Can Jean Delance be the strength of the Gators’ 2021 offensive line?

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One question I’ve gotten over-and-over this season is whether I think the offensive line will improve enough over the offseason as the Gators to switch to a more run-oriented scheme.

It’s something I’ve thought about as well. Having to replace Stone Forsythe and Brett Heggie at left tackle and center means younger guys have to step up. And anyone who has followed the program for more than six months has heard the criticisms leveled at right guard Stewart Reese and particularly right tackle Jean Delance.

Delance admittedly has had some moments that have been downright poor, especially in pass protection. But John Hevesy isn’t an idiot. If there was someone better to throw out there, he would do it. We saw that in the LSU game, when Delance was benched and the offensive line actually performed worse.

In addition to that, there’s another thing that bodes well for the 2021 team: I don’t think the offensive line was nearly as bad as the perception was last season, including Mr. Delance.

Statistical Case

Football Outsiders has a series of advanced statistics designed to measure offensive line play. These measures aren’t perfect (which is why there are a bunch of them), but Florida’s offensive line averaged 34th in the country in the rushing metrics and 32nd in passing metrics.

The ones I want to focus on in the running game are opportunity rate, which is designed to measure how well the offensive line did its job on running plays, and power success rate, which measures success in short-yardage situations.

The Gators offensive line ranked 46th in opportunity rate, which does mean that overall the line was pretty average on a play-by-play basis when running the ball. But the Gators were ranked 12th in power success rate, indicating an ability to convert in short-yardage situations.

So then the question is, why is this the case? Why does the line do its job poorly on a play-by-play basis but execute in short yardage?

Well, thanks to SEC Stat Cat, we have access to where Florida’s offense was able to be effective in 2020. Using data from that website, we can break things down into four quadrants: Outside left, inside left, inside right and outside right. Below is how the Gators fared for each.

Florida running averages in 2020 overall. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

It’s pretty clear from this chart that the weak side of the line was inside left. Now, we do need to take into account that often the right guard pulls on running plays to the left, so Stewart Reese is a part of that. But Delance rarely is pulling and so should have little to do with the success of runs that way.

The case that Delance was actually the strength of the Gators’ running game gets stronger if we look at short-yardage situations. The following chart details the Gators’ rushing statistics on 2nd, 3rd or 4th down when there were less than 2 yards to gain.

Florida running averages in 2020 for short yardage (2nd, 3rd or 4th down and less than 2 yards) situations. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Outside left, Florida ran for almost 2 yards less per rush than all situations. They ran for the exact same average inside left. But inside right, the Gators actually increased their per-yard average by 0.42 and by more than a yard going outside right. That’s reflected by the number of explosive (10+ yard) plays, as the Gators had 14 to the right compared to just 6 to the left.

If anything, you could say that Dan Mullen didn’t utilize the right side of his offensive line nearly enough in the running game.

Film Breakdown

I know what you’re saying because it’s what I said when I looked at these stats. “These numbers must not be telling the whole story.”

In a way, that’s correct. Florida was a pass happy team in 2020, passing the ball 57.3 percent of the time. Only 7 programs threw the ball at a higher rate than the Gators. But that isn’t likely to be the case for 2021.

The consequence of that is run blocking will be more important in 2021. So the question then is does the film reflect that run blocking is a strength of Delance?

I already mentioned that Florida’s line ranked highly in short-yardage situations and plays like this are one reason why. Delance (#56) fires out of his stance to take on defensive end Travon Walker (#44) but does so with his right shoulder. That allows him to hold off Walker while advancing to the second-level to block linebacker Nakobe Dean (#17).

Stewart Reese (#51) and Brett Heggie (#61) double-team defensive tackle Nazir Stackhouse (#78), driving him backwards into the end zone, but none of that is possible without Delance taking out two defenders all by himself.

This wasn’t an isolated thing for Delance, either in this game or at the goal line.

On this play, Delance realizes immediately that the man he is responsible for – defensive end Jalen Carter (#88) – is slanting away from him. He immediately gets to the second level and knocks linebacker Quay Walker (#25) back, allowing Dameon Pierce to run for a first down.

And while fans have ripped on Delance’s athleticism – rightly so when looking at some of his breakdowns in pass protection – just look at him here on this play.

I mentioned earlier that running left isn’t normally part of Delance’s responsibility, but it is here. At the snap, he pulls across the formation and his responsibility is linebacker Nakobe Dean (#17). He pancakes him, opening up the hole for Nay’Quan Wright (#6).

This is what you hope for on every running play: a one-on-one battle between the running back and a safety. Wright is a good back who is elusive, but he didn’t show a consistent ability to beat defenders one-on-one. Lorenzo Lingard or Demarkcus Bowman (or Emory Jones, for that matter) need to be able to turn these one-on-one battles into explosive plays rather than 5-yard gains.

The insertion of Jones at QB is going to change the offense by virtue of him being a dual-threat. But it’s also going to allow the Gators to run to the right more often. That’s because with a right-handed QB, you typically run the read-option to the left and if the QB keeps the ball, he works it back to the right.

