Dan Mullen is at a crossroads. Should fans give him more time?

Embed from Getty Images

Sports are so much fun because they can always teach you something, even when you’re not expecting it.

The early college football games were way better than the late games on Saturday, so I found myself drifting over towards the National League Championship Series as the Braves took on the Dodgers. I happened to tune in right as the game went to the bottom of the fourth inning tied at 1-1.

The Dodgers got two outs relatively quickly, but then LA pitcher Walker Buehler walked Atlanta catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Next, Atlanta manager Brian Snitker decided to pinch hit for his pitcher with Ehire Adrianza, who broke his bat but managed to keep it fair for a double. Eddie Rosario then had the biggest hit of the game as he homered off of Buehler after fouling off a couple of nasty pitches with two strikes.

Why do I bring this up?

Well, it got me thinking of a concept in baseball analytics called Base Runs. The idea is that sometimes baseball teams string together hits in a way that is purely luck-based and that the luck defines the outcome.

Just think about it for a minute. What if Buehler had given up the home run to d’Arnaud, then walked Adrianza and given up the double to Rosaria. That would have resulted in only one run for the Braves rather than the three that put the Dodgers on their heels.

The same thing can happen in football, and that’s particularly true if you look at this year’s Florida Gators.

Analytics vs. Results Disconnect

You’re not going to get me to argue that a 4-3 record is acceptable for any Florida Gators team. Analytics are important, but you have to convert those numbers into wins.

However, I do think analytics are important when we’re trying to assess the direction of the program. I’ve been asked multiple times by various fans whether I still support Dan Mullen as the head coach, and I only know one way to answer that question: look at the numbers.

And what the numbers say is that there is a major disconnect between Florida’s record and the overall team performance. That may be of little comfort to those who expected an SEC Championship this year, but it should point towards better days ahead.

For example, in the simplest of measures, Florida has outscored its opponents this year by a 241-148 margin. That typically translates into a winning percentage of 73%, or 5.1 wins. That means that Florida has underperformed its scoring differential by more than a win.

If we look at efficiency-based metrics, Florida grades out really well. The Gators rank 7th in ESPN’s FPI. They rank 5th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ and 8th in Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings. And then there’s this:

📊Opponent Adjusted EPA/play – Wk 7

▫️Bama joining OSU & UGA
▫️Pitt: not just for sickos
▫️UF w/ 3 Ls but all >50% win probability 🤦‍♂️
▫️CFB is more fun when the middle class is deep
▫️OU w huge jump in Off EPA
▫️God Bless Purdue pic.twitter.com/rwXBzoR2hd

— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 17, 2021

This is prior to Week 8, but the Gators’ Expected Points Added (EPA) didn’t change during the bye week. The reality is that the Gators have been one of the better teams in the country when you look at both their offensive and defensive performances overall.

On offense, this is in large part driven by their ability to run the ball, where even after a poor performance against LSU, the Gators still rank third in yards per attempt. That stat tanked on the defensive side of the ball (to 51st) after getting dominated on the ground against the Tigers, but the Gators still rank 23rd in that category coming into the game against Georgia.

So what to make of all this? I think it suggests that the Gators are capable of being a really good team. I think it also suggests that they have been somewhat unlucky to lose three games thus far.

Better to be lucky than good

The first place to start when you’re talking about luck is one-score games. Typically, those games are 50/50 propositions.

We experienced this from 2015-2017 where Jim McElwain had some sort of magic fairy dust as the Gators started 9-1 in one-score games before the bottom fell out in 2017 against Texas A&M and LSU. The issue with McElwain’s teams it that the 9-1 record in close games hid what anybody watching those teams knew in 2015 and 2016: they were decidedly average.

You see that when you look at many of the same analytic rankings I mentioned earlier, but we’ll cite ESPN FPI here for brevity. The 2015 Gators ranked 29th in the FPI but went 5-1 in one-score games. That 10-4 record could have easily been 7-5 without an SEC East banner had they gone 3-3 in those games rather than 5-1 (remember, that team beat Vandy 9-7, FAU 20-14 and East Carolina 31-24).

The 2016 team was a little bit better, ranking 22nd in the FPI. But again, the Gators were 2-0 in one-score games, escaping Vanderbilt 13-6 and LSU 16-10 on a goal-line stop. How much different does that season feel if Darrius Guice isn’t stopped at the one-yard line?

