An expanded 12-team playoff field seems like it is just around the corner for college football. This series will focus on how a 12-team playoff could play out.
On November 14, 2011, the Presidential Oversight Committee members met in Denver to discuss the formation of a playoff in college football.
The meeting took place just two Saturdays after #1 LSU went on the road and held off #2 Alabama in a defensive slugfest for a 9-6 victory in the “Game of the Century.” Les Miles improved his record to 3-2 over Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide and LSU dealt what seemed like the death blow to any hopes of the Tide capturing its second title under Saban.
It was not unheard of for a team who did not win their conference to make the BCS title game, (Nebraska (2001 Rose Bowl) and Oklahoma (2004 Sugar) each failed to win their conference), but until LSU-Bama battled down to the wire on an early November 2011 night in Tuscaloosa, the odds were stacked against two teams from the same conference landing in both of the top spots in the final BCS rankings.
There had been one notable previous attempt to argue the two best teams played in the same conference heading into the BCS Championship Game. In 2006, Chad Henne’s #2 Wolverines fell to eventual Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith and the #1 Buckeyes in The Game’s version of the “Game of the Century.” However, voters vaulted the SEC Champion Gators into the final #2 BCS ranking over Michigan and after Urban Meyer’s second Florida roster scorched Ohio State in the desert and Michigan fell to USC in the Rose Bowl, there was no question that the voters had made the right call in giving the Gators a shot.
Back to 2011 – Alabama was punished for the loss to LSU and dropped to the #4 spot in the polls behind unbeatens LSU, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. Another unbeaten loomed, but it was #5 Boise State. Group of Five teams have a tough enough time making their case for a four-team playoff, so a top-two ranking in the BCS era was out of the question. Every other major Power Five threat had been saddled with at least one-loss, but none of those losses had impressed voters as much as Alabama’s valiant effort against the top-ranked Tigers.
Over the next two weeks, Stanford took a 53-30 beating at the hands of Oregon and Oklahoma State fell in double overtime to Iowa State, not Matt Campbell Iowa State…Paul Rhodes Iowa State. In case the universe needed to deliver more help to Crimson Tide, Boise State managed to drop a game to TCU as well leaving the Houston Cougars, a non-threat in the polls, as the lone unbeaten Group of Five team. When the final standings took shape on December 5, 2011, the pollsters decided Oklahoma State and Stanford’s losses did not impress as much as Bama’s lone defeat and rewarded the Tide with the final #2 BCS ranking to set up an unprecedented All-SEC BCS Championship showdown in the Sugar Bowl against both conference and division rival, LSU.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe perfect storm created a mess at the top giving voters the ability to justify their decision to rank Alabama as the second-best team in the nation:
2011 Final BCS Rankings
- LSU (13-0), SEC Champion
- Alabama (11-1), 2nd place SEC West
- Oklahoma State (11-1), Big XII Champion
- Stanford (11-1), 2nd place Pac-12 North
- Oregon (10-2), Pac-12 Champion
Nobody outside of Tuscaloosa was happy with this arrangement especially since the SEC had won five straight national championships dating back to 2006 Florida and by the summer of 2012, the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee voted to allow the concept which would lead to the College Football Playoff.
Adam Himmelsbach of The New York Times wrote, “After all the controversy surrounding the much-derided Bowl Championship Series, after the annual debates about which teams deserved to play in the national title game, a four-team playoff will be implemented in the 2014 season.
“Now there will be controversy over which teams are Nos. 4 and 5 as opposed to 1 and 2,” SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer told Himmelsbach. “But this does broaden participation, and I think that’s what they were looking for.”
In an era that had come to be dominated by the SEC, a four-team playoff was seen as a way to help schools from other conferences get their foot in the door on a more regular basis.
Through eight seasons, the playoff has incorporated teams from every part of the FBS footprint: each of the Power Five Conferences, an Independent, and, finally, a Group of Five school.
The SEC has still been featured in seven of the eight national title games including two All-SEC matchups (Bama-Georgia) in 2017 and 2021. In five of those seven tries, the SEC has walked away with another national title (Bamax3, LSU, and Georgia).
