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R&R Mailbag: W/L expectations for 2022, facilities improvements, fixing CFB and Brian Kelly’s dancing

Will Miles

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One thing we’re trying to do at Read & Reaction is get a little bit more interactive with you all, our readers. That’s why we’ve started releasing audio versions of our articles on YouTube, why we’ve got commercial-free and bonus content on our Patreon channel and why you’re reading this mailbag.

Every so often during the offseason, we’re going to be fielding questions from our Patreon subscribers and writing/recording these mailbag articles. For as little as $2 per month, you can communicate directly with us and get our opinions on topics that matter to you. Most of the questions this week are Gator-centric, but we got one Jags question and one about Brian Kelly’s dancing skills, so if you’re curious about something non-Gator or something about us or the site, please join and drop us a question. Quite honestly, the weirder and more entertaining the better.

And for those who submitted questions and are supporting us on Patreon, a huge, huge thank you from both of us.

Mailbag Questions (Gator-related)

Question (Ronald R.): Hi Will, With last year’s Gator implosion it is easy to be hopeful for a better 2022. It appears that coach Billy has made improvements and has the Gators on a plan for success. I know you are withholding judgment until the “bump class”, but what would you consider a good (and realistic) outcome for season of 2022. Win/loss expectations? 

Answer (Will): Expectations are always an interesting beast. I didn’t expect Dan Mullen to win 10 games in his first year or finish ranked 7th, but he was able to accomplish it and his tenure still ended poorly. The same with Jim McElwain, who also won 10 games and finished 25th in the polls in 2015 but had an even worse tenure than Mullen. Urban Meyer went 9-3 in his first season, finished 12th in the AP poll, and of course won a National Championship in year two.

I guess the point is that we can have fun guessing what will happen but we shouldn’t put too much stock in the results being all that predictive of the future if they are overly successful.

But that might not be true on the other side. Will Muschamp’s 2011 Gators went 7-6, and the Gators lost less than 5 games only once in his four seasons. Ron Zook finished 8-5 and just never got over that 5-loss hump.

What did those tenures have in common? Losing to teams that Florida should beat.

So I think that should be the expectation. Napier needs to beat the teams that Florida should beat, even if he struggles when they play experienced teams that are going to be highly ranked. That means I won’t be crushed if he loses to Utah, Georgia and Texas A&M. Depending on whether Brian Kelly is an upgrade at LSU means that’s probably the hinge point for the season.

But he can’t lose to Kentucky or Tennessee – and certainly not both – in addition to those others and have a season that I would consider successful.

The point you make about the “bump” class is important, but when I say I won’t evaluate Napier until I see that, what I mean is I won’t evaluate his recruiting. I hope I’ve been very clear about the fact that while recruiting is a prerequisite to winning championships, it’s not the only thing that leads to championships. Development and in-game coaching still matter, just significantly less than in the NFL.

So just looking at history, bare minimum Napier can’t lose 5 games. That’s a harbinger of awful things to come, and means only one slip-up if he loses the games to Utah, Georgia and A&M. In that case, the Gators end up 8-4 with a solid bowl game.

If you ask me what would be impressive, that would be a 10-2 record. That’s because that would include zero slip-ups to less talented teams and a win over one of the three big games on the schedule. That’s only happening if Napier has buy-in from the team, and some solid answers at the QB position.

Question (Brian R.): How significantly will Billy’s improvements to on campus housing for football players, to food, to parking, etc. impact recruiting? Is it a matter of these things no longer hurting Florida or will they legitimately help? Also, the new housing is at The Standard, which is NICE especially compared to the Keys complex. Will football players stop moving off campus now?

Answer (Will): I’m not someone who buys into the idea that facilities and/or creature comforts impact recruiting all that much. At the end of the day, the true blue-chip players aren’t coming to Florida because of day-to-day comforts, they’re coming because the Gators are going to get them into the NFL.

All that said, getting players to the NFL requires a singular mindset towards maximizing all of their God-given talents while they’re in Gainesville. That singular mindset then leads to fixing issues like food, parking and housing from the standpoint of it shows a care that should permeate throughout the program.

I’d love to live at The Standard. But if you told me I had to live in my dump of a dorm in Beatty Towers in order to become a millionaire three years later, it would be a no-brainer. The fact that Clemson, Alabama and Georgia could offer better amenities would be a plus, but if Florida were putting guys into the league at a much higher rate and if I loved the coach, 18-year old me would’ve still chosen Florida.

The issue is what I said earlier. The amenities are an indication that every detail has been thought of; they’re a downstream effect of a healthy organization, just like a lack of them is a downstream effect of an organization not operating at full health.

