Full disclaimer: I’m not all that invested in the Gators basketball program.
I like to see the Gators do well, as I do in every sport, but I grew up in Indiana rooting for the Hoosiers and I’m far more invested in the success of new head coach Mike Woodson in Bloomington than I am in whether Mike White can make Florida’s basketball program elite.
So I hadn’t planned on writing anything about White or his job status. It just doesn’t mean that much to me. Besides, I wrote about it in 2018 and 2019 and he has yet to live up to the promise that I identified back then.
But what does mean something to me is when someone insults a broad swath of the Gators fanbase as Mike Bianchi did this weekend calling Florida fans “Gator Twitter trolls”, “out of touch with reality” and “UF’s lunatic fringe.”
That’s just unfair.
It’s mostly unfair because calling people critical of White the “lunatic fringe” suggests they don’t know anything about basketball or that they are being unreasonable. Instead, all I see from White’s defenders are wildly random – and non-statistical methods – being used to defend their position.
When you ignore the evidence they’re ignoring, I struggle to see how they can call anybody being critical out of touch with reality.
NCAA Tournament – Whoop Dee Doo
Let’s get this out of the way. Making the NCAA Tournament isn’t all that impressive for a Power-5 team.
68 teams make the tournament out of 350 schools. That means you’re in the top 20-percent of programs if you make the tournament, right? Except that the Power-5 schools are disproportionately represented. Those conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame) made up 34 of the 68 spots this year, meaning that there were less Power-5 teams who missed the tournament (31) than there were that made it.
The Big Ten absolutely flamed out in the tournament this season after getting nine teams in. Do I think the Big Ten was a better conference than some of the others who’ve had better luck? Absolutely, but it turns out that one game sample sizes are rife for upsets; you know, the thing that makes the NCAA Tournament fun.
I mean, let’s think of it the other way around. I don’t think less of Coach K because Duke didn’t make the tournament. Having a bad season – or taking time for a rebuild to then grow the program stronger – happens in college basketball.
It’s certainly better that White is getting to the tournament. But all it really says about the Florida program is that it is in the top-half of the Power-5 programs in the country.
That’s something, but it’s hardly a solid rock upon which to base an argument.
Mike White vs. Billy Donovan
You’ll also hear White defenders talk about Donovan and his early exits in the tournament prior to the National Championships in 2006 and 2007. The implication is that Donovan was struggling with early exits in the tournament just like White and that success came because the administration was patient.
But that argument doesn’t hold statistical water. I’m a big believer in point differential as an indicator of how well a team actually played. If we look at the point differential in the Donovan era, what we see is why fans should have been encouraged, even with the early tournament exits prior to the ascension of the oh-fours.
Gators point differential under head coach Billy Donovan. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Donovan took over and had poor point differentials in 1997 and 1998, but immediately jumped to 10 and then 14 in 1999 and 2000. Not coincidently, that 2000 team is the one that lost to Mateen Cleaves in the championship game.
Donovan was able to nearly sustain that level of play in 2001 and 2002, but then the program took a step back in 2003 and 2004. But the same jump that Donovan oversaw in 1999 occurred again in 2005. The reason that the 2005 loss to Villanova in the tournament was so heartbreaking was because that was a really good Gators team, with a point differential of 13.1 points per game. That team probably still loses to eventual national champion North Carolina (17.7 ppg differential) in the next round, but it would have been a heck of a game.
Donovan again was able to sustain that success for two more seasons, bringing Florida its two national championships before another drop-off came. But again, he was able to build again for the 2013 season, losing to Michigan in the Elite-8.
So what about White?
Gators point differential under Mike White. (Will MIles/Read and Reaction)
We have one decent data point (2017, 11.4 points per game differential) and five bad ones (an average of 5.2 points per game differential). That 2017 team was mostly recruited by Donovan but you have to give White credit for getting them to perform.
But if you’re going to give White credit for 2017, don’t you also have to cast blame for the four subsequent seasons? There is no build. There is no progress. It’s basically Groundhog Day from 2018 to 2021, just with different excuses as to why things didn’t pan out.
SEC Success
But maybe you’re someone who thinks it’s unfair to compare White to Donovan. After all, Billy built the program into something that would be hard for anyone to maintain.
So for those defenders, what would be an acceptable standard to hold White to?
