Anthony Richardson made a strong impression despite playing a limited role last season. Outside of USC transfer quarterback Jaxson Dart, Vegas sees Richardson as the most likely first-year starting quarterback to make a run at the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but which numbers will the redshirt sophomore from Gainesville Eastside need to duplicate in order to stand among the three statues outside of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium?
The stats of the 16 Heisman winning quarterbacks since 2002 can create a roadmap to Richardson hoisting the Heisman this December.
Embed from Getty Images2022 Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman odds via The Action Network
| Player | Pos./Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud | QB, Ohio State | +200 |
| Bryce Young | QB, Alabama | +350 |
| Caleb Williams | QB, USC | +900 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB, Texas | +2000 |
| DJ Uiagalelei | QB, Clemson | +2800 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR, Ohio State | +3000 |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB, Oklahoma | +3000 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB, Ole Miss | +3500 |
| Tyler Van Dyke | QB, Miami | +3500 |
| Anthony Richardson | QB, Florida | +4000 |
| Kedon Slovis | QB, Pitt | +4000 |
| Spencer Rattler | QB, South Carolina | +4000 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB, Ohio State | +4000 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | DL, Alabama | +4000 |
Heisman Trophy Quarterbacks (2002-2021)
2021 – Bryce Young, Alabama
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Did Young have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Young locked up the Heisman vote by throwing for 421 yards and 3 TDs and rushing for another 40 yards and one touchdown to lead Alabama to a SEC championship and a playoff berth.
2019 – Joe Burrow, LSU
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Burrow and the 2019 LSU football team will go down as legends until the end of time in the state of Louisiana. He was the perfect quarterback for a perfect team and a no-brainer first-place ballot by early December. There were only two games in which Burrow failed to throw for at least three touchdowns and he topped the 400-yard mark passing on two occasions.
Did Burrow have a defining Heisman moment?
No, the overall excellence of Joe Burrow and the LSU offense was on display from start to finish of the 2019 season. Nearly every time he touched the field was a stand out performance – arguably winning at Alabama locked up the Heisman Trophy – but he served as the front runner for a good portion of the season.
2018 – Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
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Did Murray have a defining Heisman moment?
No, Tua Tagovailoa was a threat, but both he and Murray performed well throughout the season. Murray did almost as much damage as Mayfield through the air while proving to be much more lethal on the ground.
2017 – Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
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Did Mayfield have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Mayfield was a highlight machine throughout the entire season – even his sideline antics against lowly Kansas turned into a national storyline – however, leading Oklahoma to a road win against #2 Ohio State and planting the OU flag at midfield of Ohio Stadium put Mayfield on the road to New York.
2016 – Lamar Jackson, Louisville
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Did Jackson have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Louisville rose to #3 in the polls twice in 2016: once after waxing #2 Florida State 63–20 with College GameDay in attendance and again after rebounding from a tough road loss in a classic duel against Deshaun Watson. Jackson was electric against FSU, rushing for 146 yards and 4 TDs. He added another 162 yards on 31 attempts on a Saturday night nationally televised road game at #5 Clemson.
2014 – Marcus Mariota, Oregon
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Aside from a 31-24 loss at Arizona, Mariota led a stellar Ducks offense to more than 40 points in 11 out of 13 games. Oregon landed the #2 seed and a Rose Bowl berth in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Did Mariota have a defining Heisman moment?
No, Mariota thrived all season long. It helped that he did not go up against a star-studded group, beating out Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon and Alabama WR Amari Cooper. To further illustrate the point – who finished fourth on the ballot? TCU QB Trevone Boykin.
2013 -Jameis Winston, Florida State
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Did Winston have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Winston put the nation on notice from the start, but he did have a clear moment where he went from freshman sensation to the leader of the best team in the nation and Heisman favorite. Florida State’s mid-October beatdown of #3 Clemson in Death Valley featured 444 yards passing, 3 TDs through the air, and a 51-14 victory.
2012 -Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
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Did Manziel have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, perhaps more than anyone else over the last two decades. Manziel went into Tuscaloosa and led three touchdown drives on the Aggies’ first three possessions to give Texas A&M a 20-0 first quarter lead over Saban and the Tide. Texas A&M held on for a massive 29-24 upset to give Manziel his Heisman moment.
2011 – Robert Griffin III, Baylor
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The Bears may have only started the season 4-3, but Griffin excelled in Art Briles’ wide-open passing attack, throwing for 400 yards or more in four out of five games in the middle of the season. Though Griffin operated with a pass-first mentality, he also proved to be extremely effective in the running game.