Given that, they’re certainly an important aspect of the overall plan, and I do think they’ll help with recruiting tangentially. But I actually think it is more that Billy Napier is a good recruiter that facilitates these changes, rather than these changes helping Napier recruit.

Maybe that’s splitting hairs, but I suspect Nick Saban could recruit 5-stars to just about anywhere. After all, he landed T.J. Duckett (#1 player in the nation) and Plaxico Burress at Michigan State. We’ll know pretty soon whether the same is true about Billy Napier.

Question (Devon M.): Hi guys, would be interested to hear your thoughts on what the optimal scholarship breakdown would be by position and class. I’d also be interested to know how the potential of Florida recruiting an increased number of higher rated players may impact on specific numbers taken.

Answer (Will): I’m going to be writing about this later in the week, but the answer is it depends on what sort of offense and/or defense you’re going to run.

For instance, if you’re running a 4-3 defense, you don’t need as many linebackers as if you’re running a 3-4. The fact that Napier has lasered-in on the safety position – especially when you consider that DC Patrick Toney has been a safeties coach in the past and that Florida was already pretty healthy from a number’s perspective at the position – says something about what they are planning to do.

Toney is a disciple of Ron Roberts, the current Baylor defensive coordinator who was also a mentor for current Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. Aranda (and Roberts’) defenses are really hybrid units that expect their players to be able to do multiple things. A guy like Gervon Dexter is perfect for this sort of defense as he isn’t a lumbering defensive tackle, but an athletic guy who should have the ability to drop into coverage on some plays. That opens up the opportunity for Toney to send pressure from somewhere else without having to sacrifice the integrity of the defense like you do on a blitz.

That still doesn’t answer your question though. For a defense of that sort, you’re going to go harder after linebackers and safeties than you do after corners and defensive linemen. That doesn’t mean the latter two are less important, just that you can’t do a lot of the things Toney is going to want to do without flexible guys at the former.

Typically, that means you’re looking at 3-6 defensive tackles, 6-10 defensive ends, 5-8 inside LBs, 5-8 outside LBs, 5-8 safeties and 5-10 corners.

On the offensive side of the ball, the numbers games is far more consistent. There, you’re looking at 4-6 running backs, 3-4 QBs, 2-4 tight ends, 5-8 slot receivers, 5-8 wide receivers, and 14-18 offensive linemen.

That should tell you where the attrition is going to come from and where the gains should come from as well. Florida has 12 safeties and was looking to add one more (Jacoby Mathews). They only have 8 total linebackers, inside and outside as well as 7 total wide receivers. They also have 6 QBs.

So even with the ranges I’ve given, you can see what’s probably going to happen. If you have to sacrifice someone at the QB position for a high-level transfer, you should do it. We’re going to see this as the spring portal season comes around and Florida looks to fill in gaps left by the previous staff.

Question (Devon M.): Hi guys, another one from me. If you were able to reset college football and start from a blank canvas what changes would you make and what would it look like? I ask because I really enjoy college football and have little to no interest in the NFL besides knowing how many Gators get drafted and how they are doing in the league. I have heard the arguments for NIL and can understand why something of that nature may be required but I also feel like it is has continued the trend of making it feel more like the NFL to me.

Answer (Will): In my mind, the first thing we need to determine is whether college football is a business.

I don’t think that’s the case for all levels of the game. For instance, the Ivy League made a decision years ago to not give out athletic scholarships and step away from the growth of college athletics. We can argue about whether that was a good or bad decision, but they made that decision.

I think though that the size of the stadiums, the pride of championships, being able to watch on TV, etc. are all things fans want. That means it’s a business.

So if I’m going to run a business, I’m going to have to set some rules. The NFL has a ton of parity because they’ve decided that parity is good for business. It’s good that there are only a few awful franchises that don’t compete regularly. But if the Lions, for example, do win 10 or 11 games at some point, they will have a chance at a title. That’s important that there is hope at the beginning of the year, even if it is wiped out with the yearly 1-3 start.

So what I’d do is be honest. Have football coaching as a major, with paths to get into the profession clearly lined out for players. Then set up a 40-team league consisting of the following:

This leaves off some powerful programs. No more Enter Sandman in Blacksburg and no more Jump Around at Camp Randall are tough traditions to lose. But look at the divisions this produces:

Proposed 40-team College Football league. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Concerns about the sport being regional go away as there is solid representation from different areas of the U.S. You can also compensate players appropriately because every game is going to drive revenue, both TV and gate.

