I thought by now I’d be over that loss. But I’m just not.
To outgain an opponent by 158 yards and lose because of coaching missteps, penalties and special teams mistakes is just disheartening. The promise of Dan Mullen was that he was going to out-develop and out-coach his peers, making up for any talent deficits he might have.
But Kentucky has less talent. Kentucky has a QB who completed 41 percent of his throws for 87 yards. The Gators defense – the reason I didn’t trust this team all that much – stood firm with a second-half interception and a big fourth-and-1 stop.
But Florida could only muster 13 points.
I live in Philadelphia. Normally I have very few people who even comment on the Gators. The most common thing I’ve been greeted with this week? “What happened?”
I don’t have a lot of answers. Neither does Dan Mullen either, judging by his demeanor at Monday’s press conference. But that leaves fans wondering the same thing.
What now?
The Situation
Kentucky and Georgia are now both 5-0, with Florida at 3-2. More importantly, both of Florida’s losses are SEC losses and Kentucky now owns the tiebreaker. That means that the Gators jumping Georgia is actually probably more likely than them jumping Kentucky.
The Wildcats do still have some tough ones on their schedule though.
They welcome LSU to Lexington this week, and while LSU has been struggling, it’s going to be difficult for Kentucky to get up two weeks in a row. The win over Florida was exhilarating, but after hearing fans sing their praises all week, I do wonder whether they’ll be fully focused for the Tigers.
The week after that is a showdown with Georgia. I’ll actually be rooting for Kentucky in this one, but that’s just because I dislike Georgia so much. The reality is that the Bulldogs probably win that one, meaning that Kentucky would only need to slip up one more time for the Gators to catch them.
Kentucky then finishes the season with games on the road against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt sandwiching a home game against Tennessee. All of those are winnable, but Tennessee is the one I’d watch out for. The Vols are starting to be able to score a little bit, and Kentucky hasn’t shown much ability in that department.
Is it likely that Kentucky drops three SEC games? Not really, but it’s actually more likely than you think when you look at the schedule.
That leaves Georgia as the other team Florida has to catch. That one is still a little bit easier from a logistical standpoint because Florida still gets to play the Bulldogs. Win that one and Georgia only has to slip up in one more SEC game for the Gators to win via a tie-breaker.
Georgia has a road game at Auburn this week coming up, and while the Bulldogs are the better team, road games in the SEC are tricky. That’s followed by the game against Kentucky, a bye, Florida and then finishing up with Missouri and on the road at Tennessee.
Again, the Vols are probably the key.
I don’t think it’s all that likely that Tennessee gets a win over Kentucky or Georgia, let alone both. And if they do, that would mean they need to lose to Ole Miss along the way to get a second SEC loss.
But Florida’s ability to sneak into the SEC Championship likely relies on the Vols.
Area to Improve
When you only score 13 points, the areas to improve have to focus on the offense.
There’s been a lot of focus on the deep passing game – and rightfully so – but one thing lost in that discussion is that the Gators only averaged 4.4 yards per rush against Kentucky. For a team that was averaging over 7 yards per rush coming into the game, that just isn’t getting the job done.
So what was the problem? I’d contend it was a question of explosiveness in the running game, not the passing game.
Florida’s offense has only scored below 30 points twice this season. In each loss, there’s one stat that sticks out like a sore thumb.
If you’re not going to pass the ball effectively, you have to find another way to move the ball. In both the Alabama and Kentucky games, Emory Jones ran the ball a lot (32 total times, with 5 added from Anthony Richardson). Those runs created zero explosive (20+ yard plays) in those games, compared with 10 explosive running plays from the QBs in the other three games.
Part of that is Richardson’s injury. He was responsible for a bunch of those explosives. But that’s really the issue with starting Jones. While he is capable of putting up decent running stats, he isn’t capable of generating consistent, explosive plays with his legs. He hasn’t shown the ability to do that through the air either, which is why the offense feels so much more dynamic when Richardson is on the field.
It feels that way because it is.
Jones have averaged 7.4, 6.2, 4.0, 9.6 and 4.8 yards per rush so far this season. It’s not a coincidence that he had his best performance of the year in the game where he was most effective on the ground (Tennessee). It’s also not a coincidence that Florida’s offense struggled mightily in one of his worst games on the ground against Kentucky and when AR wasn’t able to provide his normal 70-yard rush.
The point is that if you’re arguing that Emory Jones should be supplanted as the starter because of his lack of downfield passing, I think you’re missing the mark. I think the reason you should supplant him as the starter with Richardson is because AR has shown to be much more dynamic in the running game.
Florida’s offense just isn’t good enough to sustain drives. Third-and-13 is a nightmare. The only way to overcome that is by hitting big plays, and the best way for Florida to do that is on the ground with its QB.
One of them is better at it than the other.
Vanderbilt Preview
Vanderbilt is a great way to get things right. After losing every game last season in an SEC-only season, the Commodores are 2-3 with a 62-0 loss to Georgia in their only SEC game and a loss to FCS East Tennessee State.
Vandy is ranked 117th overall in yards per play gained, and are absolutely terrible through the air, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt (121st in the country). QB Ken Seals has been horrid, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 5:5 TD to INT ratio. Seals also isn’t adding anything on the ground, averaging 0.3 yards per rush.
The ‘Dores aren’t any better on the other side of the ball. They rank 119th overall in yards per play allowed, which include allowing 6.0 yards per attempt on the ground (122nd in the country). That’s a recipe for disaster against Florida, who is still ranked first in the country in yards per rush despite the hiccup against Kentucky.