Did Griffin have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, RGIII shined in the national spotlight down the stretch leading Baylor to a 45-38 home victory over #5 Oklahoma. Griffin threw for 479 yards and 4 TDs while adding another 72 yards on the ground. He cemented his Heisman by leading a 48 point outburst against Texas to close the season.
2010 – Cam Newton, Auburn
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Florida transfer QB Cam Newton served as the face of the greatest season in Auburn football history. Much like Tebow, he proved to be an unstoppable force on the ground while still being effective in the passing game. Newton’s Heisman resume featured six games with under 200 yards of passing, but between his statistical dominance and Auburn’s run to a national title, the future #1 pick in the NFL Draft more than doubled second place finisher Andrew Luck’s voting tally becoming the first Heisman Trophy winner on The Plains since Bo Jackson.
Did Newton have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, despite some late season controversy surrounding claims of improper benefits, Newton stayed the course, rolled into Tuscaloosa, and overcame a 21-0 deficit by throwing for 3 TDs and running for a score to keep the Tigers’ perfect season in tact in a game for ages which earned the nickname, “The Camback.”
2008 – Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
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Bradford ran OC Kevin Wilson’s up-tempo offense to near perfection and appeared to be unstoppable heading into a national championship matchup with Florida. Oklahoma scored 58+ points in their final six games as Bradford only failed to reach the 300-yard passing mark on two occasions.
Did Bradford have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Bradford solidified his spot in New York and overcame the overwhelming force that was Tim Tebow to lock up the Heisman Trophy by leading the Sooners to three straight 60+ point outbursts against #2 Texas Tech, #12 Oklahoma State, and #20 Missouri in the Big XII Championship Game.
2007 – Tim Tebow, Florida
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A surprise 2006 national title run got the Urban Meyer era off to a red-hot start in Gainesville, but when Chris Leak turned the reigns over to Tim Tebow, Meyer and OC Dan Mullen’s offense went to the next level. In addition to being a wrecking ball on 3rd & short, the Gators only failed to hit the 30 point mark twice in back-to-back losses against Auburn and on the road at eventual national champion, LSU. 
Did Tebow have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Tebow was in the Heisman conversation throughout the 2007 season, but a seven touchdown performance (5 rushing and 2 passing) sealed the deal for the third Heisman Trophy winner in the history of Florida football.
2006 – Troy Smith, Ohio State
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Did Smith have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan squared off in a “game of the century” type of environment in Columbus. Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler would have been shocked to see both teams combine for 81 points. Smith saved his best for last, throwing for 316 yards and 4 TDs en route to a 42-39 Ohio State victory and a berth in the BCS Championship Game against the Florida Gators.
2004 – Matt Leinart, USC
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Leinart led a lethal USC attack and may have benefitted from the presence of LenDale White to split carries with the electric Reggie Bush. Bush would get his Heisman in 2005, but Leinart served as the face of the wire-to-wire #1 team in America coming off of the 2003 split title with LSU. 
Did Leinart have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, though he saw plenty of time in the spotlight, 400-yards passing and 5 TD performance against Notre Dame in the season finale didn’t hurt Leinart’s chances at winning a Heisman.
2003 – Jason White, Oklahoma
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Did White have a defining Heisman moment?
No, a strong performance throughout the year culminated with 13 TDs and 0 INT in the final three games of the regular season. White beat out a field which included Pitt WR Larry Fitzgerald and Ole Miss QB Eli Manning.
2002 – Carson Palmer, USC
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USC was finally back in the national limelight in year two of the Pete Carroll era. Palmer led the Trojans to their first 10-win season since 1988 and, in the process, became USC first Heisman Trophy winner since RB Marcus Allen in 1981.
Did Palmer have a defining Heisman moment?
Yes, Palmer rose to the occasion in a Top-10 finale against Notre Dame, racking up 425 yards and 4 TDs through the air. Palmer beat out a field that included Iowa QB Brad Banks, Penn State RB Larry Johnson, and Miami teammates RB Willis McGahee and QB Ken Dorsey.
What does this mean for Anthony Richardson?