Every game is excellent. You play every team in your division (9 games), then 3 out of conference games – one from each division – that rotate every year.

Because every team has a chance to win a championship, there is more parity in recruiting. That means that a 12-team tournament like the NFL had until this year makes sense. One loss doesn’t eliminate anyone from contention, but conference victories would still be more important than out of conference games. Each of these conferences could compete independently in college basketball, allowing the NCAA tournament to continue as it does, but also ensuring that the college basketball bluebloods get to maintain that status.

This will absolutely feel much more like the NFL. But let’s be honest, for the past 40 years, nobody outside of this group has really competed for a  championship. This is just being honest about it, maximizing revenue, making sure the games are always excellent, and hopefully reducing the recruiting advantage of the Alabama’s of the world.

It’s probably a good thing I’m not commissioner.

Question (Brian R.): This is for Nick. Will the Jaguars be able to find an actual starting level WR1 this off season whether through the draft or free agency? Is it fair to say some college receiver corps were actually better than what the Jags cobbled together for 2021?

Answer (Nick): It’s fair to say whatever you’d like about the Jaguars, Brian.

It’s difficult to get a real read on any offseason moves at the moment seeing as the organization is currently deciding whether they should allow a first time head coaching candidate to dictate who should be sitting in the GM’s chair (Editor’s note: the Jags hired Doug Pederson as HC after this was written).

The easy answer would be a strong, “No,” to the Jags finding an actual starting level WR1 this offseason but let’s pretend for this exercise that our Jags are somewhat competent.

The singular ray of hope for this franchise (which has often had none) rests on the development of Trevor Lawrence. We’ve pinned our hopes on to much lesser first-round quarterbacks: Blake, Blaine, and Byron, but unlike those frauds, we have real reasons to believe that Lawrence hasn’t come close to reaching his potential after being surrounded by a circus in his rookie year.

Jacksonville needs to look north for their shining example. The Buffalo Bills have spent each offseason collecting talent around their young quarterback. The result: 35+ passing touchdowns in years three and four after only 10 passing touchdowns in 12 games in Josh Allen’s rookie year. Though most of the offensive talent surrounding Allen has been added through the draft (Davis, Knox, Sibgletary, and Moss), the Bills have done an excellent job of sprinkling in free agent talent (Beasley, Sanders, and three OL starters) to create a high-flying offense.

The biggest move was a 2020 trade which yielded Buffalo a true No. 1 WR. Stefon Diggs was acquired from Minnesota for a 2020 first, fifth, and sixth round pick along with a fourth rounder in 2021. Trading for a proven commodity is both the quickest and costliest way to acquire a top-level wide receiver, so before we go down that road, let’s explore the free agent market and the draft.

According to spotrac.com, the top wideouts hitting free agency are: Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Will Fuller, Jamison Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders, A.J. Green, Juju Smith-Schuster, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Williams. Odell is out there but the Jags need a positive rebuild and shouldn’t bother with a guy who will demand a trade in two years.

A Robinson return to Jax would be popular among the fans but like Godwin, do the Jags want to invest a ton of money into a guy who has dealt with a major knee injury? If you think that’s harsh, think about Robinson’s career to this point, he’s been a good player on a lot of bad offenses. Not quite that clear cut No. 1 but would be an excellent second option.

The only true top-tier receiver in this free agency class is Adams. With uncertainty around Rodgers in Green Bay, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Adams hit the market and leave, especially if Rodgers doesn’t return. Since this will likely be his last big deal, he’ll likely seek out a win-now type of situation (KC, Buffalo, Tampa, etc.) versus a rebuild.

The rest of the free agency pool is uninspiring, though Mike Williams finally woke up in LA this year. Williams is a young player who could be interested in the partnering with a fellow Clemson grad. The pair missed each other by a year at Clemson, but could be a formidable connection on the pro level.

But does Mike Williams, a disappointing first rounder outside of some positive production in a contract year, fit the bill as a true No.1 WR?

Nope.

So the answer is likely not in free agency. Let’s go to the draft.

Top-flight receivers can be drafted all over the board. Most experts agree the Jags are going to go with OT Evan Neal out of Alabama with the top pick in the draft (as they should), so the earliest they’d go with a receiver is in at the top of the second round.

Drake London (USC) and Garret Wilson (Ohio State) are almost certain to be gone by then, so that leaves us with: Jameson Williams (Bama), Chris Olave (Ohio State), Treylon Burks (Arkansas), John Metchie (Bama), Jahan Dotson (Penn State), Skyy Moore (Western Michigan), David Bell (Purdue), Justyn Ross (Clemson), George Pickens (Georgia), and Wan’Dale Robinson (Kentucky).