Last week, well-known anti-playoff expansionist, Josh Pate of The Late Kick (24/7 Sports), issued a warning to the rest of college football.
Brilliantly put tonight by @LateKickJosh An expanded playoff doesn’t introduce parity. In fact, you’re opening the door for the SEC to get even MORE teams into it. The SEC will not sign off on an expansion that caps the amount of teams it can have make it.
(via @247Sports) pic.twitter.com/3lLGHYyAFB
— Super Tecmo Bo (@randomasamf) January 3, 2022
You really want to see yourself in a situation, a tournament, in college football where you get in with no cap on the SEC and, all of a sudden, now you’re watching meaningful playoff games…MEANINGFUL PLAYOFF GAMES…as opposed to those meaningless bowl games, you’re setting yourself up for disaster. You’re setting yourself up, down the road, for a three-out-of-four or a four-out-of-four clean sweep semifinal featuring all SEC teams.
-Josh Pate, The Late Kick (24/7 Sports)
The SEC haters of the world will not appreciate Pate’s words of warning, writing it off as nothing more than SEC posturing.
One common misconception about the SEC: It’s a top-heavy league.
For those who decry the SEC as a top-heavy league full of teams assigning themselves credit for whatever combination of Alabama plus two is dominating the sport throughout a given season, I would ask you to hold that measure to any other league in America.
Five different SEC schools (Alabama, LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia) have won national titles since 2008. Take it back a few more years to 1998 and that number bumps up to six with the inclusion of the Tennessee Volunteers.
Let’s use the “top-heavy” standard on any other conference – we’ll use the current conference affiliations even though Nebraska did not win national titles under the Big Ten flag, we’ll assign those values to the Big Ten for the sake of time.
Big Ten: To find six different national championships among the current members of the Big Ten, you’d have to go back to Minnesota in 1960. Ohio State, Michigan’s half-title in 1997, Nebraska as a Big XII member, Penn State as an independent twice in the 1980s, and 1965-1966 Michigan State fill out the other five.
ACC: Similar to the Big Ten, 1959 Syracuse would be the sixth different school to claim a national title for the ACC (though the title was not won as a member of the league). Clemson, FSU, Miami (not ACC Miami), 1990 Georgia Tech, and 1976 Pitt (not ACC Pitt) were the first five schools on the list.
Big XII: 2005 Texas was the last Big XII school to raise a banner. Despite their seemingly annual contention, Oklahoma has failed to win a title since 2000. Since Nebraska and Colorado are being counted for other conferences, the run to find a third school that has won a national title stretches all the way back to the mighty 1938 TCU Horned Frogs (not a as Big XII member) led by Heisman Trophy winner Davey O’Brien and head coach Dutch Meyer. Since I’ve punished the Big XII by discounting Nebraska and Colorado, I’ll extend a helping hand and give them credit for future members UCF (2017 lol) and BYU (1984 robbed from UF) to extend their title count to five programs. Sticking with the theme of creating titles out of thin-air, Oklahoma State, previously known as Oklahoma A&M, was retroactively gifted a national title for their unbeaten 1945 season by the AFCA in the year of our Lord 2016. I wonder how the actual 1945 national champs in West Point feel about that claim? Let that be a lesson to the kids out there: If you use your imagination, you too can conjure up all kinds of magical national title claims!
Pac-12: Outside of USC, which last won in 2004, the Pac-12 is a wasteland when it comes to winning national titles. 1991 Washington and 1990 Colorado (Big XII member at the time) are the only league members to win it all since 1954 UCLA, 1926 Stanford, and , the sixth and final school, 1922 Cal. Oregon seems destined to win one at some point, but as of today, the old joke says that their logo matches the number of national titles: O.
If you give the SEC the entire timeline of college football, like we’ve done with the other conferences, Arkansas (not as a SEC member in 1964), Ole Miss (1960), Texas A&M (not as a SEC member in 1939, 1919) run the SEC total to nine different schools who have captured a national title at one point.
Though the SEC may appear to be top-heavy at times, nearly two-thirds of the league is capable of fielding a team worthy competing at a national championship level. That kind of depth does not exist in any other conference and to Josh Pate’s point, expanding the playoff will likely lead to more SEC dominance, at least in the near future.
