Game Preview: Florida looks to redeem itself for last year’s LSU loss

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Last season, 8-1 Florida hosted 3-5 LSU in the Swamp and had distinct advantages in every single category.

The Gators had the 6th ranked offense in yards per play compared to 78th for LSU. The Tigers had the 125th ranked defense compared to 54th for the Gators. LSU was abysmal against the pass (127th) while Florida had an elite passing offense (8th).

Florida had a Heisman-trophy seeking QB in Kyle Trask. LSU had benched T.J. Finley after the game against Alabama and was handing over the keys to true freshman Max Johnson. LSU was a MASH unit and was missing many of its top players, including Derek Stingley, Terrace Marshall and Arik Gilbert.

Of course, the Gators summarily lost the game and took all the air out of the SEC Championship Game the next week against Alabama.

This season, 4-2 Florida is traveling to face 3-3 LSU in Baton Rouge, and the Gators have distinct advantages in every single category.

Florida is ranked 3rd overall in offense compared to 52nd for LSU. Florida is ranked 18th in defense compared to 90th for LSU. The Tigers are terrible against the run (106th ranked) while the strength of Florida’s team is its running game (1st). LSU is terrible running the ball (119^th) and Florida’s defensive line is its strength.

This should be a blowout. Vegas certainly thinks so, as Florida is an 11.5 point favorite, which is a huge differential considering how close this game usually is.

But we all have PTSD from last season and until those demons are exorcised, we’re going to tread lightly.

Lies, Lies and Statistics

So the first thing I think is important is to understand why Florida lost last year’s game even though they had such an advantage overall coming in. The answer is pretty simple: mistakes.

The Gators were terrible in the red zone, unable to convert a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line on the opening drive. Later in the game, they had a first-and-goal from the 9-yard line and ended up settling for a game-tying field goal instead of going up by four with a touchdown.

But Florida won the yardage battle, 609-418. The Gators barely lost the running battle 179-135, but on 24 less carries (50 to 26). The Gators dominated through the air (474-239). But LSU won the turnover battle decisively, 3-0.

Two of those were interceptions by Kyle Trask, one a pick-6 and another deep in LSU territory. Combine that with the fumble by Trask at the end of the first half that LSU converted into a field goal, and his turnovers were responsible for 13 LSU points.

The pick-6 – along with the infamous double-corner blitz that opened up a 34-yard TD to Kayshon Boutte – led to LSU having a 24-17 lead going into halftime. And then came the fog.

Antonio Valentino this week said that the Swamp last year looked like the Michael Jackson Thriller video, and it was certainly surreal. For those of us who’ve lived in Gainesville, that kind of fog isn’t all that unusual, but it certainly is in December at that time of night.

The result was that Florida’s elite passing game all of a sudden became far less potent as the Gators had three straight three-and-outs. Kadarius Toney finally had enough and took over on the game-tying drive, opening up the drive with a 31-yard run before Kadarius Toney took over and a 15-yard reception to push into LSU territory.

And of course, then came the shoe toss.

I’m rehashing these events just to point out one thing. Look at all of the crazy things that had to go wrong for Florida to lose that game. The shoe toss was the final straw, but the turnovers, the fog, the red zone struggles and then eventually, Evan McPherson missing a 51-yard field goal after a desperation 42-yard drive with 23 seconds left all had to go against the Gators for LSU to come out on top.

What are the odds of that happening two years in a row?

Coming into the game, the 2020 Gators had scored 378 points and allowed 226, for an expected winning percentage of 73.7 percent. The 2021 Gators come into this game having scored 199 points and having allowed 99 points, for an expected winning percentage of 80.2 percent. Amazingly, based on point differential, this team is better than last year’s.

Now that’s a little bit misleading because the 2020 team only played SEC opponents, but the same applies for LSU, who has only defeated McNeese State, Central Michigan and Mississippi State (barely). The Tigers also were dominated by a Kentucky team last week that Florida, quite honestly, should have beaten.

There are a few things to watch out for.

LSU is ranked 41st in the country in yards per pass attempt and Florida has a proclivity for surrendering big plays through the air. The Gators have given up 18 explosive (20+ yard) plays this season on defense and 16 of those have been through the air.

Florida is ranked 118th in penalty rate, with the 8-penalty affair against Vanderbilt serving as a major improvement compared to the 15 penalties against Kentucky. Baton Rouge isn’t going to be its normal crazy self with an 11am local-time start, but I can’t imagine Death Valley being quieter than Kroger Field.

Finally, Florida lost last year’s game because of turnovers. This year’s Gator team is ranked 95th in turnover differential, with almost all of those turnovers coming at the hands of Emory Jones.

