Gators look into mirror on trip to Kentucky

Embed from Getty Images

Everyone I’ve reached out to in the past few days has assured me that I’m crazy.  After all, Florida never loses to Kentucky (well, except 2018).

But my typical pre-game analysis is sending off alarm bells. Vegas is warning us too, as the line has tightened from Florida being an 8.5-point favorite to a 7.5-point favorite over the last day. The money is flowing towards the Wildcats.

So why would that be?

After all, while Kentucky is 4-0, they haven’t really been all that impressive when you look at the scoreboard. Three of those four wins have been by one score, including a 28-23 victory over FCS Chattanooga. Even the 7-point win over Missouri looks mediocre after the Tigers dropped another game to Boston College this past weekend.

But I’ve yet to see the Gators play a complete game. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead against FAU, the rest of the game was a 14-14 tie. Florida lost the second half to an extremely inferior USF team 17-7. They then got dominated in a 21-3 first quarter against Alabama. And they were down 14-10 midway through the second quarter against Tennessee.

Kentucky is not Alabama. But they are certainly better than the Owls, Bulls and Vols. And this is Emory Jones’ first start on the road. I’ve heard people talking about how not having Anthony Richardson breathing over his shoulder has helped him settle down in the past two games.

But if Richardson playing lights out against FAU rattles you, what is a full house at Kroger Field after an interception going to do?

Florida should win this game. But it is going to take a four quarter effort, not turning it on after falling behind or coasting after jumping out to a lead. The question is, are they primed to put together that four quarter effort?

Lies, Lies and Statistics

Through four games, Emory Jones has attempted 9 passes that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. He’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt on those throws with a 22 percent completion rate.

If you want to know why it’s premature to declare him the definitive starter because he played better against Tennessee, that’s the stat to point towards. For comparison, Anthony Richardson has attempted 7 passes that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. He’s 4-7 for 188 yards (26.9 yards per attempt).

It is absolutely true that Jones has improved since the opener. But the idea that he’s improved significantly in every game isn’t really statistically true.

His Yards Above Replacement (YAR), my proprietary stat that takes into account not just passing but a QBs running ability as well, had him at -1.18 against FAU (awful), 0.83 against USF (good), 0.25 against Alabama (average) and 2.54 against Tennessee (elite).

You see the same thing if you look at a statistic that doesn’t take his running ability into account like QB rating. There the ratings are 95.5 against FAU (awful), 118.1 against USF (below average), 115.9 against Alabama (below average) and 179.5 against Tennessee (elite).

That isn’t consistent improvement. And even that Tennessee performance is based on a great second half where Jones averaged 8.8 yards per attempt through the air and 17.2 yards per attempt on the ground.

This isn’t to dump on Jones. He absolutely is improving. But the idea that he’s left the issues he had against FAU in the rear view mirror isn’t something that I’m seeing in his statistical profile (or when watching the film).

Fortunately for the Gators, Kentucky is having almost a reverse problem with its starting QB, Penn State transfer Will Levis.

Levis started out really fast against Louisiana-Monroe, throwing for 367 yards and 4 TDs on 14.1 yards per attempt. He then put up good-but-not-great performances against Missouri and Chattanooga (QB ratings of 146.3 and 134.1) and then a stinkbomb last week against South Carolina (98.0).

So who is the real Levis?

Well, he had 102 attempts (probably about 4-games worth) while at Penn State and put up a QB rating of 118.6 and a YAR of -0.20. I think that suggests that his total QB rating of 153.3 for the season is significantly inflated by the opener, but you’d expect him to get better than his previous stop being the full-time starter. It think it’s reasonable to assume that who he was against Missouri and Chattanooga is a good approximation of what you’ll see against the Gators.

Except….Florida has Todd Grantham at defensive coordinator and is really struggling to stop the pass.

The Gators defense ranks 42nd overall in yards per play allowed but has been pretty stout against the run (24th, 3.1 yards per attempt). However, the Gators have been really bad against the pass, surrendering 7.5 yards per attempt (74th) and a bunch of big plays.

Last week, the Gators defense surrendered four explosive (20+ yard) plays to the Volunteers. All four were through the air. That’s a trend, as Florida has surrendered 15 explosives in 2021 and 13 of them have been through the air.

We’ve seen this movie before against Kentucky and a Grantham offense. Back in 2018, Terry Wilson torched the Gators in the Swamp and led Kentucky to a victory averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 176.8. His QB rating overall for the season? 133.9.

Both teams rely heavily on their run games. That is obviously the strength of the Gators this season, as they rank first overall in yards per attempt (7.5). But Kentucky is no slouch either, averaging 5.5 yards per rush (13th) without any threat on the ground from Levis.

But on the defensive side of the ball, Kentucky ranks 3rd overall in yards per play and 3rd in yards per rush attempt. Just like last week, Florida is going to have to prove that it can run the ball against a defense that thus far, has been able to stop it.

The key to look for in this one is that Kentucky just doesn’t give their opponents the ball. Wildcats’ opponents have possessed the ball just 44.3 percent of the time. Florida isn’t far behind, with its opponents possessing the ball just 46.5 percent of the time.