The Gators then fell to 50th in the FPI rankings in 2017, and went 2-3 in one-score games, which facilitated McElwain’s departure.

So why do I bring this up? Well, Florida has been a much better team under Dan Mullen thus far, but still had some fairy dust early on. The 2018 Gators ranked 11th in the FPI, but still had some significant success in one-score games (3-0).

They beat up LSU in the 27-19 win in the Swamp, but Mississippi State could have easily won in Mullen’s return to Starkville and the 35-31 win over South Carolina was almost out of reach before a pretty incredible comeback.

The 11-2 Gators in 2019 were legit. They ranked 9th in the FPI but also went 3-1 in one-score games (Miami, Kentucky, Georgia and Virginia). The offensive efficiency went way up with Kyle Trask at QB, which is why the FPI had them ranked higher.

Last season, Florida was ranked 11th in the FPI yet again. This time, the Gators weren’t lucky, going 0-3 in one-score games (Texas A&M, LSU and Alabama), which is part of what led to the 8-4 overall record.

And now we have this year, where the Gators are ranked 7th in the FPI but are 4-3 after going 0-3 in one score games (Alabama, Kentucky and LSU) yet again.

Dan Mullen was excoriated for pointing out that his team outgained Kentucky in the Gators loss, but upon closer inspection, he wasn’t wrong about that. If you look at collegefootballdata.com, these are the post-game win expectancies for the Gators based on the efficiency metrics for each game.

• FAU – 99%
• USF – 100%
• Alabama – 91%
• Tennessee – 99%
• Kentucky – 60%
• Vanderbilt – 100%
• LSU – 7%

The Gators got dominated by the Tigers. But other than that, they should probably have won the rest of their games with the Kentucky game being close to a toss-up.

Again, I know this doesn’t make anybody feel better about 4-3, but it should make fans feel much about what’s coming in 2022. The analytics say that this Gators team is just as good as the 2018, 2019 or 2020 teams were.

So what in the heck is happening then?

All that is great, but the Gators are still 4-3. What is going on?

Well, the first place to look is turnovers. It’s no secret this has been a sore spot for the Gators, as they have had at least one interception in every game thus far. But it’s a stat related to interceptions that I want to examine, as I think that tells an interesting story.

According to SEC Stat Cat, Kyle Trask had an interceptable percentage (number of throws that could have been intercepted) of 7.78 percent. However, the opposition only intercepted 1.83 percent of his throws. The result is that only 23 percent of his throws that could have been picked were actually picked.

If we look at both Anthony Richardson and Emory Jones this year, 9.9 percent of their throws are considered interceptable balls by Stat Cat’s metrics. However, 5.6 percent of their total throws have actually been intercepted, meaning 57 percent of the throws that could have been intercepted have turned into interceptions.

That really isn’t a sustainable rate. Trask in 2019 had a 7.63% interceptable rate with a 1.98% intercepted rate. Feleipe Franks in 2018 had a 6.02% interceptable rate with a 2.01% intercepted rate. Throws are inaccurate all the time, with balls either sailing over the receiver, tipping off the receiver’s hands or getting thrown behind the receiver. Usually, those throws fall harmlessly to the ground. That just hasn’t been the case for the Gators in 2021.

The other thing to consider is the inconsistency of this team. That’s obvious when you think about how they lost the three games they did.

Against Alabama, Florida couldn’t get out of its own way in the first quarter against Alabama and then dominated the second quarter and a large chunk of the second half. It took a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown to turn the game against Kentucky, but the Gators (averaging 34.4 point per game) were only able to score 13. And against LSU, when the offense finally got things going and put up 42, the defense couldn’t stop a counter and got run out of the building by perhaps the worst rush offense in the SEC.

This goes to my Base Runs commentary earlier. Had the Braves gotten the Rosario home run first, the Dodgers tie that game at two. Had the Gators given up the blocked field goal against Alabama or had all of the false start penalties against LSU, they win the other games. It’s only been a perfect confluence of events – with a failure in one aspect of the game in each – that has cost the Gators all three.

That inconsistency shows up best at the QB position. Emory Jones has a QB Rating of 138.6, which isn’t too far off of what Feleipe Franks had in 2018 (143.4). Say what you will about Franks, but he was remarkably consistent, good or bad.

Franks’ QB rating was terrible (108.1, 110.1, and 73.0) in the Gators three losses. He was bad against LSU even though Florida got that win. Every other game, his QB Rating was above 124.