Count ’em up
I still wanted to test Pate’s theory to further illustrate the point with specifics against a playoff field of 12-teams since it appears that will be the next step in expansion.
Using the A.P. Poll (it’s a consistent poll; BCS rankings didn’t start until 1998 and CFP rankings started in 2014, but the A.P. Poll has been a constant) dating back to 1992 (1. provides an even 30 years of data and 2. first season in which a conference championship game took place), I’ve calculated the number of playoff appearances each school and conference would have earned by way of a Top-12 ranking in the final regular season A.P. Poll (typically first Monday of December after conference championship weekend).
POWER FIVE
Embed from Getty Images
Total SEC Playoff Bids |
92 (25.55%) |
By Division |
|
| Alabama | 16 | SEC WEST | 49 |
| LSU | 11 | ||
| Auburn | 9 | ||
| Arkansas | 4 | ||
| Ole Miss | 2 | ||
| Mississippi State | 1 | ||
| Texas A&M | 6 | ||
| Georgia | 14 | SEC EAST | 43 |
| Florida | 17 | ||
| Tennessee | 8 | ||
| Kentucky | 0 | ||
| South Carolina | 2 | ||
| Vanderbilt | 0 | ||
| Missouri | 2 |
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- The SEC earned 25% of the playoff spots over the last 30 years (92/360), more than any other conference at just over an average of three teams per year.
- Each SEC school earned a playoff spot in a 12-team system except Kentucky and Missouri. Yes, Arkansas has four bids!
- Florida’s success in the 1990s provided the Gators with a leg up on the Tide for the most playoff berths.
- Could an expanded 12-team playoff change the tenor of the fanbase when evaluating a coach?
- Dan Mullen earned a playoff bid in his first three seasons at the helm of the Gators. Would that have been enough to save his job despite a lackluster 2021? Mullen also earned a playoff spot in 2014 with Dak Prescott and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Only 25% of all college football teams have earned four or more playoff bids since 1992. Only Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma are able to match Mullen’s four playoff bids since 2014. Mullen will be snapped up quickly next cycle.
- Jimbo Fisher by comparison has only earned one playoff bid at Texas A&M (2020) under the same constraints…the same as Kevin Sumlin (2012).
- Bama would have only missed the playoff twice in the Saban era (2010 and 2007).
- Tennessee tallied eight appearances between 1992-2003, but the Vols are in the midst of an 18-year playoff drought.
- Steve Spurrier led nine playoff appearances at Florida (1992-2001) and the only two in program history at South Carolina (2012-2013) for 11 total on the HBC’s resume.
- Lane Kiffin rebuilt Ole Miss into a playoff team in only two years.
Total Big Ten Playoff Bids |
76 (21.11%) |
By Division |
|
| Ohio State | 23 |
BIG TEN EAST |
49 |
| Michigan | 8 | ||
| Michigan State | 7 | ||
| Penn State | 9 | ||
| Indiana | 1 | ||
| Rutgers | 0 | ||
| Maryland | 1 | ||
| Wisconsin | 8 |
BIG TEN WEST |
27 |
| Nebraska | 9 | ||
| Purdue | 1 | ||
| Minnesota | 1 | ||
| Northwestern | 3 | ||
| Illinois | 1 | ||
| Iowa | 4 |
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- The Big Ten earned the next highest total number of bids for a single conference with 76. However, Ohio State is responsible for nearly 1/3 of all Big Ten bids.
- Every Big Ten school would have made a 12-team playoff since 1992, except for Rutgers. Yes, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota have a berth under their belts! While an expanded playoff might diminish the value of losing a game in the regular season, more fanbases will be engaged throughout the season knowing their two-loss team may still have a shot at the playoffs or playing spoiler for their opponent. There would also be more marquee games with a direct impact on the playoff race each week.
- Ohio State would be a mainstay in the playoff – only missing 2011, 2004, 2001, and 2000 since the turn of the century.
- Jim Harbaugh may have only beaten Buckeyes in 2021, but this would have been the Wolverines’ third playoff berth under Harbaugh since they finished the regular season ranked in the Top-12 in both 2018 and 2016.