Some good names on that list, but do any jump out as a clear-cut number one for 2022? I’m a big fan of Olave, but he strikes me more as a No. 2 at the pro level. Ross, and Pickens are all wild cards. Each has excellent talent, but each has their question marks.

Treylon Burks is someone I would seriously consider at the top of the second. He’s 6’3″, 225 pounds and is dynamic enough to play inside or outside. Burks followed a 51 catch season in 2020 with a 66 reception/11 TD campaign this past season.

Burks looks to be a phenomenal talent but the odds of him coming in year one, lighting up the league and being a true No. 1 are slim. So, the last option for a No. 1 in 2022 would have to be a trade.

Remember, we’re operating under the hypothetical, however unrealistic it may be, that Jax is being running with some competency, meaning the top pick in the draft would not be used to trade for a wide receiver.

However, the Jags do possess 11 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including five picks in the first three rounds:

There has to be a world in which the Jags could potentially use some of their early round draft capital to trade for a solid wideout.

Would the new Vikings administration ship off Adam Thielen to save a few bucks for a pick in the third round?

Assuming he was on-board with the move and wouldn’t cause headaches like he has done in New Orleans, could the Jags use multiple picks to relieve both Michael Thomas and the Saints of their mutual struggle?

Is Amari Cooper’s price tag getting to be a burden on the Dallas cap?

Can we let Trevor play GM for a moment and trade one of our third round picks to the Raiders for his buddy and productive NFL WR Hunter Renfrow?

In terms of true No.1 production, Thomas would be the ceiling this offseason via trade, but it’d cost a lot of draft capital to get him and the Jags still need all of the help they can get.

I’d like to see a Buffalo-like approach to the problem with some combination of the three (free agency, draft and trade) being utilized in this rebuilding effort.

Imagine a scenario where the Jags signed Mike Williams, traded for Thielen, and snagged Burks at the top of the second round. That true No. 1 presence may be lacking, but Lawrence would be in a much better position headed in 2022.

And Trevor and his receivers all lived happily ever after…THE END!

Just kidding, let’s wake up from fantasy land and realize we’re still the Jags and good fortune smiles on others, not us.

We’ll overpay for Sammy Watkins, who won’t suit up for 14 games next season, draft George Pickens, who will be suspended for half the season for punching a mascot, and trade for Jalen Reagor, who Shad Khan will publicly celebrate as, “the guy who was drafted ahead of Justin Jefferson!”

Shad will bring back Gus Bradley after Byron punts the punter, Trevor will buy Blake’s beach house and become a Jax Beach icon like Bortles, and we’ll be right back at the top of the draft in 2023 after living through another nightmare season! #DTWD

Question (Will M.): Guys, did you see the recruiting video of Brian Kelly “dancing” with that LSU recruit this weekend? Is there any way that a 16, 17 or 18 year old kid looks at that video and thinks “yeah, that’s my coach?”

Answer (Will): For those who haven’t seen the video that this question is asking about, here you go.

I didn’t share that because it really sheds any new light on the question. I shared it because if I have to see that monstrosity, so do you.

Here’s the deal: Brian Kelly is a chameleon. In many ways, salespeople are forced to be in that they can’t possibly like everyone they come into contact with, yet they have to pretend in order to make the sale. This is how you end up with Kelly butchering a southern accent in his first public appearance as LSU head coach and then the ridicule accompanying this video. As someone who’s pretty much you see what you get, I’m a bit in awe of his ability to embrace this level of weird to get the job done.

From the outside, this video makes us question whether he’s a predator. But from the inside, this certainly proves to any player considering LSU that Kelly will bend over backwards to make them happy. We’ve all made bad purchases in our life that were facilitated by listening to a slick salesperson. I mean, Billy Mays apparently had a net worth north of $10 million when he died, built on selling OxiClean.

Whether the OxiClean ever worked, and whether Kelly is going to be able to fulfill the promises that he is making, is yet to be determined. One thing we’ve learned about the transfer portal thus far is that lower-tier 4-star players don’t really have a huge market unless they’ve played a lot. Elite prospects have a wide-open market. Kelly’s going to have a lot more of the latter than he had when he was at Notre Dame.

I’m interested to see whether this approach works in the short-term but backfires when it comes to elite commits deciding to transfer.

If nothing else, Nick and I had an argument about Brian Kelly on Stand Up & Holler recently where he insisted that LSU finally had a “normal” head coach after the Les Miles and Ed Orgeron eras.

Pretty sure this video means I won that one, Nick.

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