If there’s one stat that defines Georgia’s loss to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship Game, it’s this: if you subtract explosive (20+ yard) plays from the ledger, Alabama averaged 4.5 yards per play to Georgia’s 4.4.
Some might tell you that it was the big plays that did Georgia in. After all, the Tide had seven passes over 20 yards compared to four for the Bulldogs. But I don’t think that’s quite right.
Georgia came into the game surrendering 3.7 yards per play all season and got shredded for 36.3 yards per play on those explosives. But it was the 4.5 yards per play on non-explosives that really did them in. It indicates that fixing those big plays isn’t going to fix what happened in this game.
The Tide would have still gone down the field regularly even had they not hit the big plays. The big plays just turned it from a close game into a laugher.
When Stetson Bennett threw the pick-six to Jordan Battle to make it 38-17 Tide, the worst fears of every Georgia fan had been realized. Kirby Smart bet this seasons on his defense and a game manager at quarterback. That may be the right decision, as J.T. Daniels is a statue behind center and I’m not sure if he’s better than Bennett.
But much like Dan Mullen was on the pregame show for this game rather than recruiting largely because of his refusal to at least see what he had in Anthony Richardson, Bulldog fans have to be questioning Smart as he yet again let an SEC title slip away with a less talented quarterback behind center.
It’s not that Bennett lost this game: that was the Georgia defense. You aren’t beating Alabama when you give up 41 points.
It’s that it is now too late to change directions. J.T. Daniels might have won them a game like this had he been playing all season. That’s not happening in a playoff game after not having played meaningful snaps in months.
So Georgia will get into the playoff, but their championship hopes, which seemed so secure Saturday morning, now sit precariously on a defense that just got shredded and on the right arm of “the Mailman”.
Key Plays
Georgia had Bama on the ropes 10-0 one play into the second quarter. The Dawgs finished off what seemed like a statement 97-yard drive and had outgained Alabama 178-46. It looked like the machine that had won every game comfortably since the 10-3 opener against Clemson would do so yet again.
But then we found out the Russian bleeds.
Alabama broke out this formation at key junctures in the game. Down 10 here, they have a bunched formation to the wide side of the field. Georgia’s strong safety (Lewis Cine, #16) drifts up to help in run support and guard the receiver crossing the formation. The wide corner and linebacker both squeeze the inside receiver in the flat, which puts Alabama receiver Jameson Williams one-on-one against the free safety, Christopher Smith (#29) who is backpedaling in deep support.
That is a broken coverage.
At first, I thought this was the corner’s fault, but I actually think it was Cine’s fault. The reason I say that is because Alabama ran the exact same play in the fourth quarter when they needed a first down to help kill the clock.
Alabama motions into the same exact formation, just this time with Slade Bolden (#18) in the front of the bunched set instead of Williams. But this time, Cine (#16) motions over with Williams. The coverage by Georgia is the exact same, but this time Bolden has one-on-one with Cine with Smith supporting deep.
Georgia doesn’t give up a touchdown here. But it was third-and-5 with 6:28 left. All Alabama needed was a first down to essentially salt the game away. And this play both cut Drago and knocked him out.
We knew all year that Georgia was going to struggle if they fell behind, but it hadn’t happened and so they didn’t need to throw the ball to win. But Alabama thought they could score on Georgia. You know how I know? This play.
This looks like a pretty normal first down run. It’s second-and-2 and those get converted a lot. But Alabama just basically conceded the first down given the formation, as they have six players behind the first down marker as Bennett is about to hand the ball off and started the play outnumbered in the box.
Why would they do that? It’s because they wanted Georgia to have to put together sustained drives rather than getting caught in one-on-one situations that could turn into big plays. In fact, they got a little bit more aggressive after this first down and got burned on two consecutive big plays that turned into a touchdown.
From then on, whenever Georgia took a deep shot, Alabama mauled the receiver. I’m pretty sure they were instructed to ensure the receiver didn’t catch it, even if they got a pass interference penalty. The 15-yard penalty was acceptable to Nick Saban if it meant that Georgia had to nickel-and-dime their way down the field.
On a later drive to tie the game at 17 in the second quarter, Georgia went 75 yards, but 40 of the yards came on defensive holding or pass interference penalties. The big play to Ladd McConkey came on a screen pass that turned into a 32-yard touchdown.
There were still some plays that hit for Georgia. But the Alabama strategy worked, as Georgia had a 10:11 called run to called pass ratio in the first quarter, but then went 5:9 in the second quarter and 7:17 in the third.
Certainly this had something to do with being behind. But one play into the second quarter, Georgia was ahead 10-0 and then went pass happy, exactly what Alabama wanted them to do.
Takeaway
I know Georgia is going to make it into the playoff, and I understand why.
The playoff committee is tasked with picking the four best teams, and I don’t think there’s much doubt that the Bulldogs fit that bill. They were outscoring their opponents by an average of 33.8 points coming into the game, which is just ridiculous.
The fact that they play an SEC schedule argument holds (and should hold) a ton of water, but it does require a little bit closer look at their schedule. The average ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) ranking of their opponents is 46.8. The best win is over Clemson (#10).
The competition is Notre Dame, with an average opponent FPI of 51.3 with its best win over Wisconsin (#13) and its loss to Cincinnati (#8). Then you have the two loss teams Baylor (46.1, best win over Oklahoma State, #7) and Ohio State (50.5, best win over Penn State, #14).
I think you can make the argument if you’re the Irish, but Georgia has a better overall resume, a better win and a “better” loss. Plus, you end up with the same rematch issue with Cincinnati and Notre Dame that you do with Georgia and Alabama.
Still, when we’ve seen rematches in the championship game, it has been teams that we still had questions about who was better.
In 1996, Florida got another shot at Florida State in the Sugar Bowl, but the Gators had lost 24-21 in Tallahassee in the infamous “echo of the whistle” game. In 2011, LSU beat Alabama 9-6 in overtime but the Tide got a rematch in the championship game.
It just feels unfair for Georgia to get another shot after Alabama proved that it was far superior in this one. In both 1996 and 2011, the repeat had a different outcome for the vanquished, which means there is hope for Georgia to make the necessary adjustments and pull out the victory should they get the Tide again.
But I’d be worried if I were a Bulldog fan. After the game, Kirby Smart called this game a “wake up call” for his squad. I’m not sure what it takes to wake up your squad, but if the SEC Championship doesn’t do it, I’m not sure you’re in the right business.
Smart could use the wake up call as well, as he basically conceded the game late and didn’t use his timeouts until the game was over. The message was simple: we’re in the playoff so why have a sense of urgency?
That’s quite a departure from the not-safe-for-work halftime speech Smart gave against Florida when he told his players he physically wanted to break the Gators. The implication was that just winning wasn’t good enough. Dominating was the expectation.
All year long, Georgia has been the bully. But when they finally got punched in the mouth and tasted the blood, they folded. And not only did the players fold, but their coach folded as well.
We’ll see whether they can get their mojo back against either Cincinnati or Michigan in the playoff. But we confirmed one thing about the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.
Get them behind and the mail isn’t getting delivered.
1980 Reasons to Root for Georgia
Check out my book, 1980 reasons to root for the Georgia Bulldogs. It has a really nice cover, a few made-up quotes about the Georgia program on the back from prominent folks from the Florida-Georgia rivalry and is completely empty on the inside (like that trophy case in Athens).
I hope you enjoy it!