- In 1994, unbeaten Penn State led by Kerry Collins and Ki-Jana Carter, had its shot against Nebraska instead of being stuck in the Rose Bowl against an overmatched Oregon team.
- The Cornhuskers’ epic run in the 1990s still concludes in 2001; Nebraska has not finished in the A.P. Top-12 since the days of Crouch and Solich.
- Paul Chryst, Bret Bielema, and Barry Alvarez would have each led the Badgers to multiple playoff bids.
Total Pac-12 Playoff Bids |
54 (15%) |
| Oregon | 12 |
| Washington | 5 |
| Washington State | 3 |
| Oregon State | 1 |
| California | 1 |
| Stanford | 6 |
| Utah | 4 |
| Arizona State | 2 |
| UCLA | 2 |
| USC | 10 |
| Colorado | 6 |
| Arizona | 2
|
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- 54 total bids for the Pac-12 since 1992.
- The Pac-12 has long relied on USC for some semblance of national relevance, but Oregon has picked up the slack in the Trojans’ near decade-and-a-half absence from the top of the sport. Ten of the Ducks’ 12 playoff bids have occurred since 2000.
- Washington has had a few bright spots with not much in between. In-state rival, Washington State, who carries much less cache on a national level has produced nearly the same amount of playoff bids in the three decades.
- UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State with two bids a piece is a joke considering the recruiting landscape in SoCal and Arizona. One of these three teams should be in the Top-12 annually. Underperforming programs have been keeping the Pac-12 down in recent years.
- The story of Utah’s rise from Group of Five beast to Power Five conference champion would have been written over four playoff runs since 2004 to establish the Utes as one of the big boys in college football.
- Stanford recorded four straight playoff berths from 2010-2013.
- Colorado was a national power in the late 1980s, early 1990s, but Ralphie would run to playoff spots in 2001 and 2016.
Total Big XII Playoff Bids |
53 (14.72%) |
| Oklahoma | 17 |
| Texas | 9 |
| Oklahoma State | 2 |
| Texas Tech | 1 |
| TCU | 5 |
| Iowa State | 1 |
| Baylor | 4 |
| Kansas | 2 |
| Kansas State | 9 |
| West Virginia | 3 |
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- Oklahoma has been a force since Bob Stoops arrived in 2000, racking up 17 bids.
- Texas has the brand, but K-State has made just as a many appearances in a 12-team playoff since 1992. Looking forward to the Wildcat Network, ESPN!
- The Jayhawks weren’t a fluke in 2007! They also qualified for a 12-team field in 1995, finishing 9-2. Does this mean we can expect a playoff run from Kansas every 12 years? Seeing as the Jayhawks missed the playoff in 2019, it’s only fair to say Kansas is overdue for a playoff bid.
- Baylor and TCU, spurned by the CFP committee for the #4 spot in favor of Ohio State in 2014 , have surged to combine for nine appearances since 2008.
- Does Oklahoma State stick with Mike Gundy after missing the playoffs for nine straight seasons (2012=2020)? A school like Oklahoma State might acknowledge the realities of being able to consistently topple OU and be in the national title hunt on an annual basis, but surely the Pokes are capable of being a Top-12 program more than once a decade, right? This might be a reverse-Mullen situation. Mullen might have been saved by his playoff berths, Gundy might have been canned for a playoff drought.
Total ACC Playoff Bids |
50 (13.88%) |
By Division |
|
| Clemson | 7 | ATLANTIC | 25 |
| Florida State | 14 | ||
| Louisville | 2 | ||
| Wake Forest | 0 | ||
| NC State | 1 | ||
| Syracuse | 1 | ||
| Boston College | 0 | ||
| Miami | 9 | COASTAL | 25 |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | ||
| Virginia Tech | 9 | ||
| Virginia | 0 | ||
| North Carolina | 4 | ||
| Georgia Tech | 3 | ||
| Duke | 0 |
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- 39/50 bids originate from four schools: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Miami.
- Despite recent success, Clemson has only posted half the playoff appearances of Florida State in a 12-team field since 1992. Though FSU has only qualified three times since 2004.
- Mark Richt’s 2017 Miami Hurricanes finished in the Top-12 for the first time since Larry Coker’s Canes in 2005.