Jones has been all over the map. He has QB ratings of 219 and 167 against Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But he has QB Ratings of 96 and 116 against FAU and Alabama. You just never know what you’re going to get, which means that you’re apt to be able to put up 40 points, but you’re also apt to only be able to put up 13.

I wrote an article about Jones and QB Rating during the offseason. The point was that Dan Mullen’s QBs have historically supplied something in the running game, and that the offense’s ability to score would come down to QB Rating. Here’s the chart from that article.

If you combine Jones’ and Richardson’s stats, you get a combined QB Rating of 144.8 for both of them. Using the chart above, that should translate to approximately 34 points per game. Florida is at 34.4, or exactly where we would think they should be based on QB performance.

If we do the same thing with the defense, we get a QB Rating of 119.7 for the season, which should translate to about 27 points per game, rather than the 21.1 the Gators have surrendered.

And therein lies where I think the disconnect is coming from. This defense has feasted on poor offenses (two cupcakes, Vandy, Kentucky) and got lucky to not get lit up by Tennessee. Vanderbilt could have easily put up 13 points in the first half if not for its own issues, and for much of the year it has felt like the defense is teetering on the edge of getting run out of the building. LSU just finally did it.

Against Alabama, Tennessee and LSU, the Gators have surrendered QB Ratings of 148.7, 144.2 and 146.1. Against USF, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the Gators have surrendered QB Ratings of 102.6, 91.8 and 77.1. Combine that with a stunning lack of turnovers (6 in 7 games), and it’s the same old Todd Grantham story: play well against overmatched opponents and then get torched by good offenses.

Even still, there were opportunities for the defense to make a play in each game thus far that could have turned the game.

Who can forget this one? Florida had Alabama on the ropes, and if Brenton Cox intercepts this one, he might have taken it the other direction for a touchdown. Certainly, the way Florida was dominating up-front, it would have given the Gators an opportunity to take the lead. Instead, Alabama punched the ball in for a touchdown later in the drive to go up 28-16.

And while it’s easy to forget, Florida had Kentucky on the ropes, ready for a knockout blow after Tre’Vez Johnson intercepted Will Levis and returned the ball to the Kentucky 10-yard line with the Gators up 10-7.

But Antonio Valentino (highlighted) was penalized for an illegal crack back block (correctly) well away from the play. Not only was it unnecessary, but it is something that has been an area of emphasis for officials over the past couple of years. This is what led to the ball being moved backwards to a place where Florida had to attempt a long field goal…..and we know what happened to that.

And even against LSU, the defense had a chance early when the Tigers were on the ropes, already down 6-0 and doubting themselves.

This is a terrible decision by LSU QB Max Johnson. His receiver is double bracketed, but he throws it because he is under heavy pressure from Princely Umanmielen. At worst, this should be incomplete. At best, Jeremiah Moon intercepts the ball and Florida ends the first quarter with a 6-0 lead, the ball and all of the momentum.

Instead, two plays into the second quarter, LSU hit an 18-yard run on a counter and the Tigers were ahead 7-6 and Florida was in a dog fight.

Recruiting Woes

I’m not a big fan of Dan Mullen’s recruiting, and have made no secret of that fact going all the way back to his 2019 class before he ever coached a game. One statement from that article seems particularly relevant given the current circumstances Florida finds itself in.

“I’ve learned my lesson from the McElwain era. Yes, there are outliers who win championships (Clemson, Auburn) but those teams have transcendent QBs (Watson, Newton). Unless Joe Burrow is coming to Gainesville, I don’t see a transcendent QB on the roster.”

You could make the argument back in 2018 that Mullen just needed to show what he could do on the field and the recruits would come. I didn’t agree with that assessment at the time and have been proven correct on that point, as Mullen has recruited at the exact same level every year he’s been in Gainesville.

But I also think it’s hard to blame this season’s results specifically on talent. After all, while LSU is 5th in the 247Sports roster rankings, about half of its team was missing last weekend. And while Alabama ranks first, Kentucky is ranked 31st overall, well behind the 7th ranked Gators.

To me, the issue is what Florida is doing with the talent it does have. Look at the list of Gators with the highest overall rankings and tell me who is really a difference maker? Justin Shorter is the highest ranked player. He’s been average thus far.