I suspect Jones will keep the ball a lot more than Trask.

Expect to see a bunch of this in 2021. Left guard Richard Gouraige (#76) and tight end Kemore Gamble (#88) both pull to the right side. Delance seals his man (Christian James, #44) inside and has him completely neutralized. In fact, the entire offensive line blocks this play this one well except that Brett Heggie (#61) gets thrown aside by Vanderbilt defensive lineman Daevion Davis (#9), who makes the tackle.

This would have been a huge gain for Jones had Heggie been able to hold his block just a tick more. Instead, it’s a 5-yard gain that keeps the Gators ahead of the chains.

When the offensive line was able to work cohesively in 2020, there were some big runs out there, albeit rare.

On this play, Stone Forsythe (#77) holds his man at the line of scrimmage. Heggie (#61) gets knocked back a yard, but not enough to prevent Gouraige (#76) from pulling around to the right effectively.

But look at Delance (#56). He absolutely blows his man back from the line of scrimmage. That frees up Stewart Reese (#51) to get to the linebackers at the next level. Because of that – and because Delance holds his block well – Pierce is able to cut the run back to the other side with only defensive backs to beat.

Takeaway

I’m not saying that Jean Delance is the best right tackle in college football.

But what I am saying is that last season’s offense was not tailored to his strengths. Kyle Trask could cover up some of that by getting rid of the ball quickly, but too often Delance was the weak link when the Gators needed to create a clean pocket.

The Gators didn’t run the ball much at all in 2020. When they did, they ran more to the left than to the right, even though runs to that side were much more successful. But the film and the statistics seem to indicate that Delance more than held his own and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he was the most physical player on the Gators offensive line in the running game. Unfortunately, his pass protection skills were what that offense needed more often.

But in 2021, that shouldn’t be the case. If 2018 is any guide (59.2% of plays were runs), the Florida offense should much more closely fit with Delance’s – and for that matter, Stewart Reese’s – skill set. That doesn’t mean that he’s going to be a first round draft pick, but with a full offseason training program and the ability to gel with Reese, I think you can make a case that Florida fans should be much more concerned about who is going to replace Heggie and Forsythe than pining for changes on the right side of the line.

I’ve alluded to the left/right splits previous to this on Gators Breakdown – and with it, that some fans might be too critical of Delance – but I still had a hard time dismissing the times I’ve seen that side of the line struggle. But the reality is this: as a run blocker, Delance brings a lot of positives. The Gators run game was much better behind him and Reese last year than behind Forsythe and Gouraige. And the Gators are going to need to run the ball more in 2021.

With Emory Jones taking the reins, the offense is going to need some road graders to clear the way for big plays. Ironically, after being an area of extreme criticism in 2020, the right side of the offensive line may be something much, much different.

The strength of the team.

Memorial Day

My Grandfathers both served in World War II. One commanded troops responsible for protecting an airport in Burma that was flying supplies into China. The other was a navigator in the South Pacific.

I’ve been thinking about them a lot this weekend, not necessarily because of their service to the country but perhaps more so because they believed that the United States was a country built on ideals worth protecting and proclaiming to the world.

I fear that we’re losing that; that a large portion of us don’t just take those ideals for granted, but actively believe that those ideals aren’t worth protecting or proclaiming.

The U.S. isn’t perfect because no country is. Having a perfect standard is unfair because no human is perfect. Undoubtedly, the people who have lead this country have made mistakes with wars they have entered or avoided, discrimination they have legitimized and policies they have pursued.

I’m reminded of those imperfections when Kamala Harris tweets “Enjoy the long weekend,” without any mention of Memorial Day just as I was reminded of it when then-candidate Trump tweeted about wishing “haters and losers a truly happy and enjoyable Memorial Day” in 2015.

It turns out, people make mistakes, say stupid things, are egotistical and vain and sometimes even have opinions that are just different from my own (i.e. wrong).

But have you  ever wished someone would extend you grace instead of holding a mistake against you in perpetuity? Me too. That’s actually why I’ve become more interested in faith as I’ve gotten older. It’s really stemmed from a recognition that I fall short of my core principles and need others to forgive me for that while still fundamentally believing that I am a good person.

The same is true of the United States.

Its founding principles – that it is self-evident that all men are created equal, endowed by their creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness – are emblematic of a nation that has every intent of doing things the right way even if that intent doesn’t always turn into reality; that even if we as a country fall short, those founding principles are worth protecting and they’re worth proclaiming throughout the world.

Because those principles are eternal. They are righteous. They are enduring.

And Memorial Day is when we say thank you to the families of those who didn’t just read those words, but lived them out in the most noble way possible by believing that they were worth fighting, and dying, for.

I wasn’t brave enough to take on that fight personally. But my life, our country and the world is better off because of their sacrifice.

So to those who have served, those who have fought, and to the families of those who have died: Memorial Day is a day to remember your sacrifice, and the enduring principles protected by your loved ones.

Thank you.