break their contracts and remake their schedules on the fly. That can leave one of the programs in desperate straits for a replacement and instead of a Power Five opponent coming to town, the home fans get to enjoy a boring win against FCS cupcake. (Group of Five teams have pulled the rug on Power Five opponents as well. Remember when UCF paid to get out of the final game of its series with Florida in 2007?)
Poor opportunities for the Group of Five – the Sunshine State recently witnessed a public spat between former UCF A.D. Danny White and Florida A.D. Scott Stricklin over the nature of a potential future series. White insisted upon a home-and-home with the Gators while Stricklin insisted Florida would only agree to a two-for-one deal, like they did with USF. While I strongly disagreed with White’s approach (I’m positive White will not be booking a home-and-home with a Tulane-like opponent now that he is the athletic director at Tennessee), his public griping did highlight a significant disparity in scheduling practices between Group of Five and Power Five programs. I understand why the disparities exist, but if you’re a Group of Five athletic director with a solid football profile to maintain, why not turn your gaze to your fellow Group of Five schools rather than rely on Power Five schools to help create an opportunity for your team?

In 2020, there were a lot of “firsts” in college football, but the best thing to come out of this frankenseason was that we saw the ability for college football to operate while scheduling on the fly.

On November 15, 2031, the Florida Gators will travel to South Bend, Indiana, to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Stop and think about for a second. If you’re reading this article, odds are, I’ve just let you know what you’ll be doing on November 15, 2031.

That’s one year shy of three presidential elections from now.

Why are we living this way?

In early November, I interviewed Jay Drew of the Deseret News on the American Football Stories podcast, and he mentioned that BYU was looking to schedule another opponent to bolster their schedule in hopes of landing a New Year’s Six Bowl bid.. Casually picking up a top-tier regular season opponent on short notice like its a pickup game at recess is completely unheard of in college football.

BYU, like its fellow Group of Five members, sat entrenched behind the unbeaten Cincinnati Bearcats and needed a statement win to go along with its perfect record.

A few weeks later, Liberty had to cancel their road game at Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak. The one-loss Flames and unbeaten Chanticleers were set to receive the the type of national attention rarely given to Group of Five schools with College GameDay set to visit Conway, South Carolina. With so much on the line, Coastal Carolina quickly struck a deal to play the Cougars and an eager BYU squad traveled across the country on just a few days notice for a battle of unbeatens.

College GameDay decided to stick around and college football fans were treated to one of the best games of the season.

The BYU-Coastal Carolina was a hit in every way. Thanks to a playoff-like atmosphere between two radically different programs from opposite ends of the country, ESPNU struck gold with its highest television rating since 2015, according to Awful Announcing.

The popularity didn’t just end with the game’s television numbers. ESPN released a statement saying it was the the weekend’s “top college football video clip in Week 14 across ESPN’s digital platform.” From ESPN:

Saturday’s ESPNU presentation of BYU-Coastal Carolina was one for the ages, and not just because of the stellar play on the field or the storylines surrounding the last-minute matchup. The 5:30 p.m. ET showdown between the ranked Cougars and Chanticleers delivered a total live audience of 1,425,000 viewers across all TV and digital platforms, including ESPNU, ESPN2 bonus coverage and streaming. On ESPNU, the game averaged 1,212,000 viewers, the most-viewed game on ESPNU since 2015 (Western Kentucky vs. LSU) and the fifth-most viewed on ESPNU all time.

The live streaming audience contributed an average minute audience of 103,000 viewers, second best for any game on ESPN networks in Week 14. The audience peaked with 2,115,000 at 8:50 p.m., when Coastal Carolina stopped BYU’s goal line drive in the closing seconds of the game. The Cougars-Chanticleers matchups also ranked as the top college football video clip in Week 14 across ESPN’s digital platforms with 1.4 million video starts.

So what is the takeaway here in terms from both the perspectives of Group of Five schools and the College Football Playoff Selection Committee?

When provided a proper stage, the right Group of Five schools can draw a crowd.

This is something we should already know since we fall in love with Cinderellas every March. Small schools like George Mason, VCU, Butler, or even Florida Gulf Coast have captured the nation’s attention after shining on a big stage. Will these schools ever truly compare to the likes of Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, or Kansas on a basketball court? No…but that’s why we’re drawn to them. They are shooting stars. There for a moment and gone.

Unlike college basketball, where winning your conference triggers an automatic bid into the tournament, the CFP Committee doesn’t even provide the slightest glance to schools outside of the Power Five. This effectively eliminates half of the FBS’ 130 teams (65 in Power Five and 65 in Group of Five) from a national title opportunity prior to the start of the season.

Try explaining this logic to someone who is learning about college football.

Les Miles (well, not anymore) and woeful Kansas has a better shot to make the playoff than Boise State.
“I can’t believe it’s SEC” Vanderbilt has a better shot to make the playoff than UCF.
“Our big brother founded Nike” Oregon State has a better shot to make the playoff than BYU.

There are plenty of Power Five programs who are Power Five in name only.

Purdue collects a fat Big Ten check because they were in the right place at the right time. You can wax poetic about the days of Griese, Woodson, Brees, and that one night against Ohio State all you want, but the Boilers are rarely more than a punching bag for the top teams in the conference. Interestingly enough, Purdue isn’t the only school in the Big Ten that has turned into a punching bag since the days of another Griese and Woodson.

I would argue that two-thirds of the Power Five schools wouldn’t come close to winning Group of Five conference titles in a given year.

Giving Rutgers an edge over the Boise States and UCFs of the world simply because they are Power Five school is like considering someone an expert on the stock market after they hit big on one lucky stock. Forrest Gump investing Apple may be the perfect comparison for Rutgers landing the in Big Ten. Sometimes luck trumps skill.

