Since Dan Mullen and Urban Meyer came to town in 2005, Tennessee has been no match for the Florida Gators.
Florida has won 15 of the last 16 contests, and while those early games against Meyer in 2005 and 2006 were competitive (16-7 and 21-20), the only other games that have been close were in the Muschamp (10-9 Treon Harris game) and McElwain (Antonio Callaway and Feleipe Franks games).
Mullen came back to town in 2018, and domination of Tennessee recommenced, with a 47-21 win over the Vols in Knoxville in 2018, a 34-3 domination in Kyle Trask’s first SEC start in 2019 and a 31-19 win in Knoxville last season that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate.
Add to that the McDonald’s bag scandal that led to Jeremy Pruitt – aka Grimace – to be removed as head coach and it’s hard to see how Tennessee will compete with Florida in 2021.
Wins against Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech with a loss to Pittsburgh certainly reinforce that. While the loss to Pitt was close, losing to a lower-tier ACC team is hardly something to congratulate oneself about. Yet, I have a nagging feeling about this one, and I’m not alone.
The betting line for this game opened up with Florida more than a three touchdown favorite. The line has already moved to 18.5 points, indicating that money is going towards the Vols.
So why would that be? And is Florida really in danger of this one being closer than we might expect given the Gators ability to hang with Alabama just last week?
Lies, More Lies and Statistics
I don’t think any of us were sure whether Florida’s running game was a mirage. The Gators came into the Alabama game ranked third in the country averaging 8.5 yards per rush, but that was obviously against two overmatched opponents.
Well, the Tide looked overmatched at times against the Gators running game as well, giving up 245 yards at a 5.7 yards per rush clip. While that lowered the Gators average to 7.6 yards per attempt, that number is now first in the country after everyone started conference play last week. The conclusion is pretty clear: Florida’s running game is for real.
It’s a good thing that’s the case. The Gators passing game is middle-of-the-pack, ranked 62nd at 7.3 yards per attempt. A lot of that is due to Anthony Richardson’s 17.5 yards per attempt on 11 attempts thus far. Emory Jones has been much more pedestrian, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt, which would be 90th in the country.
So with Richardson’s availability up in the air, you have a team that really struggles to throw the ball but is elite at running the ball. Obviously that analysis changes somewhat if AR is available and 100 percent.
So what about Tennessee?
Well, the Vols are middle to bottom of the pack offensively, ranking 74th in yards per play and 82nd in yards per pass. But I think those stats are slightly misleading.
Tennessee is going to want to run the ball. They’ve decided to run it 62 percent of the time thus far this year, to a clip of 4.8 yards per rush. Good, but not great. The Gators defense has actually held up well against the run thus far in 2021, ranking 23rd at 2.8 yards per rush. That means Tennessee is likely to have to put the ball up in the air to win.
Michigan transfer Joe Milton won the starting QB job out of fall camp, but has been woeful in his limited time behind center, with a QB rating of 106.1 and a 5.4 yards per attempt average. Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has been outstanding in his time at QB, completing 70 percent of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt with a QB rating of 171.1.
Hooker is also averaging 6.3 yards per attempt on the ground, so this will be Florida’s first test against a true dual-threat QB, and for anyone who watched Terry Wilson destroy Todd Grantham’s defense in 2018, might be somewhat of a concern.
And yes, you could claim that Hooker has put up these numbers against sub-standard competition, but this isn’t anything new. At Virginia Tech, Hooker averaged 9.6 and 8.9 yards per pass attempt in 2019 and 2020 with QB Ratings of 165.8 and 153.5 and averaged 4.3 yards per rush.
The fact that there is any doubt about who should be QB at this point in Knoxville is perplexing. I’m going to assume that Hooker gets the nod.
The bit issue in this one is that the Vols have shown an inability to protect the QB. Not only have they given up 9 sacks in their first three games, but there have also been 14 tackles for loss and 5 QB hurries. The bulk of those (5 sacks, 9 TFL, 3 hurries) came against Pittsburgh.
Say what you will about the Gators defense, but getting to the QB has been – and still is – a strength.
Yet, the Gators have also surrendered first downs on 40 percent of third downs, and that conversion rate was 54 percent last week against Alabama. So despite keeping the Tide’s running game down, Bryce Young was still able to keep drives moving.
While the Florida defense played better in the second half than it did in the first quarter, Alabama’s three drives still were for a touchdown, a field goal and then to successfully run out the clock. This is a real concern with Hooker being able to extend plays with his legs and the tackling issues the Gators showed on the perimeter.
But at the end of the day, the real matchup to watch is in the running game.
As mentioned, Florida’s running game is ranked 1st in the country and they’ve shown it can be that way against a big-time opponent. However, Tennessee has the 8th ranked defense against the run, giving up 1.8 yards per rush. While I very much respect Alabama’s defense, the Tide were surrendering 3.9 yards per rush against Mercer and Miami coming in, so I think there’s some validity to Tennessee’s success, even if we want to knock them for their level of competition.
If Florida can’t run the ball, the Gators are going to sputter offensively. Even Anthony Richardson relies on his legs to a large extent to move the offense. A large portion of Florida’s explosive plays have come in the running game. And it is not a coincidence that on Florida’s touchdown drives in the second half against Alabama, the Gators ran the ball 64 percent of the time.
That’s what this team does, and it’s coming into a game against a team that thus far, has been able to take that away from its opponents. We’ll see which one is for real at the end of this one.
Film Study
I left the Gators loss to Alabama thinking that Emory Jones played pretty well. But upon re-watching the game, that isn’t really the case.
One thing you saw with Jones was that he consistently missed open receivers coming over the middle.
This should have been a completion to Malik Davis, but it requires a pinpoint throw. But if you look at the middle of the field, Trent Whittemore (#14) is wide open. This is why I harp on completion percentage all the time. Jones could have made a horrible throw to Whittemore and he would have gotten the completion. Instead, he had to make a perfect throw to Davis and it is second-and-10.
Except for on the interception, Jones was almost always given plenty of time to survey the field and find a receiver. In fact, sometimes he didn’t trust his pass protection and took off before he needed to.
Look at this play as an example. Alabama only rushes four men. Richard Gouraige (#76) and Ethan White (#77) double team the right defensive end. Kingsley Eguakun (#65) and Josh Braun (#72) take the tackles (with a little help from White). And Jean Delance (#56) – yes, that Jean Delance – stones the left defensive end.
Jones has a completely clean pocket to throw from. The pocket only collapses after he chooses to run.
And the biggest play of the game was actually one you couldn’t see on the telecast, but I happened to get on video from where I was sitting.
That was Mullen’s attempt to take a shot at the end of the half. If Jones hits that play, the Gators are down 21-12 going into the half. And in a game that they lost by two points, certainly that three would have been critical.
The end result of all of this is that Mullen is having to manufacture easy reads for Jones that allows him to hit big plays.
This is the play that drove Georgia nuts last season, or at least it looks like it. Nay’Quan Wright (#6) is going to participate in the play fake and then run a wheel route. Jacob Copeland (#1) runs a slant. And Keon Zipperer (#9) will hold to block the defensive end and then release out across the middle.
Alabama linebacker Henry To’oto’o (#10) thinks he has the play diagnosed and goes to chase Wright. But this play was designed for Zipperer from the start and once To’oto’o turns to run, the play is wide open.
This is fantastic play design by Mullen. In fact, this is a play you typically see in the red zone to get a score with the tight end engaging as a blocker and then releasing. The fact that Mullen decided to use this deep in his own territory is really creative.
But the fact that he has to be this creative lies in his QB’s inability to just execute as a drop back passer. These are things that can get better, but a lot of this requires feel, especially when to switch off of a primary read and hit the check down.
But if you’re looking for areas of improvement against Tennessee, I’d start right here. Look at the middle of the field for open receivers. Look for open check downs when the protection is good. And look for whether Mullen has to design his primary receiver open or if Jones starts to adjust who he’s throwing to based on the coverage.
Takeaway
Leaving the Alabama game, I think most Gators fans believed that Florida was actually the better team. After all, Florida outgained the Tide 440-331, outrushed them 245-91, and averaged 6.2 yards per play vs. 5.3 for Alabama.
Yet, in all the small ways that the Gators could possibly make mistakes, they did it. Whether it was pass interference penalties, special teams mistakes or just not making a play when it could shift the momentum, those plays belonged to Alabama. I’m still trying to figure out how Alabama ended up 7 of 13 on third downs.
So there’s a lot to look for in this one. Will Emory Jones start surveying the field better now that he has the confidence of hanging with Alabama? Will the defense actually put together an entire game rather than just a quarter? Will the defense actually get some turnovers?
But the biggest thing to look for against Tennessee is whether the Gators can run the ball. Because here’s the reality: I think Florida wins this game regardless of whether they’re able to run the ball or not. But they are not a real contender in the SEC if they can’t run the ball against a defense that is good at stopping it and if they can’t physically dominate what should be an inferior opponent.
I’m much more convinced now that Florida is for real than I was last week. That goes double if Anthony Richardson is back healthy. The Swamp is going to be full. The fans believe the Gators are a real contender.
It’s up to the offensive line to prove that assessment is for real.
Florida wins, 35-13 (-18.5), Picks thus far: 3-0, 1-2 ATS.