Game Preview: Gators should dominate South Carolina, but will they?

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I’m getting this up a little bit late because of a rough week at work. But let’s be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of enthusiasm for this game against South Carolina right now.

Dan Mullen spent his week assuring fans that he does in-fact, actually, care about recruiting. All the while, we’ve seen that the general recruiting results suggest otherwise since 2018.

Add that to the 34-7 shellacking just received from Georgia, the concussion suffered by Anthony Richardson, and some sketchy weather expected in Columbia (52 and showers at game time) and it would be easy to check out.

But I have to remind myself of what it’s like after New Year’s and all of the bowl games are over and the knowledge that I have to wait eight months for kickoff again. I also have to remind myself that while winning these games is awesome, it’s really the connections made before and after the games that makes college football a worthwhile escape.

So just remember: we only get 13 of these every year. Whether we’re 4-4 and going on the road to South Carolina or 8-0 coming off of a huge win over Georgia, the reality is that the season is going to be over before we know it. There will come a time when we get to discuss the season in total, what it means for the coaching staff and where things need to improve.

But for now, just try to enjoy the ride.

Lies, Lies and Statistics

I’ll cite some statistics here, but just know that for the most part, they don’t matter.

The reason they don’t matter is because the stats suggest that Florida is going to win this game going away. The Gators still (!) rank ninth in the SP+ rankings. That’s because two of the four losses have been to the #1 and #3 teams in the rankings and because three of the losses have been by one score or less.

On the other hand, South Carolina is #80 in those same rankings, which is pretty similar to FAU (#83) but better than USF (#109) or Vanderbilt (#114). Florida turned the ball over a lot against FAU and USF and was incredibly inconsistent in those games, but the Gators won both of those games going away.

But this has been a weird week.

After the loss to LSU, Mohamoud Diabate went out of his way to support his teammates, but not his defensive coordinator. And while the Gators’ defense played better against Georgia than they did against LSU, there were still significant issues.

Add to that the lack of players staying behind to sing the alma mater after the loss to Georgia – including Mullen – and you have to wonder how ready the team is going to be to take on the Gamecocks.

Still, the Gators still rank seventh in the country in offense at 6.7 yards per play and first in yards per rush. South Carolina ranks 93rd in yards per rush allowed, meaning that Florida’s strength fits with South Carolina’s weakness.

But one thing to note is that the rushing game hasn’t really been Florida’s strength recently. In its four losses, the Gators rushing game – particularly the QB run game – has been mostly held in check. When that has happened, they haven’t been able to get things going on the ground. That’s really the key to look for in this game; whether Florida can get its QB run game going.

On the other side, South Carolina ranks 108th in yards per play on offense. In particular, the Gamecocks struggle to run the ball, ranking 118th overall at 3.0 yards per carry. Of course, that’s a higher per-carry average than LSU had coming into its game against the Gators.

And we really don’t have much of an idea of what we’re getting from either team at QB. As mentioned, Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion against Georgia. As much as I’ve stumped for Richardson to be the starter, I hope Florida keeps him out for his long-term well-being.

That means Emory Jones would get the nod, and while Jones has been okay, his 9 interceptions are both way too much and have been of the killer variety. While Georgia took shots and Stetson Bennett threw interceptions that Florida corralled deep in its own territory, Florida’s interceptions keep getting either returned for touchdowns or deep in Florida territory.

At some point, those turnovers are going to stop. The ball Richardson threw on his first interception against Georgia normally hits the ground. They’ll hit the ground again soon and Florida should be able to stop putting its defense in bad positions.

But this is a bad game to expect that to happen.

South Carolina has 11 interceptions, but more than that, they have a havoc rate (17.2%) that is just slightly below that of Georgia. Basically, they get to the QB, they force fumbles (9 this year compared to 3 for Florida) and they get the turnover when it’s there.

On the other hand though, while Florida’s havoc rate is low (13.1%), the Gators should benefit from what is a horrible South Carolina offensive line. The Gamecocks rank 107th in sack rate allowed and 85th in opportunity rate (how often the line does its job in the running game). So at the end of the day, Florida should be able to get to the Gamecocks QB and should be able to stop the run.

Gamecock QB Jason Brown is almost a complete unknown. He’s thrown 20 passes this year and only averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. He also only has 2 rushes for -1 yards, so you’re not looking at a guy who is going to concern the Florida defense with having to keep contain. Beyond that, there’s not much of a sample size to evaluate him on other than he has played behind Luke Doty and Zeb Noland, both of whom haven’t been very good in 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing that comforts me about this game is the point differential. While Florida (182) has only given up slightly fewer points than South Carolina (196), the Gators have outscored the Gamecocks 248-167. That differential suggests that the Gators are “really” a 5-win team while South Carolina is “really” a 3-win team.

You can see that by looking at the Gamecock’s game-by-game scores. They are 2-1 in one-score games, with a one-point win over Vanderbilt but have been blown out three times (Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee).

But at the end of the day, games between imperfect teams almost always come down to turnovers. The Gators are -7 in turnovers, which is at the bottom of the FBS (123rd). South Carolina is dead even.

If the turnover margin is zero in this one, the Gators win. But if the Gators give the Gamecocks a couple of short fields, the game could get very interesting.

Film Study

Florida’s defense is getting better. Particularly, the safeties are starting to understand their roles and play much better in pass coverage. It’s not a coincidence that Rashad Torrence had two interceptions against Georgia.

That’s good, because in just 14 throws last week against Texas A&M, South Carolina QB Jason Brown threw two interceptions, and looking at the film gives us a good idea why.

On this play, Texas A&M walks up a safety, meaning that they only have one deep safety. That safety happens to be towards the receiver at the bottom of the screen. That would be fine, except that Brown telegraphs that he wants to take a shot in that direction and stares down the receiver.

The safety actually doesn’t get over to make the play. But what he does do is force Brown to throw the ball to the outside. He underthrows it slightly, which leads to the interception. The key though is that by staring down his receiver, Brown had to make a perfect throw. Had he looked off the safety, he could have led him back towards the field.

The second interception wasn’t any better.

This is a really easy throw out to the flat. But Brown throws the ball significantly behind his receiver, leading to a tipped pass that turns into an interception. Texas A&M is giving up this yardage, but South Carolina is unable to take advantage because Brown is inaccurate.

While Brown has completed 60 percent of his throws, he also has thrown 9 inaccurate balls. Those two interceptions are 10 percent of his throws. The Gators likely will get some chances to get turnovers on Saturday. Whether they can or not may determine the outcome of the game.

Takeaway

I have no feel for this Gators team whatsoever.

This is a team that couldn’t score against Kentucky and couldn’t be stopped in the second halves against LSU and Alabama. This is a team that had people writing about its “elite defense” after the win over Vanderbilt and then had fans calling for Todd Grantham to go (again) after the loss to LSU.

There are just so many questions. Are the team leaders on defense bought in? Who is going to be the QB? Can we get Dameon Pierce more than 6 carries? Does Dan Mullen still want to be here?

We’ll get some answers to those questions in this one.

South Carolina is as bad as FAU. Florida dominated that game, jumping on top 21-0 before two Emory Jones interceptions helped keep the game from getting embarrassing.

South Carolina is also starting its third string QB, has a defense that can’t stop the run and can’t run the ball itself.