It’s time to recognize that the Group of Five has some untapped potential. College football is wasting half of its inventory. How can we fix this issue?

This is not an article vouching for all of the Group of Five. I’m not proposing that an undefeated UCF be handed a ticket into the playoff for simply going undefeated. Just as the CFP Committee needs to open their minds a little, the Group of Five needs to force the issue by banding together to ensure their top teams are matched up toward the end of the season.

If the Group of Five can come together to bolster the schedule of their best team, it could lead to a Group of Five school finally being selected for one of the so-far elusive four playoff spots.

Group of Five locations minus Hawaii. [Pulled from Wikipedia.]

For each G5 conference below we will create a plan using the 2020 champion as an example that will allow for the top eight teams in the Group of Five to square off over the course of the final three weeks of the season.

The winner of this mini-Group of Five playoff will have added three extra quality wins to bolster their resume for playoff consideration by Selection Sunday, which is typically the first Sunday in December.

American Athletic Conference

Down from 12 to 11 teams thanks to UConn’s exodus after the 2019 football season, the AAC is no longer split into divisions.

2020 AAC champion, Cincinnati is scheduled to play eight conference games in 2021, but the AAC title game would serve as the ninth conference game. Under the new format, Cincinnati will play eight total conference games whether or not they make the AAC Championship.

All Group of Five title games will take place in mid-November. This will allow the G5 title games to stand alone and not compete with the Power Five for attention on the same weekend.

In 2020, we saw teams that did not make the conference championship game pair up and play on the same day as the conference title game. Typically, only the two teams competing in title game play on these weekends, but conferences showed the ability to hold multiple games on the same day while still promoting their primetime event. If Cincinnati misses the AAC Championship Game, they will simply pair up and play another AAC opponent on the weekend of the championship game.

2020 SEC Championship Saturday plus other SEC games. [Pulled from espn.com.]

In this model, Cincinnati will qualify for the G5 Mini Playoff, but if the Bearcats lost a few games along the way and were not considered for the G5 Mini Playoff, they would be free to schedule three more games to close out the season (can be in conference or out of conference – up to the individual schools to decide).

Conference USA

Conference USA is compromised of ACC, SEC, and Big XII territory. The 14-team conference is the has more teams than any other Group of Five conference, but their East/West division split makes scheduling easy.

Each team will schedule two nonconference games, one game against each divisional opponent, one game against the opposite division, and the eighth game on championship Saturday (either in the title game or against another team that did not qualify for the title game).

MAC

The MAC is one of the few conferences in America that still makes geographic sense (though they’ve cycled through some teams outside of their midwestern footprint before and Buffalo is pushing the envelope a bit at the moment).

Two six team divisions allow for an easy split of five games against the same division, two games against the other division, championship Saturday and two nonconference games leading up to the three weeks of the season.

Mountain West

A conference that has been dominated by Boise State saw San Jose State rise up and claim a league title in 2020. The 2020 Spartans would have benefited greatly from a G5 Mini Playoff as they rode an obscure unbeaten season into the an under the radar bowl game before falling to Ball State.

Same setup in the Mountain West as the MAC. Two six team divisions allow for an easy split of five games against the same division, two games against the other division, championship Saturday and two nonconference games leading up to the three weeks of the season.

Sun Belt

Coastal Carolina and Louisiana made some noise right out of the gates this season with blowouts over Big XII opponents. Appalachian State is the original giant-slayer and Troy came close on many big stages before upsetting LSU a few years ago. Georgia Southern is trying to turn its FCS dynasty into something with staying power at the FBS level while Arkansas State is always a tough out.

Two five team divisions will allow the Sun Belt to play a good chunk of the conference on an annual basis. Two nonconference games, four in division games, three crossover games will accompany championship Saturday plus the three games to close out the year.

Independent (minus Notre Dame)

The Group of Five-tier Independents are capable of making noise on the national scene. We saw BYU and Liberty steal some of the spotlight in 2020. Jeff Monken’s Army teams have made folks in Ann Arbor and Norman sweat out overtime wins over the Black Knights’ option attack. New Mexico State, UConn, and UMass are quite a ways away from being concerned about a playoff snub.

Complete Group of Five Map

The 65 Group of Five schools have a presence in 31 of the 50 states and 27 of those schools are schools are located west of the Mississippi River.

Since most schools east of the Rocky Mountains are relatively clustered together, picking up three games at the end of the season should be affordable and can help build some local rivalries. For example, USF has played in-state schools lFAU and FIU several times, but they’ve never played the Sun Belt’s Georgia Southern. Regional matchups may help draw fans for teams who miss the playoffs.

Group of Five Mini-Playoff

The Group of Five Mini-Playoff will feature eight teams: five Group of Five Champions plus three Group of Five Wildcards. Each game will take place at the home stadium of the higher seed.

Forget another committee full of ex-players, coaches, and current athletic directors. The point of this exercise is two-fold: 1) allow the top G5 school to gain three extra quality wins and 2) drive television ratings. Since five positions are auto-bids, allow the television partners to select the three wild card teams and seed the teams based on resume.

Here is what the 2020 Group of Five Mini-Playoff bracket would’ve looked like:

Five conference champions:

Cincinnati (AAC)
Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
Ball State (MAC)
San Jose State (Mountain West)
UAB (Conference USA)

Three wild-card teams (selected by television executives):

BYU – arguably the most talented team in G5 in 2020.
Louisiana – only loss was by a field goal to Coastal Carolina; win over Iowa State helps seeding
Liberty – great run in the regular season; excellent offense and only loss on last second field goal block at NC State

It’s important to note that the proposed G5 Mini-Playoff is not an automatic qualifier for the College Football Playoff. If three-loss UAB made it through the field, the Blazers would clearly not deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff. Remember the goals: