2022 Gators Football Season Preview

Will Miles and Nick Knudsen preview the 2022 Gators football season with picks across several different categories.

Gators Defensive MVP

WILL MILES

OLB/EDGE Brenton Cox

Cox was a monster in the last three games of 2021, accounting for 15 tackles, 9 TFL and 6 sacks. Cox’s total line for the season was 41 tackles, 14.5 TFL and 8 sacks, so clearly he did most of his damage towards the tail end of the season.

Of course, Cox always was injured during fall camp, enough so that reports (from Georgia sources, admittedly) indicated he might be out for an extended time. Cox didn’t miss any time, but anyone who watched him saw him get better as everyone else around him got worse. To me, that suggest health.

Add to that health the fact that this is Cox’s chance to show out for NFL scouts, his pedigree as a former 5-star recruit and some potential schematic advantages from new defensive coordinator Patrick Toney and I think you’ve got a recipe for a huge season from Florida’s main source of rushing the passer.

NICK KNUDSEN

LB Ventrell Miller

Miller accounted for an impressive 86 total tackles, 7.5 TFL, and 3.5 sacks during a COVID shortened, turbulent 2020 season. Miller returned for 2021 to shore up his draft stock, but had his season wiped out with an early injury. The absence of his presence and communication skills played a significant role in the decline of the 2021 Gators down the stretch.

Miller looks to regain form in a new scheme under new DC Patrick Toney and can help bring along a young linebacking corps which includes promising prospects such as Derek Wingon, Scooby Williams, Shemar James, and Diwun Black. A strong start by Miller could set the tone with run-heavy Utah and Kentucky coming to town to open the season. If Miller bounces back after the injury, the sixth-year senior has the chance to be the heart and soul of this defense.

Gators Offensive MVP – non AR division

MILES

TE Keon Zipperer

It’s easy to pick a running back here, or perhaps a wide receiver who steps up into a larger role, but I’m going with Zipperer. Zipp was a highly touted recruit out of Lakeland and has played behind Kyle Pitts and Kemore Gamble. Pitts was a transcendent player and Gamble was very good, so there’s no shame in that.

But Dan Mullen’s offense also didn’t really look to feature tight ends. Pitts made most of his plays split out wide or down the middle using his athletic ability. Napier is going to try to scheme open his tight ends and use them in the passing game a ton.

It’s easy to forget now, but after Florida fell behind 14-0 against Georgia in 2020, it was a 39-yard pass to Zipperer that completely turned the game around. Zipp completely bullied the Georgia defenders on him on the play and from that point on, the Bulldogs had zero answers for Kyle Trask.

KNUDSEN

WR Trent Whittemore

All the focus this offseason has been on the running game and arrival of Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall. While Pearsall is a good candidate for this pick, I’m going in a different direction and selecting WR Trent Whittemore. The RS Sophomore from Gainesville Buchholz has a chance to fly under the radar toward a break out season with the majority of the opposing defense’s attention on Pearsall or WR Justin Shorter.

Whittemore has shown the ability to make big plays, but was limited by injuries in 2020 and the lack of real threat to push the field downfield last season. If he can stay healthy, he should play a pivotal role in the offense and, hopefully, develop into the consistent weapon at receiver which Florida currently lacks.

Surprise player of 2022 (good or bad)

MILES

WR Marcus Burke

I suppose Zipperer may qualify here as well, but if I had to pick someone else, it would be wide receiver Marcus Burke.

I’m not sure if Burke is going to get a chance to show what he can do, but he should. He’s really the only receiver who I’ve seen show the ability to take the top off of a defense. Last year, that didn’t matter all that much. But this season, Anthony Richardson is going to have a bunch of opportunities to connect on deep throws. Burke may just be the guy on the other end.

Florida certainly needs someone to step up at the position. With the departures of Jacob Copeland and all of the talent that’s been sent to the NFL recently, Florida is really, really thin at receiver.

I’m not saying Burke is going to have 30 catches or anything like that. But when a defense (cough…Utah….cough) gets caught watching Richardson, it may just be an opportunity to get someone who 247Sports described as “seems to have a second gear which allows him to get behind defensive backs” on the other end of the Richardson dagger.

KNUDSEN

K Trey Smack or K Adam Mihalek

A missed extra point should not cause issues on the biggest stages. Last season, K Chris Howard, Florida’s primary starter for the majority of the season, hit 7-9 field goals and 31-32 on extra points, but a missed extra point against Alabama forced Florida into a scrambled two-point attempt to tie late and a blocked field goal against returned for a touchdown at Kentucky (kicked by Jace Christmann) linger as two major moments that led to the downfall of the 2021 season.

As of August 28, 2022, Billy Napier has not named a starter at kicker, but whether it is Trey Smack or Adam Mihalek, there is a good chance that the kicker will not cost Florida multiple games this season and will become a key weapon for a team that is likely to rely on running the ball and not turning the ball over to win close games.

Biggest Gators’ win in 2022

MILES

September 3 vs. Utah

Yep, I’m picking it. You have a top-10 team coming into the Swamp, with enemy intelligence from Mohamoud Diabate and an unranked Gators team. You also have what is going to be the most jacked Swamp that many of us have likely ever seen, a cloud of humidity hanging over the stadium and a fanbase that feels like Napier is finally the guy to make the stadium roar like it did in 1996, 2006 and 2008.

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I think Florida is going to have some growing pains this season. Likely they will lose a game that they should win and Napier may have rockier days ahead. But he’s also had 9 months to prepare for Utah and QB Cam Rising. That army that he talks about isn’t just for recruiting. They know his tendencies, what he likes to do and potentially how to force a turnover or two.

For their sake, Utah had better be ahead by at least 10 by halfway through the second quarter. Because if they aren’t, it’s going to be like a mile racer who tried to get ahead by sprinting for the first 400 meters. By the time that guy comes around for the last lap, he doesn’t have anything left and his opponents go right by.

The difference is, the Utes are being chased by a bunch of Gators.

KNUDSEN

Oct.15 vs LSU

Billy Napier will have several opportunities to go big-game hunting with the way the schedule plays out this season, but his biggest win will be on October 15 at home against LSU.

Check out LSU’s schedule leading up to Florida:Image pulled from FBS Schedules.

Mike Norvell’s FSU, a Mike Leach Mississippi State, an expectation-less Auburn, and overhyped Tennessee are certainly no pushovers, but would it be a total surprise to see Brian Kelly’s Tigers navigate their first six games without a loss?

If LSU rolls into Gainesville at 6-0 in mid-October, you’d have to assume they would be a Top-5 opponent. Even in Napier kicks things off with a win over #7 Utah, the only two other potential shots at Top-5 wins would likely come against Georgia and on the road at Texas A&M. As much as I would like to see an upset against UGA or A&M, the Gators have a better shot at knocking off LSU in The Swamp for their biggest win of the season.

Gators record in 2022

MILES

Of the past six Gators head coaches, only two (Zook and Muschamp) lost more games than their predecessor the year before. Spurrier and Meyer improved the record by two games (7-5 to 9-2 and 9-3). McElwain improved that to 10-4 while Mullen improved a 4-7 squad to 10-3.

So unless you think Napier is sleeping four hours fast or doesn’t know how to coach and recruit the offensive line, we should expect some sort of improvement. How much is the question. But that’s where I go to the numbers.

Based on expected points added (EPA), Florida had almost identical numbers to Kentucky last year, but the Wildcats finished 9-3 in the regular season compared to 6-6 for Florida. But I expect the Gators to be better on offense under Richardson and I certainly expect them to be better than they were under Todd Grantham on defense.

I picked Florida to go 5-3 in the SEC in my SEC Preview article earlier this week. I’m picking them to win Utah above. That means heading into Ron Zook Stadium in Tallahassee with an opportunity to go 9-3 and potentially a New Year’s Six Bowl.

It’s just too bad we don’t have Chauncey Gardner-Johnson around to plant the flag at midfield.

KNUDSEN

Throughout the offseason, I’ve consistently tried to talk myself into 9-3 being a realistic goal. The two losses being Georgia and Texas A&M with another (Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU) being thrown in for conservative measure. However, this may be too much to ask for such a young team with so many question marks.

There’s too many major “if’s” on this roster.

If Richardson can stay healthy and play up to his potential?
If Shorter takes that next step?
If Pearsall works out?
If the defensive line can find depth behind Cox and Dexter?
If Sapp steps up?
If one of the young linebackers emerges?

There is plenty of potential on the 2022 roster, but I have a gut feeling it means this team will have a high ceiling, but a low floor. If Napier – another if – can deliver more consistency on a week-to-week basis, something that has eluded the Gators for the past two seasons, then perhaps Florida’s record will reflect its high-level potential.

The schedule should break down like this:
So, while 9-3 requires a big win against Utah, LSU, Georgia, or Texas A&M, Napier could just hold serve and patch together an 8-4 Outback Bowl type season.

While 8-4 seems like a reasonable bet based on how I laid it out above, I do believe this Gators team will drop a game many of us expect to win (Kentucky, Tennessee, Mizzou, South Carolina, or FSU) and win one against Utah, LSU, Georgia, or Texas A&M (my guess being LSU) to arrive at that 8-4 record,