Florida is nearing its 250th SEC Championship for all of its varsity sports teams. Maybe you don’t like Billy Donovan-level success as a standard, but surely competing and winning the SEC is something that a coach who makes $3.2 million annually should be able to do every once in a while?
Again, I go back to point differential to point out something about winning the SEC in basketball (regular season champs, if there were co-champs, their point differentials were averaged).
Point differential for every SEC regular season champion since 2000. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The first thing that you’ll notice is that while there are peaks and valleys, the average SEC Champion has had a point differential of 11.9 points per game. Mike White has yet to achieve that kind of differential in six seasons.
The other thing you’d notice is that the SEC has been down for the past four seasons, with the regular season champion averaging a differential of less than 10 points per game. That means that there hasn’t been some sort of Alabama-type team like in football that the Gators have been going up against and just coming up short. Instead, this is like had McElwain figured out how to screw up winning the SEC East in 2015 and 2016 when the toughest opponent in the east was probably South Carolina.
Takeaway
There may be good arguments to keeping Mike White as the head coach at Florida. But if those arguments center around making the tournament, you should acknowledge you’re making an extremely flawed argument.
Also, let’s be honest and acknowledge that there are good arguments that he isn’t the man to take the program to the next level.
If you’re okay with just making the tournament and bowing out early, that’s fine. But at least make that argument instead of arguing that he’s about the turn the corner like Donovan did in 2006. There is zero statistical evidence to suggest that is going to happen.
It’s insulting to call fans who take a look at what White has done – in a down SEC – and talk about how they lack perspective. He isn’t showing any sort of progress indicating the program is building towards something. And now half the team has transferred out of the program and fans are supposed to trust that White will be able to strike oil through the transfer portal?
Might he? Sure. But my point isn’t that he should be fired or that Scott Stricklin isn’t right for being patient. My point is that calling Gators fans names for coming to the conclusion that White isn’t the guy to take the program to the next level takes a hubris that requires ignoring the statistics and pushing forward with blind hope.
If you’re one of those fans, maybe you’ll be rewarded for that hope. But from where I stand, those fans are the ones that are “out of touch with reality” instead of the other way around.
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Scott Hart
Firstly that just what Bianchi does to all local fan bases . Secondly if getting to the tournament and winning a game is so easy why have only 5 coaches including White done it the last 5 years? And thirdly why is White the only sec coach not to have a losing confidence record the last six years if he’s not a good coach. I’m not happy with the program but don’t see a better option out there to blow it up and start over. Good article
Mike
His record vs top 25 teams is pityful
As is his record in games decided by 5 points or less. He is O and 5 vs half ass u and the games haven’t been close . There has a been a mass exodus of players and the last 2 years his recruiting classes have been 14 th and 10th . His teams are the most inconsistent I’ve seen not only game to game but half to half . Im 5 years he hasn’t gotten a sniff at winning the sec let alone be a top 25 team .” What ever needs to be done eventually needs to be done immediately ” Jeremy Foley ! Anthony Grant needs to be hired before the program deteriorates further .
Mike
You can’t blow up something that’s already been blown up !
John
If you want to replace White, you better identify a known upgrade. Easier said than done. I wasn’t a White fan at the outset. Frankly, I wanted either Archie Miller or Chris Mack. Shows what I know. Miller failed miserably at IU and Mack recently missed the tourney at L-ville. Regardless, neither wanted any part of Billy Donovan’s shadow. Smart people in my book.
So, the results show that White has paled in comparison to Donovan. That’s pretty easy to determine and you don’t need statistics to do that.
The question is how much of Florida’s success was due to Donovan? I’d say almost all of it.
Bianchi loves to rile people up and throwing around insults is the easiest way to do it. However, if you ignore the “lunatic” hyperbole and focus on the other valid points he brings up, there’s not much to disagree with in that column.
At some point, between the administration and fan base, there needs to be an concerted effort to make Florida men’s basketball more than just an afterthought to football. If that could be done, then a heavy weight coach might think about coming in here and elevating the program to elite status. The problem is, when Billy was here, none of that happened. If not then, how can it happen now?
John Gibbons
Will;
Great data and discussion re: MW. Spot on reference to point differential! If I had to pick one data set to describe the strength of a team that would be it. The Dunkel Ratings used it for a long time.