But Max Johnson is just an average QB. By my Yards Above Replacement (YAR) metric, he is at -0.06, having contributed nothing in the running game (39 attempts for -3 yards) and just barely rating out above average in yards per pass attempt (7.9). His QB rating is very good (149.9), but that is because he has thrown 17 TDs compared to just 4 INTs this year.

Compare that to Emory Jones, who has a YAR of 1.02 thus far in 2021 (essentially equivalent to Jake Fromm at Georgia in 2017 and 2018). While it doesn’t feel like Jones has been that good, a big part of that is because of his inconsistency. Through the air, he’s been almost as good as Johnson (QB rating = 141.7), but there are the 7 INTs there on his record that make you pause.

Florida once again has a significant statistical advantage against LSU. But mistakes have stopped the Gators all season. That’s the thing that kept the Tigers in the game last year and allowed them to pull out the victory, and it’s the only thing that will keep the Tigers in this one as well.

Film Study

Max Johnson was below average last season though the air, with a QB rating of 134.8 and a YAR of -0.44. This year, he has improved, but only slightly. There has been a lot of talk recently about Emory Jones’ inability to go downfield, but you could say the same about Johnson.

Max Johnson passing statistics by throw depth in 2021. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction, data from secstatcat.com)

The first thing you notice is that LSU rarely throws behind the line of scrimmage. This is great news for the Gators as the weakness of this defense is being able to defend receivers and running backs in the flat.

Johnson has attempted to go downfield more than Jones, but he just hasn’t been very successful. Florida would be happy for him to take shots down the field 11-20 yards downfield and continue completing those at a 45 percent clip. Instead, LSU has to really rely on shorter throws to keep its offense on the field

You can really see that on third down.

LSU is expecting man-to-man coverage on this play. They cross the inside receivers to try and rub one of the corners and free up a receiver. For some reason, Kentucky brings the linebacker covering one of the slot receivers as its fourth rusher, which opens up the receiver for an easy first down.

That wasn’t exactly a blitz, but because Kentucky was bringing pressure from a non-standard place, it opened up the short throw. You could see the same thing later in the game as well.

On this play, Kentucky runs a zone blitz, dropping the linebacker closest to the line of scrimmage and bringing another linebacker to rush. Again, Kentucky was trying to disguise what it was doing, but that meant the safety had to come up from far away to make the tackle. This should be an easy first down, but instead LSU drops the pass.

Based on what I saw against Kentucky, I think trying to confuse Johnson is an unwise course of action. He is able to diagnose a blitz and get the ball to the right player on a regular basis. In fact, that’s what killed Florida against LSU last season over and over again.

Instead, the solution is to make him throw the ball down the field.

On this play, Kentucky drops its middle linebacker deep into coverage. This is a classic cover-2 look and Johnson delivers the ball to the right place, over the middle to his slot receiver. But he just doesn’t have the ability to fit the ball into that tight of a space.

That is a theme when you watch Johnson. He usually knows where to go with the ball, but when you make him throw against zone coverage, he struggles because his arm just isn’t strong enough.

On this play, Kentucky drops just about everybody into coverage (it is third-and-long) and only rushes three (the fourth rusher is because the running back stayed in to block). Johnson tries to fit the ball in between four defenders and almost throws an interception because of it.

The last two plays were both third-and-long, which is why Johnson is throwing the ball down the field. He also predominantly takes deep shots on first down (17 of his 25 20+ yard throws are on first down). Once you get to third down, 64 percent of his throws are between 1-10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Florida should be able to squeeze Johnson with zones in those situations, have the safeties sit on intermediate routes and potentially push the turnover battle in Florida’s favor.

Takeaway

This is a mediocre LSU team.

Yes, they should be taken seriously because 1) Florida isn’t good enough to take any team for granted and 2) last year should teach us our lesson.

But still, absolutely everything had to go wrong for Florida to lose that game last year. The Gators defense is better this year and the offense – at least statistically – actually compares favorably with last year’s team. Combine that with LSU’s futility stopping the run and Florida’s ability to push teams around this year and this should be a runaway for the Gators.

The only thing that stops that from happening is turnovers.

Just like last year when turnovers made a game that should have been an easy win a dog fight, Emory Jones holds this one in his hands. He has thrown at least one interception in every game the Gators have played this season, so I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll be able to avoid turning the ball over. But I’m not sure that Florida is going to put the ball in the air all that much in this one until they’ve pulled comfortably ahead.

And while Todd Grantham tried to pressure Johnson last season to very little success, you’d have to believe that with all of the tape on Johnson he now has that he would dial back his desire to bring pressure and force Johnson to fit the ball into tight spots.

If he does that, Florida is going to be able to at least offset any turnovers that might come from Jones. The Gators lost last season 37-34 after gift wrapping 13 points for the Tigers due to turnovers. I think they end up with an even turnover battle in this one and those points go away.

Florida (-11.5) wins, 37-21.

Picks this year: 5-1, 3-3 ATS.