Every Heisman Trophy winning quarterback since 2010 has crossed the 4,000 total yard threshold. Winston, Young, Mariota, and Bradford did not cross the 4,550 total yard mark, however, each led their squads to national title appearances. Manziel, Griffin, and Mayfield each totaled 4,600+ yards and are likely more indicative of what Richardson would have to accomplish this season to be considered for the award.
| YEAR | WINNER | PASS YARDS | RUSH YARDS | TOTAL YARDS |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 4715 | 289 | 5004 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 4053 | 892 | 4945 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 3390 | 1538 | 4928 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 4340 | 310 | 4650 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 3998 | 644 | 4642 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 3419 | 1181 | 4600 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 4464 | 65 | 4529 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 3803 | 669 | 4472 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 4322 | 31 | 4353 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 3820 | 193 | 4013 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 2589 | 1409 | 3998 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 3132 | 838 | 3970 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 3744 | -104 | 3640 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 3639 | -126 | 3513 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 2990 | -33 | 2957 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 2507 | 233 | 2740 |
RICHARDSON TOTAL YARDS GOAL: 4,600 TOTAL YARDS
Burrow, Bradford, Mayfield, and Young were each awarded a Heisman Trophy without much need for rushing statistics thanks to outstanding work through the air and national title contending status. If Richardson does not want to rely on his rushing numbers, he’ll need to throw for over 4,300 passing yards (averaging 330.7 passing yards per game). Should he cross the 600-yard mark on the ground, Richardson may be able to get away with closer to 3,800 yards passing. If he were to exceed 1,000 yards rushing, his passing numbers can drop in the Tebow, Jackson, and Manziel range (3,100-3,400 passing yards) so long as he accounts for enough touchdowns.
| YR | WINNER | PASS YARDS |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 4,715 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 4,464 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 4,340 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 4,322 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 4,053 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 3,998 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 3,820 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 3,803 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 3,744 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 3,639 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 3,419 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 3,390 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 3,132 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 2,990 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 2,589 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 2,507 |
RICHARDSON PASSING YDS GOAL
(0-299 RUSHING YARDS): 4,300+ YDS
(300-799 RUSHING YARDS): 3,800+ YDS
(800-1,000+ RUSHING YARDS): 3,100+ YDS
Jackson, Newton, Manziel, and Tebow – four quarterbacks who each relied on their ground game to enhance their resume – rushed for at least 19 touchdowns on the ground. Kyler Murray posted 11 TDs, but excellent rushing numbers were complemented by excellent passing numbers as the one-time MLB prospect exceeded 4,000 yards passing and threw for 40 touchdowns. A dominant performance on the ground would be Richardson’s quickest path to New York.
| YR | HEISMAN | RUSH YARDS |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 1538 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 1409 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 1181 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 892 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 838 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 669 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 644 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 310 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 289 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 233 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 193 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 65 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 31 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | -33 |
| 2003 | Jason White | -104 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | -126 |
RICHARDSON RUSHING YDS GOAL: 1,000 YDS
Only six of the previous 16 Heisman Trophy quarterbacks since 2002 have hit the 40 passing touchdown threshold. If Richardson is a vital weapon in the running game, the 30 touchdown mark through the air has shown to be enough in the past, but he would solidify his odds if he were to hit the 35 passing TD mark.
| YR | HEISMAN | PASS TD |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 48 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 48 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 43 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 41 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 40 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 40 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 38 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 38 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 36 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 32 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 30 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 30 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 29 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 28 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 28 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 24 |
RICHARDSON PASSING TDS GOAL: 30 TDS
Prominent running Heisman Trophy quarterbacks have no issue finding the end zone. Tebow averaged close to two rushing touchdowns per game and rushed for just seven touchdowns less than he tallied up through the air (29 pass TD/22 rush TD). Other elite rushers such as Newton (28 pass TD/20 rush TD) and Jackson (30 pass TD/21 rush TD). Manziel (24 pass TD/19 rush TD) came close on the touchdown front, but accounted for approx. 600 more yards than either Newton or Tebow. Richardson would likely need to at least match Mariota’s 14 rushing touchdowns to be in consideration, but exceeding the 15 rushing TD mark would create a more viable resume should he end up close to 30 TDs passing.
| YR | HEISMAN | RUSH TD |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 22 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 21 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 20 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 19 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 14 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 11 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 9 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 5 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 5 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 4 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 4 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 3 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 3 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 3 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 1 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 1 |
RICHARDSON RUSHING TDS GOAL: 16 TDS
Should Richardson cross the 50-TD barrier, it seems safe to say he’ll win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. Manziel provides an interesting path – scoring a combined total of 43 touchdowns. If the Gators lean on Richardson near the goal line, he may have no issue scoring the 43 + total touchdowns needed to be in the mix as a Heisman candidate. If he can cross the 45 touchdown mark, Richardson would likely be the front runner in December.