- Virginia Tech’s nine appearances fell between 1996-2011. Odds are, Frank Beamer makes another appearance in a national title game during that stretch.
- Duke being a non-factor did not surprise me, but Boston College throwing up a goose-egg caught me off guard. Matty Ice had the Eagles ranked as high as #2 in the BCS in late October of 2007, but a late season swoon cost BC a shot at a playoff spot.
- Lamar Jackson may have smoked the Gators in the Sugar Bowl, but he would not have qualified for the playoffs. The only two bids for the Cards came during the Brian Brohm era in 2004 and 2006.
FBS Independent |
14 (3.88%) |
| Notre Dame | 12 |
| BYU | 2 |
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
- Five of Notre Dame’s 12 playoff appearances since 1992 occurred since 2011, including three of the last four seasons.
- BYU made its first playoff appearance in 2021 since 1996.
- The 12-team playoff field in 2021 featured three non-Power Five teams: Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and BYU.
GROUP OF FIVE
On the surface, it seems the Group of Five would have a ton to gain from a switch to a 12-team playoff. However, a 12-team field won’t be much friendlier to the Group of Five than either the BCS or four-team College Football Playoff.
*Assuming the Top -12 of A.P. Poll since 1992 created our playoff field:
Group of Five schools have only earned a little over 5% of the playoff spots in a 12-team field since 1992 (19/360).
AMERICAN |
8 |
| Cincinnati | 4 |
| Houston | 1 |
| UCF | 2 |
| Tulane | 1 |
- No self-declared titles for the Knights! 2017-2018 would’ve been settled on the field.
- The 2011 Houston Cougars – not Tom Herman, not Art Briles, but Kevin Sumlin with OC Kliff Kingsbury and QB Case Keenum. Yes, that is the second time you’ve read Kevin Sumlin’s name in this piece.
- Remember Shaun King and the unbeaten Tommy Bowden-led Tulane Green Wave in 1998?
- Cincinnati broke through in a four-team system, but the Bearcats are no stranger to the Top-12, finishing there four times since 2008.
MAC |
1 |
| Western Michigan | 1 |
- P.J. Fleck’s Broncos rowed the boat in the Top-12 and a New Year’s Six bowl bid in 2016.
MOUNTAIN WEST |
8 |
| Colorado State | 1 |
| Hawaii | 1 |
| Boise State | 6 |
- Boise State, the original BCS-buster, would have been a playoff regular, making all six appearances between 2004-2011.
- Hawaii rode the arm of Colt Brennan in June Jones’ wide open offense to a magical run and a Sugar Bowl berth in 2007.
- Colorado State worked its way into the Top-10 in 1994, losing only to Utah in the regular season.
SUN BELT |
1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1 |
- The 2020 Chanticleers put Coastal on the map as the unbeaten Chants played host to the memorable “Mullets vs Mormons” backyard pickup game in a year decimated by cancellations across the schedule.
CUSA |
1 |
| Marshall | 1 |
- Randy Moss made a strong impression in the Herd’s first FBS season in 1997, but the only Marshall team to ever qualify for a Top-12 spot was the Chad Pennington led, MAC Champion Thundering Herd of 1998. Marshall’s lone slip-up on the season was a loss at Bowling Green.
Wrapping up
With the SEC and Big Ten combining for 46.66% of playoff spots in the 12-playoff field since 1992, it’s easy to see that simple expansion won’t necessarily cut back on the repetitious nature of our current four team playoff model.
Those percentages also lead me to believe that Josh Pate is correct in his assessment of a potential All-SEC semifinals, but is it in the sport’s best interest to avoid such a scenario?
The dominant teams will continue to dominate regardless of the model and while the final few teams may be repetitive, would a 12-team playoff field create more interest across the sport especially at programs which rarely get a sniff at contending for a title?
Now that we know what a 12-team playoff field would look like (who would appear and how many times since 1992), what can we expect from the 12-team playoff based on the current proposals and talking points that have yet to be determined? What would matchups look like – hosted on home fields or bowl sites? What would a successful campaign for the 12th spot look like?
We’ll answer all of these questions in the next segment of The 12-Team College Football Playoff Preview.