Inconsistent Gators still whip Tennessee, 38-14

Embed from Getty Images

It was definitely the tale of two halves for Florida in its 38-14 win over Tennessee.

The first half was ugly, as Florida continually shot itself in the foot going into halftime with a 17-14 lead. But the Gators came out in the third quarter, put together two touchdown drives and pulled away as Tennessee took the second half to return the favor, shooting itself in the foot multiple times.

Make no mistake, this wasn’t a pretty win. But the first half also felt a lot like those old Madden football games that decided somewhere around week 9 or 10 that under no circumstances were you going to go undefeated and everything that could go wrong did.

And Florida did prove some things that I think are going to be important long-term.

Tennessee came into the game with a top-10 run defense, albeit against limited competition. Florida again excelled in that department, averaging 7.1 yards per rush attempt and putting up 283 yards on the ground. But Florida also had a lot more balance, especially in the second half as Emory Jones started to explore throwing the ball downfield more often.

Jones played really well in the second half, but the SEC Nation crew got a little bit hyperbolic in their praise after the game. Yes, he’s the first Gators QB to throw for 200 yards and run for 100 in the same game. But the only reason that’s true is Dan Mullen didn’t let Anthony Richardson throw one more pass against USF.

It looked like Mullen finally stopped fooling around in the second half and tailored his play calling to the types of plays that Jones is good at. That is great against an overmatched Volunteers squad, but is going to be a problem against the Georgia’s and perhaps even the Kentucky’s of the world.

The Florida offense is imperfect, but is still able to be effective in its imperfectness. And winning by 24 points in the SEC – putting up 38 points total in the process – is something we shouldn’t take for granted. Even though it’s become the norm in the Dan Mullen era, those of us who suffered through the Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain eras know that it is not guaranteed.

It is definitely a step in the right direction. But with Georgia making Vanderbilt look like Bishop Sycamore, the question is whether it is a large enough step.

Turning Point

If I sound a little bit melancholy about this win, it’s because I watched the Florida defense.

I have never been a big believer in Todd Grantham and expected a change to be made after last season. But a bunch of what we saw tonight can’t be pinned on Grantham.

The first touchdown is a great example.

Amari Burney (#2, highlighted) diagnoses the screen on this play. He’s there in solid position when the ball is delivered. But he doesn’t make the tackle. Then later in the play, Rashad Torrance (#22) overruns the play even though he has a corner to help push the runner back towards the middle. The result is another missed tackle and a huge play for Tennessee to tie the game.

That wasn’t the only mistake.

On this play, Grantham decides to bring a blitz with the middle linebacker serving as a spy on Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker. That means the deep safety can only help so much on either side and so all of the defensive backs are essentially in man-to-man coverage.

At the snap, you can see Mordecai McDaniel (#32) staring towards Hooker. That’s poor technique for man-to-man coverage and he’s caught completely flat footed as Tennessee receiver JaVonta Payton blew right past him.

Those big plays were the vast majority (47%) of Tennessee’s first half offense. I know people like to criticize Grantham, but in my opinion, neither of these are his fault. Perhaps you could quibble with his decision to call the blitz and leave his young defensive backs on an island, but you have to be able to trust your DBs to not get beat by 15 yards.

That trust becomes essential when you play press coverage and man-to-man a lot. Here’s a good example.

This was probably the most important play of the game. Tennessee was down by 10 after Florida came out and drove right down the field to score. The Vols came out determined to run the ball down Florida’s throat, and succeeded early on in the drive, but eventually faced a fourth-and-5.

Because of the positioning of the safeties, it is easy to diagnose that Florida is playing man coverage. That is further confirmed when Tennessee sends a receiver in motion and he is followed by Florida STAR Tre’Vez Johnson (#16). They then run receiver Jimmy Calloway across the formation and rub corner Avery Helm to open up Calloway.

This should have been a first down, and perhaps even a touchdown. Instead, Florida got the ball back and drove down for a touchdown to essentially put the game away.

Emory Jones’ Performance

Emory Jones played pretty much average in the first half. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and 4.6 yards per rush, so his Yards Above Replacement (YAR) was 0.26, or just slightly above average.

Jones played way better in the second half. He averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt and had 6 rushes for 103 yards for a YAR of 5.59. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Florida had four drives in the second half, three of which ended in touchdowns as the Gators pulled away.

The totality of Jones’ performance is a really positive stat line. His YAR for the entire game was 2.54, which is far and away his best game as a Gator. But he can still get confused when coverages change after the snap.

I can’t be completely sure, but I don’t think Jones saw linebacker Jeremy Banks (#33) drop into coverage. He thought he had man-to-man coverage and a cover-zero look, which would mean an easy throw to Nay’Quan Wright and potentially an even bigger play if he can get any separation. Had Jones been able to read his eyes a little bit better, this could have easily been an interception (think Brenton Cox last week vs. Alabama). Still, the fact that he was decisive and got the ball out before the defensive end was able to get to him is progress.

Florida’s offense really started to hum once Jones started taking some more downfield shots.

What you see pre-snap is that Tennessee has three defenders against Florida’s four receivers. Once Jones sees the deep safety start backpedaling at the snap, all he has to do is pick the guy who comes open because the Vols don’t have enough players to take away everyone.

This is a good throw by Jones, but is opened up by the threat of the Gators’ elite running game forcing six men in the box even with five receivers. This also indicates what most teams have to choose against Florida. It is not a coincidence that on the very next play, Tennessee changed strategy and Florida made them pay.

Florida is in 11 personnel (1 RB and 1 TE) so they have two more players in the box. But Tennessee has backed off its safeties and still has only six men in the box. Florida has a numbers advantage up-front and that’s why Nay’Quan Wright is able to get to the safeties before he is even challenged.

This is all possible because of the threat of Emory Jones running the ball. Jones had some big runs in the second half, but that’s not what I think is so impressive about his running ability. Instead, I think you can see it on one of his shorter runs of the night.

On this play, right guard Josh Braun (#72) pulls across the formation. He approaches two Volunteer defenders and chooses to block the inside man. Jones reads the block and squirts just slightly to his right, which allows him to avoid both men and get the first down.

The read-options where the defensive end crashes and the tight end is pulling around look pretty, but this is what scares a defensive coordinator. Because a QB who can convert these consistently is going to eventually make you bring both safeties up to get a stop.

And that’s when Florida is going to start having the opportunity to go over the top.

Takeaway

It’s interesting, but my attitude about this game has changed as I’ve been writing this article.

There is plenty of good to take away from Florida’s offensive performance. Emory Jones was way better in the second half, to the point that it made this a really solid game for him. I can see him developing in real-time and the offense is continuing to get better, even if it is inconsistent.

That inconsistency really comes from limited explosivity. Yes, the Gators averaged 7.1 yards per rush against the Vols, but they also only averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Eventually, the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is going to catch up with them.

But it will only catch up with them if they run up against somebody who can stop their rushing game. You could dismiss that running game as a fluke against FAU and USF, but now they’ve proven they can do it against Alabama and Tennessee. There’s only one other team I’m really worried about being able to stop it now.

The defense remains the real area of concern.

I pointed out player mistakes that Todd Grantham isn’t responsible for in this one, but Grantham is ultimately responsible for recruiting these players and then putting them in position to succeed. Fans have often gotten frustrated that his corners have played off the past two seasons, but we saw some limitations tonight when they played tight.

Perhaps I should have the same attitude with the defensive backs that I have with Jones: that he isn’t perfect but I can see week-to-week improvement. The problem is that if Jones falters, I know who’s waiting in the wings. I also have a multi-decade track record of Dan Mullen being able to get his offenses to perform.

I don’t have nearly the same confidence in Grantham.

Still, the defense that gave up 7.7 and 9.4 yards per play in the first and second quarters surrendered 4.1 and 4.4 yards per play in the third and fourth quarters. It is still inconsistent, but I’m not even sure if we could use inconsistent to describe last year’s defense. It was just bad. You can’t say the same thing about 2021’s defense thus far.

So where does that leave us?

In my preview, I said that Florida had a chance to prove what kind of team it is in this game against the Volunteers. I also said the Gators would win 35-13 and whether they could run the ball would determine whether we could say they were “for real”.

Well, the Gators proved they could run the ball. They won 38-14. They were imperfect, but I think that’s what we can expect. An inconsistent, yet growing team.

How fast they can fix those inconsistencies may be what determines whether they can grow into SEC East champions.