The stat to watch to evaluate Emory Jones’ 2021 performance

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Perhaps the most asked question I’ve received this offseason has been something along the lines of “how do you think the Gators offense will be affected as Emory Jones takes over?”

It’s a great question, as the Gators offense was often unstoppable in 2020. But of course, that had to do with the skill sets of Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Trask. It’s pretty obvious that Trask has a completely different skill set than Jones, so it’s natural to wonder what the transition will look like.

I’m a huge proponent of running QBs. In fact, the stat that I developed – yards above replacement (YAR) – was an attempt to value how much a running QB brings to the fold. But as I’ve dug deeper into Mullen’s past track record, I think we might need to rethink some of the key markers for how Emory Jones is going to perform in 2021.

Dan Mullen likes a running QB, right?

If you look back at Mullen’s history, there’s no doubt that he runs the QB.

But one thing you’ll also note is that the scoring for Mullen’s teams doesn’t seem to correlate. For example, Dak Prescott averaged 6.2 yards per rush in 2013 but Mississippi State’s offense was much worse than in 2014 or 2015 when he averaged far fewer yards, but improved his passing significantly.

Whether you look at QB rushing yards overall or QB rushing yards per attempt in Mullen’s time at Mississippi State or Florida, none of those predict what kind of success the offense will have.

Instead, the stat that does predict the success of the offense is one that is specific to passing: QB rating.

QB rating vs. Points per Game for Dan Mullen’s offenses from 2009-2020. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Whether it was Nick Fitzgerald running for 1,375 yards in 2016 or Tyler Russell running for -5 in 2012, looking at their running statistics didn’t correlate to scoring. But comparing Russsell’s and Fitzgerald’s QB ratings (135.4 and 124.3) suggested teams that would score around 30 points per game. That’s exactly what we saw.

The same has applied in Mullen’s tenure at Florida.

Feleipe Franks had a QB rating of 143.4 in 2018 and the Gators scored 35 points per game. Kyle Trask had a QB rating of 156.1 and the Gators scored 33.2. When that QB rating shot up to 180.0, the Gators offense went with it, scoring 39.8 points per game in 2020.

This isn’t to say that a running QB isn’t important. Indeed, having a guy who can run the ball at the position opens up plays that otherwise wouldn’t be, allowing for more completions and better passing overall. But the fact remains, Florida – or any other team – isn’t going to get to an elite offense without Emory Jones moving the ball downfield at a reasonably efficient clip.

But what about YAR?

If you’re read me very long, you’ve seen me discuss Yards above Replacement (YAR).

The idea behind YAR is that a QB who takes a sack for -5 yards then completes a 10-yard pass is less valuable than a QB who converts that sack into a 1-yard gain and then throws a 6-yard pass. The passing may be far less effective, but the net result is that the offense has gained more yards. YAR is normalized to the average yards per pass or rush attempt for QBs, so a negative YAR is below average, 0 is exactly average, 1.0 is good and 2.0 is great.

This was actually a big reason why Florida was successful in 2018. Feleipe Franks was okay through the air at 7.6 yards per attempt, which was almost exactly average for an FBS QB (7.54). But because he averaged 3.2 yards per rush (almost a half-yard above average for QBs), his YAR was 0.16, or slightly above average.

Last season, Kyle Trask averaged 0.8 yards per rush, but that was offset by his 9.8 yards per attempt average and so his YAR was a healthy 1.60 (and was much higher if we exclude the Oklahoma game).

So what about Emory Jones? Well, Jones has averaged 5.6 yards per rush over his three seasons in Gainesville. That would have been almost 3 yards better than the average FBS QB.

What that means is that Jones doesn’t have to be an average thrower to be an above average QB. In fact, if Jones were to have the same run/pass splits as Dak Prescott did in his first year starting in 2013 (134/267) and averaged 5.6 yards per rush, he could average 6.2 yards per throw and be exactly average according to YAR.

That would have to increase to 7.7 yards per attempt to have a YAR of 1.0 and to 9.2 yards per attempt to have a YAR of 2.0. That second scenario would mean that Jones would be playing at a similar level to Liberty’s Malik Willis.

While that may be unlikely, you can see that Jones ability to run the ball will provide value to the Gators. The question is how much can he provide through the air to supplement that value.

Emory Jones’ track record

Admittedly, Jones track record is limited at Florida.

In 2019 when Trask took the helm after the injury to Feleipe Franks, I think we all assumed that Jones would get some playing time to ensure he was ready if something happened to Trask. That didn’t really happen though, as Jones only threw the ball 38 times.

He threw the ball even less in 2020, as he was only given the chance to air things out 32 times. Of course, some of that might be because his first throw of the year was an interception on a poor decision against Ole Miss.

Jones has the arm strength and has shown some pretty good touch at times. What he hasn’t had the opportunity to show is whether he can get past his first, or even second, read and pick the defense apart. His high school statistics do indicate he should be okay in this regard.

Of course, he might not have to. In his 86 attempts thus far at Florida, Jones has completed 64 percent of them for a7.1 yards per attempt average. Were he to replicate that using the same run/pass splits as above with a 5.6 yards per rush average, his YAR would be at 0.59.

Now the comparisons from last year would be D’Eriq King (Miami), Dillon Gabriel (UCF) and Ian Book (Notre Dame). That’s solid play at the position.

Takeaway

The one thing YAR doesn’t account for (intentionally) is decision-making. It’s truly just a metric looking at how effective at QB is at moving the ball down the field.

One thing that Franks did in 2018 is that his TD to INT ratio was 24 to 6 even though his YAR was just slightly above average. Trask did the same in 2019 as his YAR was just slightly above average as well, but his TD to INT ratio was 25 to 7.

QB rating – which in Mullen’s offense correlates strongly with scoring – weighs TD throws and INTs very heavily. So while the ability of Jones to run the ball may help the Gators move the ball, the reality is that his ability to avoid turnovers is going to be a big key towards determining how effective the Gators are at putting the ball in the end zone.

Jones thus far has thrown 7 TDs to only 1 INT, indicating that he may be able to continue that trend.

So if I’m projecting this year’s offense, the floor is a season like Nick Fitzgerald put up in 2016, where his YAR was 0.96 but his QB rating was 124.3, with his high YAR mainly due to his 7.1 yards per rush average. That’s not a bad floor (30.4 points per game), but it’s also not the high flying Gators offense of 2020.

To do that, Jones would have to put up a season similar to Dak Prescott in 2014 or 2015. Prescott ran for 986 yard, but he also had a QB rating of 151.7. It’s not a coincidence that the Mississippi State offense scored 36.9 points per game and ranked 16th overall in yards per play gained.

So that’s the floor and the ceiling. The truth – as is often the case – is likely somewhere in between. But that means the Gators are probably looking at a team that scores 33 to 34 points per game, which should be enough to win a lot of games in the SEC.

The only question then is, is it enough to beat Alabama when they come to the Swamp in week 3?

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