The expectation should be a bunch of three-and-outs from the Florida defense and then a dominating performance by Florida on the ground. But I’m not sure that’s what will actually happen.
I’m still not sure Florida’s defense is all that good. Kentucky’s Will Levis had been regressing in every game this season and continued against the Gators. Florida’s defense is still ranked 63rd in the country in yards per play allowed and so is going to give up a few drives and potentially even a few big plays.
It won’t be near enough for Vanderbilt, but since Florida is likely going to run the ball a ton, they aren’t going to get a ton of possessions. I know Florida is likely going to be angry after the loss to Kentucky, but that’s going to mean pressing on their advantage up-front.
Florida is a 38.5-point favorite. Mullen has only beaten one FBS opponent by more than 38 points in his time in Gainesville. Now, that opponent was Vanderbilt, but that was also in 2019 when Kyle Trask was starting to prove who he was at QB.
I think Florida wins convincingly. I think it gives us some hope heading into the LSU and Georgia games. I think Anthony Richardson probably busts a couple of explosive plays and starts the noise about whether he should be starting again.
But 38.5 is a lot of points. I’m taking Vanderbilt to cover.
Florida (-38.5) wins, 42-10.
Picks thus far: 4-1 straight up, 3-2 ATS.
Mark Stoops vs. Dan Mullen
For years now, we’ve been comparing Dan Mullen to Kirby Smart.
I’ve written a bunch of articles comparing the two, but I’ve never really compared Mullen to the other SEC East coach who has had moderate success but hasn’t been able to win an SEC title yet: Mark Stoops.
It’s actually a really flattering comparison to Stoops, especially if you compare their records since 2018 when Dan Mullen took over at Florida.
Stoops is now 28-14 against FBS opponents since 2018, with a 10-win season, an 8-win season and what looks to be another 10-win season this year. He has made his living taking on lower-level teams, going 14-0 against teams to finish their campaigns with a sub-.500 record.
But that’s where things get interesting. When you look at teams with a record equal to or greater than .500, Stoops is now 14-11 if you project Louisiana-Monroe, South Carolina and Florida to all finish with a winning record.
Dan Mullen’s record against those same teams? 14-11.
This is a little bit of an unfair comparison because Mullen has played 12 teams with a winning percentage above .700 while Stoops has only played 6 such games. But Mullen hasn’t had much success in those games, going 3-9 in the 12 games while Stoops is 1-5.
That means that exactly what you’d expect – that Mullen would outperform Stoops against teams with records between .500 and .700 – is exactly what you see. Mullen feasts there, with a 14-2 record, only losing to Missouri in 2018 and LSU in 2020 while Stoops has a respectable 13-6 record against those teams.
So anyone telling you that Florida would have been better off with Mark Stoops as head coach is not looking at these numbers. Stoops is beating the teams he should – and has even gotten Florida a couple of times – but he is susceptible to losing to average teams from time-to-time.
Mullen rarely loses to average teams. His problem is when he plays a 10-win team, he hasn’t been able to get the job done all that often. In that context, the loss to Kentucky actually stings a little bit less as I do believe Kentucky will fit that category by the end of the year.
Of course, this also tracks exactly with the main criticism of Mullen: his recruiting.
The question has never been whether Mullen will be able to get Florida beat Vanderbilt, Missouri and South Carolina consistently. The question is whether he can beat LSU, Alabama and Georgia consistently. His record thus far indicates that is still wishful thinking.
And compare that record to his nemesis at Georgia, Kirby Smart. Smart has gone 57-14 overall, with a 10-7 record against teams with a .700 winning percentage and a 24-4 record against teams with winning percentages between .500 and .700. The problem for Smart is that while Mullen is 18-0 against teams with a sub-.500 record, Smart has three losses.
Two of those came in his first season in Athens, but the 2019 loss to South Carolina was such a choke job that it – combined with inexplicable losses to Alabama twice when Georgia had the Tide on the ropes – is a big reason why I decided to name an award after the guy.
I think if you asked most Gators fans in a quiet moment whether they’re rather have Smart at the helm or Mullen, they’d pick Smart. The recruiting is just such a powerful force from the standpoint that it gives you hope every year.
Of course, Georgia fans have learned hope is a dangerous thing. Because sometimes you win. But sometimes…..you lose to Will Muschamp.
1980 Reasons to root for Georgia
Do you have friends who root for Georgia?
Perhaps you’re from that state (don’t worry, we’ll let you claim you’re from Florida) and have family and friends who like the Bulldogs? Or maybe you went and got a job in Atlanta after graduation because a Florida degree goes further in that city than a Georgia degree does.
Well, whatever your reasons, have I got a deal for you. For the low, low price of $19.80, you can own your very own copy of my new book: 1980 Reasons to Root for the Georgia Bulldogs: A Tragedy and a Parody.
Engross yourself in 124 pages that detail the history of the Georgia football program. Then give it as a gift to your friends who are Georgia fans. The pages are filled with an opportunity to relive all of the national championships that Georgia has won since I’ve been alive.
Some quotes from the back cover singing this book’s praises:
“This book fully describes my experience as a Georgia Bulldog.” – Justin Fields
“Three of the six times I’ve read this book, I’ve really enjoyed it.” – Treon Harris
This book really does attempt to capture the essence of what it is to be a Georgia football fan. The good news is that because all of the pages are blank, if they do happen to win a title in the next 40 years, the book will also be really useful in the Auburn library.
Thanks everybody, for your support!