It was a frustrating day to be a Florida State or a Florida fan on Saturday (though worse for the ‘Noles).
The final yardage tally (357 Florida, 348 FSU) indicates that this game was about as close as they get. So does the score, as the Gators came out of the Sunshine Showdown with a 24-21 victory.
But as with many times this season, the advanced stats tell a different story. Based on expected points added (EPA), Florida’s win expectancy (how often they would win if the exact same stat line were to occur) was at 88 percent.
So how does a game decided by a field goal and separated by 9 yards of offense look so lopsided by advanced statistics? Anyone who actually watched this one can tell you how.
The Gators dominated the game. It was clear that they were the better team. But they just couldn’t get out of their own way.
There were the back-to-back interceptions to end the first quarter. There was the red zone interception to end the half. There was the three-and-out after a 15-yard punt by Florida State with the Gators already up 7.
Still, the fact that the Gators could be their inconsistent 2021 selves and still beat a hated in-state rival says something about the trajectory of the two programs.
I read multiple articles talking about how Florida State was the program headed up and how Mike Norvell had steadied the ship in Tallahassee this week. But from what I saw against the Gators, Norvell just has the good fortune of playing in the ACC.
This Florida team isn’t great. But the bones of a good team are there under all of the mistakes and undisciplined play, significantly moreso than across the field. That’s what I take away from this game: that Florida playing at maybe 30-40 percent of its best still beat FSU pretty easily.
And that is certainly something for the new coach to build on.
Offense
As has happened all season, Emory Jones started fast with a fantastic touchdown to Kemore Gamble up the sideline. But as has also happened all season, Jones was unable to stop the bleeding once he started turning the ball over.
The first interception – on a flea flicker where he was pressured while throwing – is probably excusable. The Gators were taking a deep shot after a FSU interception and the pressure caused the ball to come up short.
But the next two interceptions were bad. On the first of those, Jones threw the ball right to the FSU linebacker who was drifting over because he had coverage responsibilities on the running back.
It was clear from the pre-snap alignment that FSU was in man-to-man coverage. Jones has to know that and know that the linebacker will vacate the area over the middle. If he doesn’t, the throw should go to Malik Davis coming out of the backfield. If he does, then the throw goes to Trent Whittemore coming over the middle. I can’t see a scenario where this route combination and this defense result in a throw to the outside receiver.
The third interception was just a poor throw. Jones had his man open in the end zone and had to lead him to the ball. Instead, he threw it behind him right to the trailing defender.
Due to the turnovers and generally ineffective play after the opening drive, the Gators only scored 7 points in the first half. It wasn’t until Anthony Richardson came into the game after another poor throw by Jones on the opening drive of the half that the Gators started to put up points (17 on the next four drives).
Richardson didn’t have overwhelming stats. He only threw the ball 7 times for an average of 7.9 yards per throw. He didn’t run the ball all that well either, with 11 rushes for 27 yards, though that is a big misleading because if you eliminate end of game kneeldowns, he did average 5.3 yards per rush.
So what was it about Richardson that led the Gators to be able to score when they hadn’t in the first half?
All season long we have heard from Dan Mullen about how Anthony Richardson misses reads and/or checks that are necessary to run this offense. “He’s still learning” has been the party line. But the one thing he’s never talked about is what happens when the play doesn’t work the way it is supposed to.
This is after the Gators had lost yardage following a muffed punt by FSU. It looked like Florida was going to waste fantastic field position and not get any points after the turnover. Richardson was pressured by just the front-4 of FSU, but he was able to step-up into the void caused by the pass rusher and deliver the ball to Malik Davis.
Now, Davis made a fantastic play to extend this into a first down. But just getting the ball to Davis put the Gators into field goal range.
Compare that to Emory Jones earlier in the game.
On this play, Jones is pressured up the middle and from the right side. He has a lane to step-up into to his left, but instead he decides to let the ball fly to Ja’Quavion Fraziars down the sideline. Throwing to Fraziars isn’t a terrible play as he’s in one-on-one coverage. But he is well guarded and this requires a perfect pass to hit.
Had Jones started running to his left, what does the defense have to do? It has to react to him because he’s such a good runner. That opens up receivers as the zones start to break down. That’s exactly what happened on the Richardson play above. I guarantee you those tacklers were a beat late because they knew they might have to react to Richardson.
But I was thinking about it after the game. When is the last time Emory Jones delivered a pass off-schedule after a scramble? I can’t think of one example off the top of my head. That’s the real difference between the two quarterbacks.
Jones executes what his coaches call better than AR (presumably, otherwise why would he be in there). But when the play doesn’t work, he still tries to execute what the coaches call, even if that means forcing the throw. AR is willing to pull the ball down and freelance.
The flea flicker is a great example. It wasn’t really open and it felt wrong from the start. Pull it down, keep your eyes downfield, or even throw the ball away and live another day. But forcing it in only leads to bad results.
Those bad results kept piling up in the first half and had Gators fans murmuring the same thing they’ve been saying all year: surely Anthony Richardson is a better option.
It also helps when you dedicate an entire drive to your best running back.
After getting only two carries in the first half, Dameon Pierce took over the game with the Gators ahead 17-7 and put a stamp on this one. His 5 carries for 41 yards were a huge part of the drive. But the one play that didn’t even count is the one that left everybody talking, as he powered into the end zone from the 20-yard line, losing his helmet at the 4 but continuing on into the end zone for what looked like a touchdown.