Then comes Gervon Dexter (good, but not dominant), Demarkcus Bowman (who?), Brenton Cox (disappointing), Lorenzo Lingard (who, part two). It’s not until you get to Jason Marshall and Kaiir Elam that you really get to a high level of production, but then it’s hit or miss with a lot of production coming from lower ranked players.

Would I like to see recruiting get better? Absolutely.

But to expect that to happen now – under this regime – is pretty much fruitless. They have a way of doing things that includes finishing fourth or fifth in the SEC in recruiting. I think that’s short-sighted, and a really tough way of doing things.

But if you’re going to do things that way, you have to get your high-end talent to perform. Thus far, that’s been a struggle.

Takeaway

So I started this by talking about what fans are asking me: should Florida move on from Dan Mullen?

It’s an interesting question, as I can see all sides of the argument. You’re never going to have problems scoring points with Mullen in charge, but you’re also going to have all of your talent hit at the exact same time to catch that “lightning in a bottle” type season that leads to a championship.

I think a lot of Gators fans think Florida missed that window last year, with Kyle Trask and an explosive offense clearly hampered by a porous defense. But I think they may be missing what looks to be a really good team in 2022.

Consider what I said in the recruiting section above. It is clear that to be an outlier, you have to hit on a transcendent QB. I don’t know about you, but Mullen looks like he may have done just that with Anthony Richardson, who has NFL personnel folks talking about how he looks like the real deal.

And then take a look at the defense. Todd Grantham’s contract runs out after this year, and if he is brought back, I’ll storm the Swamp with pitchforks in solidarity with you all.

But look at Grantham’s personnel this year. The only players from the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes who are starters are Kaiir Elam and Mohamoud Diabate. That’s terrible considering the 2019 class was supposed to be the “bump” class that took the Gators forward into the Mullen era.

But look at the young players who are getting major playing time this year and will be back in 2022.

• Gervon Dexter (5-star) – Starter
• Rashad Torrence (4-star) – Starter
• Avery Helm (4-star) – Starter
• Mordecai McDaniel (4-star) – Major minutes as backup
• Tre’Vez Johnson (3-star) – Starter
• Jason Marshall (5-star) – Starter
• Desmond Watson (3-star) – Major minutes as backup

Elam is probably off to the NFL, but if Diabate, Cox and Ventrell Miller come back with a new defensive coordinator, you’re looking at a defense that should be decent, if not nasty.

We don’t have to look too far into the distance to find a team that was able to put a season like that together. Ed Orgeron took over LSU in September of 2016. Those Tigers went 8-4 but finished 6th in the ESPN FPI. In 2017, they finished 9-4 and 14th in the FPI. In 2018, they brought in my favorite transfer QB, but finished 17th in the FPI despite going 10-3.

But that 2018 season is interesting now that we know what was coming in 2019. LSU was incredibly inconsistent, beating Auburn 22-21 and Georgia 36-16 but losing to Texas A&M in a 74-72 thriller that helped change the overtime rules. I remember rooting for them against the “National Champion” UCF in the Fiesta Bowl and wondering how anyone could enjoy rooting for a team that was so Jekyl and Hyde as they dominated the Knights but couldn’t put them away.

Burrow wasn’t just inconsistent, but really downright bad for the first 9 games of the season. But then something happened after the Tigers got dominated by Alabama. Some sort of light turned on against Arkansas and he finished the season with QB ratings of 165.1, 187.1, 151.5 and 192.0 and threw 10 TDs versus 1 INT (after having 6 TDs and 4 INTs in the first nine games).

In other words, nobody knew it yet, but LSU had found their elite QB.

So that’s my answer to the Mullen question. I think he has the rest of this season and this offseason to train Anthony Richardson to be his elite signal caller in 2022. I think he has to hit on whomever he decides to bring in at defensive coordinator.

Those people who are complaining about his recruiting now after not complaining about it previously are disingenuous. From the start, this was always a question of whether Mullen could hit on a QB good enough to overcome some of his roster limitations compared to Georgia and Alabama.

This program is exactly what we’d expect based on the recruiting thus far. It’s a top-10 program that needs a jolt from a special talent to push it over the top.

The 2021 Gators are absolutely disappointing, but they are not McElwain 2017 (50th in FPI) or even Muschamp 2013 (36th) or 2014 (22nd) bad. Those programs were heading in the wrong direction, but the analytics suggest this is more a year where everything that could go wrong has gone wrong rather than a program in decline.

And neither of those guys had Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings.