2022 National Signing Day Preview: Billy Napier looks to make his mark

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It’s finally here!

After months of speculation about what Billy Napier is going to be able to accomplish for his transition signing class, we’re going to know on Wednesday when the 2022 class is completed.

This is different than other coaching changes the Gators have had in the past. That’s because except for Dan Mullen, none of them had to contend with an early signing day that took so many prospects off of the table. That’s also because even for Mullen, the transfer portal was in its infancy, whereas now there are rankings that include the portal because it’s become such an important part of how teams are building their roster.

And none of the previous Florida coaches had to deal with the landscape associated with name, image and likeness (NIL) and the ramifications associated with players being able to legally receive money while playing for a school.

While I think it’s important to acknowledge these challenges and differences, we should also acknowledge that SEC history suggests this day is pretty important. After all, you have to go all the way back to the 2005 Georgia Bulldogs to find the last SEC Champion who didn’t field a top-5 recruiting class in the four years prior to winning the conference. And except for Auburn in 2010 and 2013, every other SEC Champion since then has had at least one top-2 class.

Now I don’t expect Billy Napier to achieve that sort of lofty ranking in his first recruiting class (nor is it reasonable to do so).

He was left with a recruiting situation much worse than some of his contemporaries (i.e. Brian Kelly at LSU). He has preached patience since coming in to Florida, which makes sense given he didn’t show the ability to turn around recruiting at Louisiana in his transition class there. That class finished 5th overall in the Sun Belt conference that year.

But what he did do was set the foundation for the Sun Belt Championship that Louisiana won this year. He also supplemented those players with three straight classes that finished first in the Sun Belt rankings afterwards.

So while a lot of those players from the 2018 class were contributors, some of them all-conference selections, the reality is that it was more a foundation for what was to come.

So that’s what Wednesday is about; setting a solid foundation.

A reasonable foundation

If we’re going to try to understand what a reasonable transition class looks like, I think the logical place to start is with previous Florida coaches and their transition classes.

I’ve tried to slice and dice the numbers in a few different ways to see where Napier stands right now and where he could stand after Wednesday. The answer to the question of where he stands right now really depends on how you look at things.

I’m a firm believer that you want to look at top-tier talent first to evaluate a class rather than just volume. In that case, Napier’s current class of 15 recruits looks better than Jim McElwain’s 2015 class, even though there aren’t a lot more top-300 players in each. The difference is that McElwain signed 21 recruits, meaning his top-300 percentage was 19 percent. Because Napier only has 15 commits currently, his top-300 percentage is at 33 percent. So better than McElwain, but behind the others, including Mullen.

That story is slightly different if we just look at star rankings.

Yes, Kamari Wilson got dropped from a 5-star to a 4-star last week based off of camp performances. But I’m not sure that’s what we really what we want to focus on here. When looked at through this lense, Napier’s class is much better than McElwain’s, and compares pretty favorably to Mullen, Meyer and Muschamp.

Napier still needs a strong finish to fully make the comparisons to those better recruiters, but this should put Gators fans’ minds at ease that at least we’re not getting Mac-level recruiting.

The other thing to consider though is that there’s quite a large distribution between 3-star signees, who are typically ranked somewhere between 350-1500 nationally. If we’re honest with ourselves, this is where Napier is really lagging behind.

If we compare both the average national ranking and average positional ranking of every player in transition classes going back to Ron Zook, we see a clear picture of where Napier has struggled thus far to fill out this 2022 class.

What we see in these two charts is that Napier far-and-away has a national player ranking below all of his contemporaries. Perhaps more telling is that he has an average positional ranking slightly worse than Ron Zook, but only slightly better than Jim McElwain. That’s not where you want to be.

There are reasons for this. First, if you incorporate transfers into all of these charts, the numbers start to look really, really good. After all, O’Cyrus Torrence, Jalen Kimber, Montrell Johnson and Kamryn Waites are all ranked as 4-star recruits as transfers, probably all ranking somewhere between 200-300 nationally.

Additionally, if Napier can close strong with 5-star Harold Perkins, high 4-star Jacoby Mathews and 4-star TreVonte’ Citizen, then those numbers get even better.

Still, this class looks much more like a test of my Five-Three Theory than it does a traditional transition class for Florida. Only time will tell whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but it is very different.

Roster Talent vs. Roster Balance

Napier still has time (and the recruits on the board) to close strong.

But before getting there, we need to discuss a few things about recruiting classes in general. First, there’s the matter of scholarships.

The above chart shows the Gators current roster construction now that Ty’Ron Hopper has decided to transfer to Missouri. By my count, the Gators are currently at 87 scholarship players, meaning some guys are going to be asked to find playing time at another program.

The chart also shows us where the holes in the roster currently sit. For example, we can see that the Gators haven’t recruited anyone at the corner position this cycle (unless you consider Devin Moore a corner). Additionally, Napier has only brought in three offensive lineman (I’d like to see one more, though transfer Kamryn Waites almost qualifies since he’s a redshirt freshman).

This really gets to one of the areas where Napier seems to really be putting his focus: balance.

SBNation had an interesting article regarding roster construction that looked at the number of scholarship players that a program wants for various types of offenses and defenses. I’ve included the numbers for a 3-4 defense and a spread passing offense for reference because I think it’s probably the closest comparison to what Florida will run.

The ranges are obviously very wide, but what it suggests is that Florida needs to add players at the wide receiver and linebacker positions (7 WRs currently, and 8 LBs if Amari Burney returns). It also suggests that the Gators are overstocked at defensive tackle (9), safety (12) and QB (6).

Beyond just being good prospects, that’s why Napier has filled out this class with Trevor Etienne (RB), Max Brown (QB), David Conner (OT), Christian Williams (OG) and Andrew Savaiinaea (DE). Only Etienne is a “blue chip” (4-star or above) recruit.

But having players in these spots ensures Napier will be less likely to have to reach in future classes to fill a need, and will instead be able to focus purely on talent.

Finishing Strong

So what does finishing strong look like?

Well, first I think we have to acknowledge that while it used to be that your roster pretty much was set after National Signing Day, the prominence of the transfer portal changes all of that. Someone is going to decide to leave their program after the spring, and you had better have a spot available (or be able to make a spot available) if you want to land that sort of prospect.

All that said, you still need to bring in high school talent, and you need to do so consistently at positions of need. That means I think a truly successful class from a balance perspective for the Gators will have to include at least one wide receiver (hopefully two), one linebacker (hopefully two) and potentially another offensive lineman.

I think the Gators could use a corner as well, but there aren’t any targets at that position on the board currently. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that 5-star cornerbacks Cormani McClain and Tony Mitchell are top targets for the Gators in the 2023 class.

The linebacker target is obvious, and Harold Perkins would be a huge get, both from a position of need and from a narrative standpoint around Napier turning the tide of recruiting. But both Jack Pyburn and Emar’rion Winston are targets as edge rushers, and those types can end up playing roles very similar to linebackers or allow other edge rushers to move as well (think Mohamoud Diabate).

As for wide receiver, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see 4-star prospect D.J. Allen and 3-star prospect Caleb Douglas garnering interest from the Gators. To be honest, the Gators can probably use both of them, and the commitment of tight end Hayden Hansen suggests that the pursuit of 3-star athlete Arlis Boardingham is for a receiver spot.

3-star Matthew McCoy is the remaining target at offensive tackle. It looks like that’s a Miami/UF battle for the St. Augustine product, but as of now Florida hasn’t extended an offer. That suggests that Napier feels comfortable with who he has (and who he’ll go after next year) and doesn’t want to reach.

Finally, we get to Jacoby Mathews. From a numbers perspective, Florida doesn’t really need another safety. But the reality is that this is a situation where you ignore need and focus on the talent that a player like Mathews brings to the table. Combining Mathews with Kamari Wilson, Moore and 3-star commit Miguel Mitchell likely means Florida won’t have to worry about safety for a while. And while the Gators do have numbers at the position, given the recent play on that side of the ball, it may make sense to load up.

If every single one of those recruits (minus McCoy) signed with Florida, we would have a recruiting class of 22 and a 247Sports score of 263.2, which historically would rank 12th nationally.

Get everybody except for Perkins, and we’re looking at a class that ranks 16th (251.3). It’s the same story if Napier gets everybody except Matthews (252.7). If neither Mathews nor Perkins comes to Gainesville but everyone else does, then the class ends up ranked around 19th (239.9).

I’m not going to lie, the last scenario there would be a disappointment. But if Napier fills out his class well at the positions I’ve listed and is able to convince both Perkins and Mathews to sign, the level of hype for the program will increase significantly.

Perhaps more importantly, the first chart I showed above would look like this:

I’ve been writing for a while that what Napier wants to get out of his transition class is two or three All-SEC players along with some solid depth to supplement holdovers from Mullen’s last two classes and the 2023 recruiting class yet to come.

That means that this chart undersells Napier’s four top-100 players listed here. Mullen’s top-100 players were ranked 69th (Copeland), 81st (Gouraige), 85th (E. Jones) and 89th (Watkins). Napier’s four would be ranked 8th (Perkins), 38th (Mathews), 43rd (Wilson) and 66th (James). The odds of Napier’s four turning into All-SEC players is significantly higher than the previous administration, even if the numbers in the chart look the same.

But those are just numbers, and Wednesday is just as much about narrative and perception as it is about rankings.

For the past decade, every time Florida has gone up against another big-time program for a truly elite prospect, it feels like the Gators have come up short. Early on in the Mullen era, it felt like he was in the final three for a lot of elite players, but could just never close the deal. The signings of Kamari Wilson and Shemar James on early signing day make it feel like those winds may be starting to change.

So we can break down numbers, class sizes, needs and individual prospects, but the reality is that Wednesday is going to feed the narrative around the program, positive or negative, without any way to change that narrative until the ink dries on the 2023 class next year. Either Napier will prove he can land elite prospects now, or that remains an open question.

Napier has said all of the right things since he’s come to campus. He’s talked about building a championship program. He’s broken the IMG curse. He has built a staff that many publications think is one of the best in the country. And he’s talked about how this is a talent acquisition business.

But the reality is, Napier knows he has to win head-to-head recruiting battles with his SEC brethren more often than he loses them to win consistently. He has two such battles on Wednesday with Texas A&M and LSU for Perkins and Mathews.

Let the battles begin.

Tom Brady Retires

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You couldn’t go anywhere this weekend without seeing some mention of Tom Brady after the news of his retirement leaked out. ESPN had a continuous loop of Brady analysis as I was running at the gym on Sunday that seemed superfluous, even for someone of Brady’s stature.

Whether the news of Brady’s retirement is actually true or not is a different story – and one tied into a desire to be first rather than right – but the adulation given someone who essentially is now in arguments with Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods as the best athlete ever as opposed to the best in his sport was significant.

We don’t always get an opportunity to see greatness, and as someone who’s gotten to see all three of those greats in their primes, that’s not something to be taken for granted.

As luck would have it, right now I’m reading Seth Wickersham’s book, “It’s Better to Be Feared: The New England Patriots Dynasty and the Pursuit of Greatness.” I’m only about halfway through the book, but one thing has struck me about both Brady and Bill Belichick as I’ve been reading: neither one of them seems all that happy or at peace with their place in the world.

Brady and Belichick have worked so hard to be the best at what they do. The Wickersham book outlines 19-hour days for Belichick, beating everyone to the office and expecting his assistants to give up any semblance of home life to succeed. It outlines a singular focus necessary for Brady to succeed, and how his self-worth has been tied into his ability to play football. It also outlines grudges being held – particularly in Belichick’s case – where friendships were ended because of perceived slights.

And the question I keep coming back to is a pretty simple one: is it worth it?

I turned 40 in September. It didn’t really affect me at the exact moment, but I really felt it this New Year’s Eve. That wasn’t because I was making resolutions or because I was reflecting back on the past year. It was because when they went through the list of all of the people who died in 2021, a large chunk of them were younger than 80.

The realization hit: my life is likely half-over.

The questions that come to your mind when you start coming to grips with that fact can be overwhelming. Have I spent the first 40 years well? Do the people I love know that I love them? Would those people come to my funeral and will they care that I’m gone?

That led me to another book, this one titled “Top Five Regrets of the Dying: A Life Transformed by the Dearly Departing.” In it, a palliative care nurse describes her conversations with those who are terminally ill, and what they wish they’d done with the life they had.

The top-5 regrets she outlined in the book were the following:

1. I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.
2. I wish I hadn’t worked so hard.
3. I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings.
4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.
5. I wish that I had let myself be happier.

Romans 14:12 teaches that each of us will give an account of ourselves to God. I used to picture that as me sitting there on a sofa, essentially going through a movie of my life with God by my side tilting his head every once in a while in disapproval as we went through mistakes I’d rather gloss over.

But instead, I think it’s more of the experience of what will go through our minds when we’re talking to that palliative care nurse as we near the end.

So someone like Brady retires, or I’m looking at someone like Belichick who’s about to turn 70, and I wonder: was it worth it?

Both have given countless football fans thrills. They’re undoubtedly going to be remembered by football fans and the record books. Replicating what they’ve accomplished is going to be difficult-to-impossible.

But what I’ve been feeling as I’ve been working my way through the Wickersham book is that the ruthlessness required to be the best stands in stark contrast to the things that the vast majority of people value when they pass away.

Brady is the best football player ever. He may be the best athlete ever.

I’m just not sure that matters all that much.

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