What that means is that the number of possessions is going to be limited, so making the most of them is going to be critical. Turn the ball over and you might not have time to make up for it. Force a punt with a big third down stop and you’ve really give yourself an advantage.

Kentucky is fifth in the country on third down at 57.1 percent. Florida is ranked 71st on defense. Florida is 24th on third downs offensively while Kentucky is 63rd in getting stops. The same thing is true if you look at turnovers, red zone offense (17 possessions, 12 TDs for each) or a bunch of other stats.

These teams look much more like mirror images than the Gators being a far superior team.

Film Study

So why is Kentucky so good in short yardage? The answer to that question starts and ends with Christopher Rodriguez.

The Kentucky running back has averaged 6.8 yards per rush in his career, no small feat considering he’s carried the ball 277 times. After carrying the ball 119 times last season, he’s already toted the rock 85 times in 2021. But Rodriguez has added something to his game this season.

Coming into this season, Rodriguez had only caught two passes (one in 2019 and one in 2020). This year, he already has five receptions, including this one for a touchdown.

This play is designed for Rodriguez. How do I know? Well, the Kentucky wide receiver goes over to “block” the middle linebacker (arrow). This frees up Rodriguez for an easy touchdown as the defensive back to the outside gets caught out of position.

The threat of Rodriguez then sets up the Wildcats deep shots.

The amazing thing about this throw to me isn’t the throw (but it’s pretty good). It isn’t he catch (though it’s great). It’s that Missouri only has ten men in the picture at the snap so they have a deep safety with two defenders lined up 8 yards back from the line of scrimmage.

This is a defensive formation that dares the offense to run the ball. But instead, Kentucky goes hard play-action with wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson just beating both defenders with his speed on a corner route.

My memory of Rodriguez doesn’t really think of him as a burner, but watching Kentucky’s game against Missouri, a bulk of his big plays came on runs designed to get him outside, especially against the blitz

On this play, Kentucky catches Missouri linebacker Blaze Allredge (#25, arrow) blitzing to the right side of the offense. They then pull the right tackle around and have Rodriguez just follow him. Allredge is unable to get through traffic to make the play and Rodriguez is off to the races.

But it is the blitz that set this play up. And Kentucky is able to check to advantageous running plays if they are able to diagnose a blitz. The good news is that the Florida defense never, ever telegraphs a blitz.

Takeaway

Everything with the Kentucky offense filters through what Chris Rodriguez can do. That means that Florida stopping him is going to be the key to the game.

The interesting thing is that rewatching this Missouri game gave both the blueprint for Kentucky to beat Florida and the blueprint for Florida to come out on top. The Wildcats were about to go up 28-7 at the end of the half when Rodriguez got hit at the one-yard line and coughed the ball up. Mizzou then went down the field and scored before the half, making it a game.

Kentucky has turned the ball over 11 times in 2021 already and is -9 on the year. Some of that is bad luck as they have lost 6 fumbles and recovering those are often luck-based. The Gators have 5 interceptions as well but have only lost one fumble. They also have only generated three takeaways, meaning its unclear whether they’ll be able to take advantage of Kentucky’s proclivity for turnovers.

There just isn’t much that separates these two. The reason Florida is favored is because they played Alabama close, but I don’t like relying on a close loss as a reason to pick a team. That’s especially true when Florida’s starting QB is making his first start on the road.

The reason to pick Florida is actually someone who doesn’t show up in the stats, at least not the past two games.

As I outlined above, Emory Jones doesn’t throw the ball downfield, or at least hasn’t yet. Anthony Richardson absolutely does. He also turns just about every touch he gets into a big play (My colleague Nick Knudsen texted me today that Richardson is still the second leading rusher on the team despite missing two games and only having 11 carries. That’s just nuts.)

But it’s more than that. The threat of throwing the ball downfield opens things up for the running game. The safeties who are afraid of Richardson embarrassing them deep are a step slow when he takes off to run, which is how those 20-yard runs turn into 70-yarders. It’s also why when he does the rocker-step, Florida ends up with a player running open deep.

I think this one is going to be tight. I suspect both teams are only going to have three or four possessions per half. I don’t have a lot of confidence that Florida’s defense will be able to get off the field. Add to that the fact that I do think Will Levis is going to be able to hit a couple of explosives on this defense (everyone else has) and Kentucky is going to give Florida a scare.

If it were just Emory Jones at QB, I’d pick the Wildcats. But Dan Mullen says Richardson is 100 percent and is going to play and I think he’ll give the Gators just enough to pull this one out.

Florida (-7.5) wins, 28-24.

Picks this season: 4-0 straight up, 2-2 ATS.

Cameron Newbauer and Great Leaders

Normally, I’m not at a loss for what to say. My wife can vouch for me on that one.

But I’ve found myself the past couple of days unsure of how to address – or even whether to address – the allegations made in the Independent Florida Alligator about former Florida women’s head basketball coach Cameron Newbauer.

It’s not that I condone the alleged behavior. It’s that I’m not sure that my voice really makes much of a difference.