It was poetic justice when Pierce was able to punch the ball in from 3-yards out on 4th down to put the Gators up 24-7.
Pierce has been criminally underused this season, as he’s averaging 5.9 yards per rush on 87 carries. That’s compared to 4.7 and 4.3 yards per rush for Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright, respectively. Those two have received 65 percent of the carries this year, despite significantly lower efficiency.
But that’s really been the story of the 2021 season. Emory Jones hasn’t been good enough to justify taking snaps away from Richardson. Davis and Wright haven’t been good enough to justify taking snaps away from Pierce.
The fact that snaps have been taken away from those two go a long way towards explaining why a new coach is coming to Gainesville.
Defense
Speaking of not giving snaps to difference makers, let’s give another round of applause to linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper. After coming through with 12 tackles and flying all over the place against Missouri, Hopper brought it against FSU as well.
The totals of 9 tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss don’t tell the whole story. Hopper did a great job of getting off of blocks to meet running backs at the point of attack. The entire defense played with an edge, but Hopper was the guy who just jumped off of the screen.
Brenton Cox was in the backfield a ton, totaling 4 sacks, including two on FSU’s drive deep into Gators territory down 10-7. Those two sacks pushed the Seminoles out of field goal range and forced them to punt, allowing Richardson to put together a touchdown drive after FSU muffed the punt.
Cox has been a bit of a disappointment on the edge in 2021, but he showed why he was a highly sought after recruit when he originally committed to Georgia. The good news is we can see the ability. Just as Zachary Carter has likely made himself a considerable amount of money coming back this season and delivering (8 sacks), Cox likely will have that opportunity in 2022 as well.
The same can be said for guys like Kaiir Elam and Mohamoud Diabate.
Jason Marshall acquitted himself quite well against FSU, and with Hopper and Marshall returning, the potential returns of Cox, Elam and Diabate would mean a defense that you could expect would be very salty with the right coordinator.
Of course, this is just FSU. And of course, this is also a defense that helped hold the Seminoles while the offense got things together, but then allowed Florida State two fourth quarter touchdowns to make it a three-point game.
It’s a testament to both of these teams being 5-6 coming in that the game would be decided on a flubbed onsides kick attempt. But it’s also a testament to the potential of Florida’s team that I’m far more excited about what the Gators have coming back in 2022 than FSU fans could be about what’s coming back for theirs.
Takeaway
The Gators gained bowl eligibility by beating their hated rival, and in doing so prevented FSU from going to a bowl themselves.
That may seem like a small thing, but more practice time is always better. Getting used to the time off for when big-time bowls are coming up in the future is a useful exercise. As is getting the stink of the team just packing it in for the Cotton Bowl last year.
A 6-6 record is obviously disappointing. It’s not where this team expected to be, and certainly not with a whole new coaching staff coming in for 2022.
But 6-6 was only possible because of all of the inconsistencies that we saw throughout the year. Against Kentucky and Missouri, the offense stalled when the defense stepped up. Against South Carolina and LSU, the defense couldn’t stop anybody and the offense couldn’t keep up.
Those inconsistencies showed up again against the ‘Noles. Penalties and turnovers were killers all year, and that certainly continued against Florida State. The reality is that 12 games in, that is who this Gators team is.
The good news is that this is at least an 8-win team if all of that gets cleared up. The advanced metrics say this team is way better than its record and so a quick turnaround will be possible in 2022.
But the other good news is that Senior Day reminds us of all of the good things that being a Gator means even if the season doesn’t go as planned. It made my day to see Kemore Gamble – whose mother has been dealing with serious COVID-19 but was finally able to attend a game in the Swamp – excel and get a touchdown pass early. Dameon Pierce gave us a highlight we’ll taunt FSU with for years in a game where he could have packed it in.
And that’s something I’ll remember about this team. When they had the opportunity to pack it in against Alabama, they didn’t do it. When they had the opportunity to pack it in after the losses to LSU, Georgia and South Carolina, they didn’t do it. When they could have rolled over down two touchdowns to Samford, they didn’t do it. And when they could have gone through the motions after a close loss last week to Missouri, they didn’t do it.
There was an article in the Athletic earlier this year with fellow SEC coaches calling the Gators soft. I think a lot of us believed that at the time (myself included) because of the play we saw on the field. But I think the last few weeks have shown that they are just imperfect, not soft.
This team isn’t going to go down in Gators lore. Nobody is going to bounce their grandkids on their knee and talk about the ’21 Gators. But these last two games have proven these players have a pride that no soft team would ever have.
And that makes me thankful that the Swamp was alive to send them off.
End of the regular season
I just wanted to take the time this close to Thanksgiving to thank each and every one of you who has read Read & Reaction this year. It hasn’t been an easy season and I very much appreciate the trust you give me and this site to cover a team that we both love.
The cool part is that R&R is still growing. Not only are we adding new people to the fold, but we’ve reached the highest readership we’ve ever had by a long-shot this season.
We’re going to be doing some cool things this offseason. Some of them will be free, and some of them will be for sale. You clearly value this site and my writing if you’re reading this, so if you have a suggestion for something you’d like to see us try this offseason, please leave a comment below or email me at Will@readandreaction.com.
Doing this is only worthwhile because of the relationships I’ve built with the fan base and the interaction we get to have with our readers. I appreciate your help with suggesting how we can do more of that moving forward.
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!