While I’m ambivalent about whether MW stays or goes at this point; it’s worth asking why is the point differential low over his tenure (other than the one year)? The answer starts with talent identification and selection, which at this point in my opinion has been mediocre at best (regardless of the 5 star labeling). Both Lewis and Mann were raw when they arrived and they were the best he’s recruited. Payne was even in a more raw state. Yes, the ceiling was high for all 3, but that takes 3-4 years of strong development (the 2nd leg of a strong program); and all 3 remain unfinished. If he was counting on Payne to be a force in the middle………. Lastly, the third leg of a championship culture is teamwork, hard work, and resilience – which outside of the team which reached the Elite 8 White has never reproduced year over year.
Talent covers lots of coaching gaps, White’s lack of that cover exposes the gaps in offensive and defensive systems, game management, etc.
Compare the talent of FSU to UF, visually then statistically – it’s not close at this point. Leonard Hamilton is a great recruiter, a tough defensive minded coach, and limited when it comes down to the offensive side – that’s why they are eliminated before they get to the Elite 8 or better.
Until White shows his program can recognize and recruit game changing talent, then display it in a system that capitalizes on that talent – we can expect to see more of the same.
All the best, and hope the family is safe is well! Go Gators!
Stephen Batey
Thanks or your reply on this article…very well stated. Due to the extension that AD SS agreed on recently with MW I believe WE are “stuck” with MW for 2 more seasons minimally. AD SS is on thin ice with some hires as well as extensions. It is rare to have the perfect college coach but winning coaches are available, it is up to the AD to keep those coaches in the correct lanes. MW has excellent pedigree, low maintenance, great exterior. I don’t think the AD wants to make that change especially not now financially.
Mike
The reason Nembhard said he left was he wanted to play for a program” that was serious about winning championships Its obvious Stricklin cares more about saving money and his friendship with White and his father over what’s best for players, fans and any chance at being a top 25 team let alone win even a Sec title
Tom
I’m not a basketball guy, as I never played the game beyond intramural sports and on the courts with friends. Mike White’s teams from this lay person observer, never play the game like a well oiled machine. Additionally the exodus this year, as well as the previous seasons of the program’s talent..(but primarily what has happened at the conclusion of this season), leads me to believe from my experience in the business world as a manager. That there is a systemic issue with the basketball program, that would cause me if I had over-sight authority to look directly at the programs leadership……….
PMB-BTR
I may the lone voice on this one. But Mike White has made a team, year over year, that I just will not go to Gainesville to see play anymore. I live in Ocala. Nor do I watch Gator basketball on TV anymore. I did not watch the Gators in the NCAA this year, I pretty much knew what would happen. If I happen to see Gator basketball headlines on the net, I might scan an article to confirm nothing has really changed. So, I am one casual fan that has become completely disengaged. I actually pay more attention to FSU basketball, and I am a life long Gator fan that actually attended Florida for undergrad and law school.
Randy Bigelman
Watching Nembhard thrive in an uptempo game while White insisted on playing games in the 60s with him at point with Lewis and Mann running with him is perplexing. I am ambivalent about White as well but we play some ugly basketball in general and seem to play not to lose when we get a lead. Not a recipe to go deep or attract top talent. I worry this may be his ceiling as a coach and that can’t be enough.
Mike Scott
White is 14 th in the conference in recruiting this year 76’th in the country . The year before 10 th in the sec. Know one present or future want to play for him . He is O and 5 vs half ass u and the games aren’t competitive. His record vs top 25 teams is terrible as us his record in games decided by 5 points or less . His teams always run out of gas late in games because of his boot camp practices. It has been the most inconsistent play not only game to game but half to half . He isn’t recruiting plus a mass exodus of players Stricklin Is putting bud personal feelings for white and his father above what is best for players fans and program ! plus maybe the firm is low on money to buy out white and hire Anthony Grant
Roger Austin
Great article, Will. I live in Gvl and have literally been to hundreds of games over many decades. I tend to agree with your thesis/analysis and reject MB’s that the MW critics are the “lunatic fringe.” It’s an honest debate among fans; this isn’t politics – it’s sports so MB should chill a bit with the name calling. I’m on the fence on MW: he’s a decent recruiter, less so as a coach; we can’t beat FSU; we can never put an opponent away so foes all know we could collapse; players don’t improve under him; 3 of our 4 best players this year were new transfers not coached by MW, etc. These last 2 seasons have been rough and the Keyontae situation was awful for everyone. Those 2 things alone grant him more time, but the SEC is getting better at basketball (mens and womens) and MW needs to step it up.