Air Raid: An advanced stats look at the Florida-Georgia passing games

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Introduction

Hey everyone, my name is Bud Davis, and I’m excited to be joining Read & Reaction this week to help preview this 99th playing of the WLOCP. This post will focus on the passing matchup between Florida and Georgia, and build off my previous post that focused on the rushing game. The Bulldogs have a decided advantage in the passing game, with the #4 Passing Offense (10 yards-per-attempt; ypa), and the #1 Passing Defense (5.0 ypa). In a turnaround from last year, Florida actually has a decent Passing Defense at 6.4 ypa (#24 in the nation), but the Passing Offense is much more middling at 8.0 ypa (#49). While UGA’s Pass Defense is certainly good, it’s worth noting that they really haven’t been tested by a true passing offense (Auburn @ 7.2 ypa; Arkansas @ 216 ypg). This is important to note, because in the NFL, it’s been observed that the quality of the opposing QB is almost 3X more predictive of defensive performance, than the past performance of the defense itself. While the run-game will probably get most of the media attention, I really think this game will be decided by which passing defense can limit explosive plays or force turnovers.

EPA

Before we get started, let’s quickly talk about the primary stat I’ll use for this analysis: Expected Points Added (EPA). When we watch a football game we all intuitively know that not all yards are created equal. For an offense, gaining 3 yards on 3rd & 2, is much more valuable than gaining 8 yards on 3rd & 10. This is where Expected Points are useful. Expected Points are just an estimate (based on historical data) of the number of points an offense is expected to score on a given drive, based on situational factors like Down, Distance, & Yards to Goal. For each play we can look at the Expected Points Added to see if the play made it more likely for the offense to score (positive EPA) or more likely for the defense to prevent a score (negative EPA).

Reading the Plots

In the below Box-and-Whisker plots we can see how well passing concepts have performed for each offense and defense in 2021. More-common offensive passing concepts are at the top of the charts, while less common concepts are at the bottom. The right side of the graphic denotes positive EPA/attempt values, indicating success for the offense. While the left side of the graphic indicates negative EPA/attempt, or success for the defense. When I read these charts, I start by looking for the median value (the line in the center of each box), which indicates, in aggregate, how a concept has performed for each offense/defense. Then I look at the quartile range (the box edges), to see the range of likely outcomes for each concept.

In the Passing Heatmap plots, the field is broken up into zones. Each zone is colored by how easy they are for an offense to throw in. Green zones represent relatively easy targets for an offense, while purple zones represent areas where an offense may struggle. The zones are colored by average EPA/play, so they might be somewhat skewed by large EPA swing events such as interceptions or touchdowns.

Florida Offense vs. Georgia Defense

I’m really curious how Florida will probe this UGA defense. When we look at the Georgia Defense passing heatmap, we don’t see many obvious windows for Florida to attack. The Bulldogs have been especially good at attacking down against Screen/Swing passes. As well as defending short (0-10 yards) against the flat and middle of the field. Relative to the rest of the field, opposing offenses have found success throwing against the Bulldogs to the deep (20+ yds) perimeter, and it’s something I’d like to see the Gators attack. Additionally, the Bulldogs are more vulnerable at the intermediate level (10-20 yds) than the short level. Attacking these intermediate & deep zones will requires the UF offensive line to buy enough time for routes to develop.

While the Florida Offense passing heat certainly leaves a lot to be desired, I don’t think the situation is as dire as it might appear. Florida has had relative success with it’s screen and swing pass game, but you’re not beating UGA by dinking and dunking down the field. At the intermediate level (10-20 yds), we see a swath of decent completion percentage boxes all covered purple. This is the level where Jones & Richardson have thrown virtually all of their interceptions. For Florida to have a shot in Jacksonville, both QBs need to be much better with their throws in this ultra valuable, intermediate (10-20 yds) depth of the field. Where Florida’s strengths match up with UGA is in the deeper part of the field (+20 yds). Florida’s offense has been perfectly comfortable and successful throwing those deep shots.