Scott Stricklin seemed to confirm much of the information in the article by admitting he was made aware of complaints and tried to put more structure around the program with enhanced administrative oversight and required corrective actions. Newbauer then resigned when, as Stricklin described, “we did not see the required improvements.”

Back in 2017 when I was writing for SEC Country when Florida hired Stricklin as its new AD, I submitted an article extremely critical of the hire because of his behavior towards domestic violence while at Mississippi State. My editor at the time told me they wouldn’t publish it. That’s a big part of why I decided to leave and start Read and Reaction.

The logic behind the article was that Florida was coming off of transparency issues associated with sexual assault allegations against wide receiver Antonio Callaway. Florida had appointed Jake Schickel – a Gators booster with a clear conflict of interest – as the arbitrator to hear Callaway’s sexual assault case. While Callaway was cleared of any student conduct code violations, the entire situation looked like Florida cared more about Callaway’s impact on the field than the truth.

That was unfair to the alleged victim, but it was also unfair to Callaway.

Then came the hiring of Stricklin, which was directly on the heels of an incident at Mississippi State where a 5-star recruit (Jeffery Simmons) had hit a woman multiple times and it had been captured on video. Then Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said directly that the punishment for Simmons would be an administration decision. That punishment turned out to be counseling and a one-game suspension (ironically, a loss to FCS South Alabama).

You can hear Stricklin’s reasoning for that level of punishment at the link below.

By all accounts, Simmons was a model citizen at Mississippi State (though he has since been accused of spitting on an official during an NFL playoff game). Stricklin specifically said during that press conference that he didn’t believe one mistake should define a young person. But the thing that gnawed at me at the time was that it also showed that if Stricklin believed in someone enough, he was willing to put others at risk, perhaps even unacceptable risk.

And I suspect that’s what happened here.

I don’t think Stricklin is a bad person, but I do believe he has a blind spot when he believes in someone, in this case Cam Newbauer.

When it came to Simmons, he turned into a fantastic football player and rewarded that belief. When it came to Newbauer, that belief has clearly not been rewarded.

I thought about not writing about this. After all, this is a football site and the women’s basketball coach being abusive is, at best, tangential to what this site is supposed to focus on. Plus, many of you likely will disagree with this take and I might lose readers.

But then I let my daughter read the article and we talked through it.

We talked about the lessons that she can learn about hard situations and what to do. We talked about how she is more important than things, and that a scholarship or a job as an assistant coach or a promotion are just things. So if someone is treating her poorly, she needs to speak up, consequences be damned because she is more valuable than whatever things speaking up costs her.

And we talked about how that’s really hard.

We also talked about how the saddest part of the article wasn’t that Stricklin didn’t do enough. It was the amazing number of people who knew this was going on and didn’t say anything until now. Those people ranged from players to assistant coaches to parents to administrators to boosters, and none of them were willing or able to get this behavior to stop.

And we talked about how that’s really hard too.

This same sadness struck me after the domestic violence allegations against Zach Smith – one of Urban Meyer’s assistants at Florida and Ohio State – came to light. Courtney Smith was caught in a situation where she was afraid to report the abuse because she feared her husband losing his job but the only way to get the abuse to stop was to go to a reporter.

It seems like that may be the lesson here; there aren’t enough people at these institutions willing to do the morally correct, but difficult, thing and so it takes a reporter to make it stop.

I live in Pennsylvania, and Joe Paterno is still talked about in glowing terms here in many corners. There are people who will insist that he did the right thing – in fact, the only thing he could – when he passed information about Jerry Sandusky abusing small boys up the chain of command; that it was the responsibility of his bosses to make the difficult decisions and decide whether to report Sandusky to law enforcement.

But I’d submit that if we’re going to put people in positions of great power and pay them incredible sums of money, we should demand that they behave as great leaders. That applies to athletic directors, but it also applies to other administrators, assistant coaches and boosters who had to have seen this behavior, yet didn’t do anything effective to stop it.

A great leader understands that at some point, their personal ambition will not align with the right thing to do. And they get to make a choice: do what’s right, or do what’s expedient.

A great leader speaks up before a resignation rather than after reports of abusive behavior come out. A great leader speaks up and then follows-up to protect those who can’t protect themselves. And a great leader weighs giving people a second chance versus what a failure during that second chance will mean for those underneath him or her and puts significant safeguards in place to prevent additional harm.

I can’t presume to know all of the details here, but it looks pretty clear that Scott Stricklin made some mistakes. He’s said as much in his statements since the story broke.

Just because he made mistakes doesn’t mean he needs to be fired. But I do think that means he needs to be transparent (not inviting the reporter who broke the story to his mea culpa is a horrible look). And in my opinion, at least in this case, he’s forfeited the right to dictate the terms of the corrective actions to be taken.

That means it’s now time for President Fuchs to be a great leader. He can choose to give Stricklin a second chance or not depending on his interpretation of the details. But he has to weigh what a failure during that second chance will mean for those underneath Stricklin and put significant safeguards in place to avoid additional harm.

He has a choice. Do what’s right, or do what’s expedient.

We’re all watching.