I have a weird level of hope for this one.
I’m not sure where that comes from. Florida has been such an inconsistent team all year long, allowing teams like Vanderbilt to hang with them while Georgia’s biggest competition against the Commodores was whether they would score more points than Vandy got yards.
Everything on paper points towards a big Georgia win. The Bulldogs are just loaded. They have surrendered 46 points all year in their seven games (compared to 148 for Florida). They got good QB play from J.T. Daniels until he got hurt, and have received elite QB play from backup Stetson Bennett in his absence. Tight end Brock Bowers is on every highlight show and is a matchup nightmare.
The advanced stats tell a very similar story. Whether you look at SP+, FPI, F+ or any other advanced metric, Georgia is head-and-shoulders ahead of everyone in the country, not just Florida. Using the Pythagorean Expectation, their point differential suggests that they should have a winning percentage north of 97 percent, which is almost impossible because the equation used is supposed to temper the extremes.
Every single Bulldog game thus far has been a demolition. Using the win probability metric I mentioned in my article defending Dan Mullen earlier in the week, Georgia would win each of its seven games 100 percent of the time if they were able to replicate the stats from those games. Basically, they haven’t slipped up at all, not even a bit.
But they also haven’t faced an offense like Florida’s yet. The Gators have the third-ranked offense in the country based on yards per play. This offense certainly hasn’t felt like the third best in the country, but that’s due in large part to turnovers, particularly interceptions thrown by Emory Jones.
But in a weird twist, neither team is willing to commit to the QB that they’re going to play Saturday. That matters a ton, as there are major differences in the skill sets of Anthony Richardson and Emory Jones, and perhaps even more significant differences between the skill sets of Bennett and Daniels.
Uncertainty at that position is a great equalizer. So too is the freedom that Florida should be able to play with because this truly is their playoff game while it’s just another step towards the playoff for Georgia. And I can’t shake the death-by-wheel-route that we saw last year and wonder what kind of wrinkle we’re going to see this year.
Will Georgia be able to adjust? What if Florida can force a turnover and get up by 10 or 14 points early? Is there the horsepower on the Georgia offense to play catch-up? What if Anthony Richardson starts and is as good as we all think he can be?
Georgia should win this game. It shouldn’t be particularly close.
But have you spoken to a Georgia fan this week yet? They know they should win the game. They know they have an open path to the playoff. And I’ve never seen them more nervous for the Cocktail Party.
Lies, Lies and Statistics
Who normally wins games in college football?
It’s almost always the team that has the best QB on the field, unless you’re giving up 300+ yards to LSU on counters. So who has the best QB in this matchup? I think Gators fans actually have a good case – albeit in an extremely limited sample size – to say that the best QB may be wearing Orange and Blue.
Emory Jones has played okay in spurts. He has turned the ball over way too much, but his per-play averages actually have him at an above-average level (QB rating of 138.6 and YAR of 0.92).
But Anthony Richardson has been otherworldly. Not only is he averaging 10.6 yards per pass, but he’s also averaging 12.4 yards per rush. That equates to a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) of 5.84, which would be the highest I’ve ever recorded going back to 1989. It also equates to a QB rating of 174.1, which is elite-level quarterbacking through the air as well.
So what about J.T. Daniels and Stetson Bennett?
Well, Bennett has been almost as good as Richardson this season, but with a significantly larger sample. Not only does he have a QB rating of 210.9, but he also is averaging 7.8 yards per rush, which helps push his YAR to 4.73. On the flip side, Daniels is a statue behind the line of scrimmage and has not been as effective through the air in his time this year (8.0 yards per attempt). The result is that he has a QB rating of 160.7 and a YAR of 0.23.
I think what Bennett has been doing is unsustainable. He’s going to come back to earth at some point, but he clearly is playing with a ton of confidence. I also think Daniels is better than he’s shown thus far (he had a QB rating of 178.5 last season) and certainly has the stronger arm.