| YR | HEISMAN | PASS TD | RUSH TD | TOTAL TD |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 48 | 5 | 53 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 38 | 14 | 52 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 29 | 22 | 51 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 30 | 21 | 51 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 40 | 11 | 51 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | 48 | 3 | 51 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 28 | 20 | 48 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 41 | 5 | 46 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | 43 | 3 | 46 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 36 | 9 | 45 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | 38 | 4 | 42 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 40 | 1 | 41 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 32 | 4 | 36 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 28 | 3 | 31 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 30 | 1 | 31 |
RICHARDSON TOTAL TDS GOAL: 46 TDS
The Anthony Richardson Heisman Roadmap
The statistical thresholds between Anthony Richardson and the Heisman Trophy are clear based on the most recent winners, however, there will be some level of variation allowed in the passing numbers should he not reach the 1,000 yard mark rushing. Total yardage and total touchdowns can be used as more important indicators specific passing or rushing statistics.
| TOTAL YARDS | 4,600 |
| PASSING YARDS (0-299 RUSHING YARDS) | 4,300 |
| PASSING YARDS (300-799 RUSHING YARDS) | 3,800 |
| PASSING YARDS (800-1,000+ RUSHING YARDS) | 3,100 |
| RUSHING YARDS | 1,000 |
| PASSING TDS | 30 |
| RUSHING TDS | 16 |
| TOTAL TDS | 46 |
In terms of team success, Richardson will have to deliver in a few big moments to ensure Florida is ranked high enough to warrant consideration.
Though the Heisman Trophy is technically an individual award, it is not a coincidence that 5 of 6 Heisman winners during the playoff era led their teams to a spot in the College Football Playoff. If Florida fails to qualify for a playoff spot, which even the most ardent Florida fan will admit to be a tall task for the 2022 Gators, Richardson can follow the path of the likes of Lamar Jackson, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, or Tim Tebow by dominating statistically while losing no more than three regular season games to achieve a ranking of at least #13 in the polls.
| YR | WINNER | SCHOOL | RANK | BOWL |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | Alabama | 1 | CFP |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | LSU | 1 | CFP |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 4 | CFP |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 2 | CFP |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | 13 | Citrus |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 2 | CFP |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | 1 | BCS Championship |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | 9 | Cotton |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 12 | Alamo |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | Auburn | 1 | BCS Championship |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | 2 | BCS Championship |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | Florida | 12 | Capital One |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | Ohio State | 1 | BCS Championship |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | USC | 1 | BCS Championship |
| 2003 | Jason White | Oklahoma | 2 | BCS Championship |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | USC | 5 | Orange |
If Richardson can check the statistics box and lead the Gators to at least a 9-3 record, the final piece of the puzzle would be a signature win or defining Heisman moment. Luckily for Richardson, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make his mark early and often in the first two months of the season.
Richardson can potentially notch Top-10 victories against Utah, LSU, Georgia, and Texas A&M. If you factor in Kentucky and Tennessee, the Gators will likely face six ranked foes this season.
| YR | WINNER | SCHOOL | Ranked Wins | Top-10 Ranked Wins | Nov/Dec Wins |
| 2021 | Bryce Young | Alabama | 5 | 1 | 5-0 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | LSU | 5 | 5 | 5-0 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 5-0 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 4 | 2 | 5-0 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | 1 | 1 | 2-2 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 4 | 2 | 5-0 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | 4 | 2 | 6-0 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | 3 | 1 | 4-0 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 3 | 1 | 5-0 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | Auburn | 5 | 1 | 4-0 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | 5 | 1 | 5-0 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | Florida | 2 | 1 | 4-0 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 3-0 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | USC | 2 | 1 | 4-0 |
| 2003 | Jason White | Oklahoma | 4 | 0 | 4-1 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | USC | 8 | 1 | 4-0 |
A big outing against Utah will put him on the map and if the Gators can go on the road at Knoxville to close out a strong September (3-1 minimum), Richardson’s Heisman Trophy stock may be through the roof heading into a potential Top-10 LSU coming to The Swamp in mid-October.
Should things still be on track after the LSU game, Richardson will have a golden opportunity to create a Heisman moment in back-to-back weeks against Georgia and on the road at Texas A&M. Heisman winners rarely lose in November meaning Florida’s November 5 trip to Aggieland may serve as the make or break point of Richardson’s Heisman campaign.
A very winnable three-game post-Texas A&M slate for the Gators may create enough of a distraction to allow another Heisman contender to leapfrog Richardson down the stretch, but hopefully, he’ll have made enough of a case in September and October that an unbeaten November stretch would be enough to keep him cemented at the top-spot of many Heisman ballots.
Overall, a 9-3 record may be enough should Richardson put up crazy numbers, but a 10-2 final record and kicking off a 4-0 November with an upset win on the road at Texas A&M would go a long way toward Anthony Richardson securing the 2022 Heisman Trophy.