Next let’s look how Florida’s Offense & Georgia’s Defense have done against specific routes. Florida loves the Screen pass and uses it as an extension of the run game. That being said, I really don’t want to see us throwing more than a couple Screens on Saturday. One of the biggest things that jumps out to me about the UGA defense is how well they defend routes with a timed or set break such as Curls, Digs, and Outs. Florida’s WRs have been pretty decent at these concepts, so it should be a solid matchup. There are two routes that I’d really like to see Florida emphasize on Saturday: Slant & Go/Fly. Slants are a fairly common route for UF and it’s one of the routes that has given UGA the most trouble. Go routes offer immense upside and explosiveness, and UGA hasn’t been perfect against them. To win on Saturday, the OL has to give our QB time to at least threaten the vertical attack. As far as routes I don’t want to see, I think throwing a Swing Pass against these UGA LBs is borderline suicide, and I’ve seen enough interceptions on the Deep Cross to Gamble to officially retire that concept. Florida hasn’t targeted many Post or Wheel routes this season, so those might be a new wrinkle for Mullen to sprinkle in.

Georgia Offense vs Florida Defense

Florida’s Passing Defense has been relatively competent in 2021. When we look at their passing heatmap we see that the unit has generally played worse against backfield and short (0-10 yds) throws, but relatively better against intermediate (10-20 yds) and deep (+20 yds) throws. The EPA/play numbers are particularly good when you consider that UF hasn’t had much luck in the way of interceptions. UF’s defense will have to continue to be good against the deep ball to keep Saturday competitive for the Gators.

I really like how Florida’s pass defense lines up relative to where UGA likes to attack. The Bulldogs have found a lot of success, by being a run first team, and then striking a defense at intermediate (10-20 yds) and deep (+20 yds) levels. Stetson Bennett has thrown the ball with a high degree of accuracy at depth, and I’d expect that to continue against Florida. If Florida can generate some pressure or lock down receivers in these deeper zones, I think the defense has the potential to limit the UGA passing game. I’d love to see the Gators force the Bulldogs to dink and dunk their way down the field, relying on screens and flat throws, rather than deeper targets.

The Bulldogs have been relatively aggressive in their route targeting this season. If the Bulldogs aren’t throwing a Screen or Curl, they’re probably throwing it +10 yards to either a Go, Dig, or Out. Overall, the Florida DBs have been relatively good against UGA’s main concepts. Florida has been especially good against Go routes this season, but I fully expect Monken to test that again and again in Jacksonville. The UF defense might be slightly susceptible to the Screen pass, but given its general low explosiveness, I’m fine with that. Florida has also been less than solid against common TE routes in Seam and Deep Cross. Brock Bowers has been a great TE for UGA this season. Don’t be surprised to see him come wide open on a late-developing Deep Cross, or blow right between our two safeties on a Seam. Other than Seam & Deep Cross, I generally like how UF has performed against UGA’s most commonly targeted routes. 

Takeaways

Florida’s passing offense must play their best game of the season for Florida to win this one. If the Gator’s aren’t able to regularly complete intermediate or deep passes, it’s tough to see the offense scoring very many points. Georgia has been relatively vulnerable against Slants and Go routes, two routes I’d love to see the offense execute with efficiency. Additionally, opposing offenses have been able to sting the Bulldogs on the deep perimeter, where CBs are often in one-on-one situations with WRs. I’d like to see Florida give Copeland or Shorter opportunities here if the OL can buy them enough time. To me, the data indicate that if Florida gets conservative, and tries to rely on Screens, Flats, or Swing passes to move the ball, this UGA defense will likely eat them up.

On the defensive side of the ball, Florida is going to be tested by a very aggressive passing offense. Florida’s DBs and Safeties need to continue to limit deeper completions and keep the game in front of them. The routes I’m most worried about involve Brock Bowers (or another slot receiver) finding gaps in the middle on a Seam, or sneaking across the defense for a Deep Cross. I think Florida has a solid chance to stymie this UGA passing offense if they can limit these routes and make Bennett beat them by throwing to WRs in one-on-one situations.