In the Trenches: An advanced stats look at the Florida-Georgia run games

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Introduction

Hey everyone, my name is Bud Davis, and I’m excited to be joining Read & Reaction this week to help preview this 99th playing of the WLOCP. One of the most interesting matchups in this game will be Florida’s Rushing Offense against Kirby Smart’s Bulldog Defense. The Gator Offense comes into this game averaging a ridiculous 6.3 yards-per-attempt, which is good for #1 in the country. Against them will be a Bulldog Defense that has been limiting opponent’s to a paltry 2.1 yards-per-attempt, which is the second lowest of any FBS defense. One of these two elite units will fail on Saturday, and it will likely play a large role in determining which team ultimately comes out on top.

EPA

Before we get started, let’s quickly talk about the primary stat I’ll use for this analysis: Expected Points Added (EPA). When we watch a football game we all intuitively know that not all yards are created equal. For an offense, gaining 3 yards on 3rd & 2, is much more valuable than gaining 8 yards on 3rd & 10. This is where Expected Points are useful. Expected Points are just an estimate (based on historical data) of the number of points an offense is expected to score on a given drive, based on situational factors like Down, Distance, & Yards to Goal. For each play we can look at the Expected Points Added to see if the play made it more likely for the offense to score (positive EPA) or more likely for the defense to prevent a score (negative EPA).

Motivation

Before Florida’s loss to LSU, LSU data analyst Jack Marucci informed the Tigers that Todd Grantham’s Florida Defense might be susceptible to Counter rushes (pulling a Guard & Tackle). Marucci had observed that Grantham’s defense struggled to stop Counter last year vs Texas A&M, in the Cotton Bowl vs Oklahoma, and this season vs Kentucky. Marucci’s analysis proved critical in the Gator’s loss in Baton Rouge, as the Florida defense was repeatedly gashed by LSU’s Counter run game.

Tyrion Davis-Price tells us #LSU director of performance innovation Jack Marucci provided LSU with data showing with sets and schemes LSU could run that would set it up best for success.

He gives Marucci a ton of credit for helping create the rushing dominance today.

— Brody Miller (@BrodyAMiller) October 16, 2021

Using charting information from Sports Info Solutions I decided to perform a similar analysis on the WLOCP offenses and defenses. We’ll take a look at what we can expect from the Dan Mullen and Todd Monken rushing attacks next week. Additionally, we’ll quantify exactly how well Todd Grantham & Kirby Smart have stopped specific rushing concepts in 2021.

Reading the Plots

In the below Box-and-Whisker plots we can see how well rushing concepts have performed for each offensive and defensive playcaller in 2021. More-common offensive rushing concepts are at the top of the charts, while less common concepts are at the bottom. The right side of the graphic denotes positive EPA/attempt values, indicating success for the offense. While the left side of the graphic indicates negative EPA/attempt, or success for the defense. When I read these charts, I start by looking for the median value (the line in the center of each box), which indicates, in aggregate, how a concept has performed for each offense/defense. Then I look at the quartile range (the box edges), to see the range of likely outcomes for each concept.

Dan Mullen vs. Kirby Smart

Kirby Smart’s defense has been incredibly good against the rush. Against every rushing concept, the Bulldog Defense’s median EPA/attempt is negative. Smart’s defense has proven especially good against Mullen’s favorite concept, Outside Zone. Very few Outside Zone rushes have generated positive EPA against UGA this season. Smart’s defense has proven slightly weaker (albeit still very good) against Inside Zone and QB Rushes. QB Rushes might be the best opportunity for UF, as the upper quartile of these rushes are the highest of any concept against the Bulldogs. To supplement their rushing numbers, look for Emory Jones & Anthony Richardson to take advantage of scramble opportunities when the UGA defense drops their LBs into deeper zones (see Bo Nix here).

On runs to the outside the tackle (Stretch, Pitches, Option) the UGA defense has been exceptionally good. The speed of the bulldog defense has led to very few positive EPA rushes using these concepts. However, Florida has had a lot of success with the Option run game, and I really like how this run by KJ Jefferson looked against UGA (note that the WR was called for a hold here). I’d much rather run around Jordan Davis (UGA DT  #99), then try to run at or block him. Additionally, while Florida’s receivers might not be fast, they are huge. Shorter has proven himself to be a competent perimeter blocker and I love the idea of Richardson running his way with a full head of steam.

Compared to past Mullen teams, Florida hasn’t run Power much this season. Additionally, Mullen hasn’t even run Counter enough to make this graphic. Power is the lowest variance of any concept vs UGA, and while it hasn’t generated much EPA/attempt, it also has kept the Bulldog defense honest and limited negative plays. As for Counter, it could be an interesting wrinkle, with virtually no 2021 film, for Mullen to add in over the break.

Todd Grantham vs Todd Monken

It’s the battle of the Todds on the less-celebrated side of the ball where Florida’s defense will try to slow down a competent UGA rushing attack. Looking at these matchups, I don’t expect UGA to have to get too cute with things. Florida’s defense has been somewhat susceptible to simple Inside Zone & Outside Zone rushes. If those aren’t working, UGA may follow LSU’s blueprint and mix in some Counter (look for UF to defend by squeeze/spill). Additionally, Stetson Bennett has proved to be a highly effective runner when the opportunity presents itself. I’m expecting at least a one first-down scramble from him.

One of the more interesting matchups on this side of the ball will be how Florida defends UGA’s Pitch run game. Compared to most SEC offenses, UGA loves the Pitch and have used it to generate a ton of EPA. Florida has actually been pretty good at defending Pitches (and other outside-the-tackle runs like Stretch) on the back of their agile LB play. I think the Gators may be able to limit the Bulldog run game on the perimeter, I’m less optimistic for runs against the interior of the Florida defense. A defensive line filled with transfers, an undersized LB corp (really missing Ventrell), and inexperienced set of safeties has really left the Florida defense susceptible to offensive lineman wrecking the second level.

Takeaways

Georgia’s run defense is exceptionally good and devoid of any obvious weaknesses. The Florida offense will have to be creative with their rushing attack. Emory Jones & Anthony Richardson might end up being Florida’s most effective ground weapons. Look for Option and QB runs to create number advantages against the Bulldog defense. Florida hasn’t run much Power or Counter in 2021, Mullen may implement more pulling Guards & Tackle as a novel wrinkle against UGA.

Florida’s run defense is more susceptible than the Bulldogs. If the Gators can limit UGA’s interior run game, this side of the ballgame may actually get competitive. Georgia likes to run to the outside, which has been a relative strength for the Gator defense this season. Look for the Bulldogs to test the Gators on Counter, with a pulling Guard & Tackle, to see if Grantham has tidied that up since LSU. Lastly, watch out for Stetson Bennett, he’s a much more competent runner than Gator fans give him credit for.

Check out tomorrow for a look at the advanced stats related to the passing game for these two teams