All signs point towards Daniels being the starter when things kick off on Saturday. That’s a major gift for Florida should Kirby Smart make that decision.
That opinion doesn’t actually have a lot to do with either QB’s ability through the air. Even though Florida’s pass defense is much improved from last season and has improved throughout the season, nobody’s going to mistake it for the Legion of Boom.
But based on this year’s stats, it’s not a step down in passing to go with Bennett instead of Daniels. But you do two things when you decide to go with Daniels. You completely eliminate the QB running game, and you open yourself up to a backbreaking turnover should a Todd Grantham blitz be able to get home.
Daniels started for USC in 2018 and had 45 rushes for -149 yards (-3.3 yard per rush average). Because sacks are counted against rushing totals, that’s what we’re really measuring here and the Trojans surrendered 30 sacks in 2018. Daniels was then injured in the opener in 2019 against Fresno State when he was sacked and fumbled the ball away.
The trend continued last year even while Daniels was putting up huge numbers through the air. On the ground, he had 10 rushes for -71 yards, indicating he still hadn’t learned how to get rid of the ball. And this season in very limited action, he has 3 rushes for -15 yards.
At some point, you are what you are, and J.T. Daniels is susceptible to holding on to the ball too long and getting sacked.
On the other side, there’s no doubt that Florida is facing its most stringent test from the Bulldogs defense, but you could say the same thing for Georgia’s defense as well.
Using Football Outsiders F+ ratings, the Gators have the seventh ranked offense. That is far-and-away the best offense Georgia has faced, as their opponents have been, shall we say, offensively challenged. Using those same F+ rankings, the Bulldogs opponents have ranked 45th (Clemson), 101st (South Carolina), 114th (Vanderbilt), 38th (Arkansas), 32nd (Auburn), and 44th (Kentucky).
None of that should diminish what Georgia has accomplished, completely dominating its opponents. But it should be a warning to anybody who expects the Gators to only put up 6 points. If that ends up the case, we might as well hand the Bulldogs the trophy right now.
Also, it’s important to remember that Florida’s offense is ranked that high with Emory Jones getting the vast majority of the snaps. After the way both Jones and Richardson played against LSU, I can’t imagine that the snap distribution doesn’t reverse completely. That means you’re getting a guy who generates an explosive play every 5 touches substituted in for a guy who generates an explosive play every 13 plugged into an offense that already ranks in the top-10.
But this is a huge challenge for Richardson and the Gators. Georgia’s defense is ranked number one overall, surrendering 3.4 yards per play. For comparison, Florida’s defense ranks 23rd at 4.9 yards per play. But if take the difference between Georgia and Florida and add it to Florida’s, you end up with the 112th ranked defense in the country. That’s the kind of separation that Georgia has on the defensive side of the ball.
Georgia isn’t putting much more pressure on opposing offenses this year than they did in 2020. They have a havoc rate (TFL, pass breakups, INTs and forced fumbles divided by total plays) of 19.1 percent compared to 18.2 percent last season. This is well above the national average (~16%) but below where top teams usually end up (> 20%).
Again, this isn’t a criticism of the Bulldogs so much as an observation that their domination isn’t due to creating significantly more hardship on opposing offenses. I do think that suggests that some of their dominance has to do with the inferiority of the offenses they are facing.
The other thing to consider is Florida’s offensive line. That unit has come under some criticism recently, but with a bye week to get healthy, they should be close to 100 percent for this one. And if we look at the advanced statistics, this is a really good unit, but maybe not where you think.
The Gators offensive line ranks 4th in the country in sack rate, 17th in standard downs sack rate, and 5th in pass downs sack rate. This is an elite unit when it comes to preventing pressure on its QB.
In the running game, the stats are a little bit more mixed. Despite ranking really highly in yards per play in the running game, the Gators struggle somewhat when the yards get hard to come by. This shows up in a ranking of 59th in power success rate and 31st in stuff rate. But the reason the Gators are effective on the ground is that the line ranks 9th in opportunity rate, which is essentially how often the line does its job.
What this says is that if Florida has to convert a bunch of third-and-3’s, the Gators are going to struggle. But they likely will have some opportunities to bust big plays in the running game early on, particularly if they can stretch the Georgia defense and make the Bulldogs guard the entire field.
Georgia’s line has some issues this year when we look at the advanced stats. They rank 83rd in power success rate and 29th in opportunity rate. They rank nearly as high as Florida in the pass protection stats, but this does suggest Georgia will have to throw the ball to move the ball consistently against the Gators.
Film Study
To me, there’s one huge theme in this game. Can Georgia take advantage of Florida’s linebackers in coverage. And what will Todd Grantham do to prevent them from doing it?
Here’s an example of one way Georgia might accomplish this.
You see this play a lot in the red zone. Bennett fakes the run to the right, the tight end (Darnell Washington) gets lost in traffic and it’s a huge gain for Georgia. Part of the reason this play is so successful is because Washington is on a linebacker, who is also focused on stopping the run.
I’d expect Georgia to take advantage of Florida’s aggressiveness early. Not only do Florida’s linebackers struggle in coverage, but they’re likely going to be aggressively pursuing the run game early on, which could give Georgia some opportunities using play action.
Here’s another example, this time on a throw to running back James Cook.
Cook runs an angle route, which the Kentucky linebacker overruns. That lets him cut up the middle for an easy touchdown.
And then the coup de grace. This is the one that would keep me up at night were I Todd Grantham.
Bowers pretends to block and Georgia sets up a middle screen. Usually this is called to counteract a blitz, but Kentucky only brings four rushers. That should mean that they have enough defenders out in space to bring Bowers down.
Instead, linebacker Jaquez Jones (#10) misjudges Bowers’ speed and takes a poor angle. The result is Bowers is able to get to the sideline and take it to the house. This was called back for holding 20-yards downfield, but the principle holds.
This is the third play in a row where I’ve shown Georgia picking on Jones, and if you don’t think they’re going to find Jeremiah Moon, you’re crazy. And it isn’t just against Kentucky. Daniels didn’t throw one pass behind the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field last season. He and Bennett have combined for 10 throws to that area this season already.
So what should Grantham do? He has to make it attractive for Georgia to throw to the outside. Pure man-to-man with a single-high safety.
Normally, that is suicide, and it will be if that’s all Grantham does. But in key moments, I think you want Bennett or Daniels’ best option to be going deep. Maybe they hit it or maybe they don’t, but they are absolutely going to hit the throw if it is just a short little pass to Bowers, Jones of Zamir White.
Takeaway
Florida has its work cut out for them.
Georgia is a complete team that has played seven complete games this season. Florida is an inconsistent team that has yet to put together a full 60-minute performance.
It’s going to take some luck to pull this one out. First, Kirby Smart is going to have to start J.T. Daniels and Florida is going to have to sack him and cause a turnover. Anthony Richardson is going to have to play like he did against LSU, minus the interceptions. The Gators linebackers are going to have to hold up against the run and limit the big plays for Bowers and the Georgia running backs through the air.
ESPN’s football power index has Georgia winning 80 percent of the time and I think that’s probably right. Florida has yet to play a game without an interception. They haven’t been creating many turnovers either, with a havoc rate on defense of only 13 percent.
But that’s what it’s going to take. The Gators have to get an elite performance from Anthony Richardson and win the turnover battle. Is that likely to happen? I actually think the first part is more likely than the second.
That’s actually why I think this will be a really entertaining game. I also think Florida fans are going to come out of this one with hope that Richardson is the guy we need for 2022 but still grumbling about the defensive coordinator and how his defense, yet again, couldn’t get off the field.
Todd Grantham’s still around, which means I just can’t pick Florida to take down the best team in the country. I think the Gators keep it close, but aren’t able to close the deal in an offensive battle.
Georgia (-14) wins, 35-28.
Picks this year: 5-2, 3-4 ATS.