Kentucky vs. Florida Preview

Kentucky vs. Florida is why it’s so hard to win in the SEC.

Florida comes off of an emotional 29-26 win over Utah and immediately has to turnaround and play Kentucky, a team that beat Florida last year and is predicted by many (not me) to finish second in the SEC East. To have that sort of turnaround is tough physically, but even more demanding emotionally.

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However, that sort of opener isn’t without its advantages.

Florida now knows that they can stand toe-to-toe with a high quality team. In fact, if you look at the advanced stats, Florida should have won that game handily, which should give them confidence moving forward that they can get way better if they fix the myriad mistakes made against the Utes.

By comparison, Kentucky may be able to get up emotionally for this game in a way Florida can’t, but the Wildcats also have no idea where they stand after a relatively uninspiring 37-13 win over Miami (OH). In fact, I’d wager that perhaps there is more doubt in Lexington about how good of a team they are than there was prior to the opener.

The sportsbooks certainly have that doubt too, as the Gators are now (as of 9/7) 5.5 point favorites. So do they deserve to be? Or should the Gators be worried that Kentucky is going to be able to pull an upset in the Swamp?

There’s no place like home

Kentucky QB Will Levis had a QB rating of 169.9 in the opener against Miami (OH), which is just shy of elite territory. Last year, his QB rating was 148.3, so the opener indicates that he’s taken a step forward, right?

Well, that sort of statement requires a closer look at the data from last year, in particular Levis’ home/road splits.

Levis was great last year in his home games, posting a Yards above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat for QB performance that takes running and throwing into account – of 1.39, which is very good, but not quite elite. That is confirmed by his QB rating of 167.1, indicating very good play, but not quite elite.

He was able to reproduce almost the exact same stat line in the air against Miami (OH), with a QB rating of 169.9. But his YAR for that game was only 0.34. That’s because he had 7 rushes for -18 yards instead of averaging 3.5 yards per rush. This suggests to me that Levis might be taking a step backwards as he’s asked to do more within the offense.

But the thing that these splits really point out to me is that having this game in the Swamp is really an advantage for the Gators.

Levis’ QB rating on the road last year dropped 43.5 points to well below average. His YAR fell to -1.04, which is really poor QB play. He wasn’t much better in the Wildcats’ one neutral site game either. His 18:7 TD:INT ratio at home is great. His 6:6 TD:INT ratio away from home is abysmal.

He was just a completely and totally different QB last year on the road. And he isn’t going to experience an environment any tougher than the Swamp.

Kentucky’s running game

The Gators weakness on defense is clearly on the ground.

In 2020, Florida ranked 78th in yards per rush allowed (4.6 yards per attempt). Last year, they were even worse (85th). That doesn’t appear to have changed too much, as the Gators surrendered 5.9 yards per rush against Utah and couldn’t stop the Utes at all in the second half.

However, Florida’s defense ranked 85th in yards per pass attempt (7.8) in 2020 but improved to 18th (6.5) in 2021. That appears to have continued as well, as the Gators surrendered 6.8 yards per attempt to Cam Rising, someone being lauded as one of the best QBs in the country coming into the game.

That means it would behoove the Wildcats to get their running game going. The problem is that they don’t have many running backs left with the suspension for DUI (and something else?) of starter Chris Rodriguez and injuries to FCS transfer Ramon Jefferson (torn ACL) and junior JuTahn McClain (week to week).

That leaves the ageless Kavosiey Smoke and freshman La’Vell Wright. Smoke is a super senior who has over 1300 yards in his career with an average of 5.6 yards per rush. He only has 10 catches in his career though, so has yet to show a skill that would be very helpful against Florida’s linebackers.

Wright is a freshman who had 9 carries last year and three in the game against Miami (OH) on Saturday. He averaged 13.1 yards per attempt last year, but that was likely in garbage time. He averaged 3.3 yards per rush on Saturday and caught one pass.

Smoke is a good player. Wright may be an excellent player eventually. Neither of these guys should strike fear in the Gators, even with a defensive line that has struggled.

Even if Rodriguez and Jefferson were around, I’m not sure Florida should be that scared of the Kentucky running game. After all, Miami (OH) was worse than Florida against the run in 2021 based on EPA and similar in yards per attempt allowed. You would have expected Kentucky to take advantage up-front against the Redhawks in the same way you might against the Gators.

Instead, Kentucky ran the ball 26 times for 50 yards (1.9 yards per attempt). Even if you remove Levis from that ledger, you’re still looking at an average of 3.6 yards per attempt. That isn’t the Kentucky program that we’ve come to expect over the past few years.

It also leads me into my next area of opportunity for the Gators.

Kentucky’s offensive line

The reason I was down on Kentucky coming into this year had very little to do with Levis. Though I’m not high on the guy, I realize he has some ability and can make some plays.

No, the reason I was down on Kentucky is because they went 5-1 last year in one-score games and while its offensive line was elite when running the ball (top-4 in every Football Outsiders OL running stat other than Power Success Rate), it was just average in pass protection.

• Sack Rate – 6.0% (54th)
• Standard Downs Sack Rate – 5.4% (67th)
• Passing Downs Sack Rate – 7.4% (53rd)

Then center Luke Fortner was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the third round and left tackle Darian Kinnard was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the fifth round. You have to go back to guard Larry Warford back in 2013 for a Kentucky offensive lineman to be drafted as high as Fortner. You have to go back to 1988 (Dermontti Dawson and Greg Kunkel) to find two Kentucky offensive linemen going in the same draft.

The line played poorly against Miami (OH). In fact if you look at Kentucky’s depth chart, Stoops has already made an adjustment. He’s listed Kenneth Horsey at left tackle replacing redshirt freshman Davis Wolhabaugh. Horsey has been banged up and would have been the starter against the Redhawks had he been able to go, but for a position group that requires continuity, this is an issue.

That’s particularly true when you look at the first half against Miami (OH) and how Kentucky’s offensive line performed.

On this play, the Redhawks just rush four men. Wohlabaugh (#74) gets beat by Miami (OH) linebacker Ty Wise (#10). Wise transferred from Indiana – not exactly a football powerhouse – during the offseason and had zero sacks in his career coming in.

Or how about this play. Again, Wohlabaugh gets beat, but this time inside. The Redhawks again send just four men, but this time run a stunt. There’s clearly miscommunication on the offensive line and defensive end Brian Ugwu (#8) comes free for the sack. Ugwu is a transfer from Rutgers and this was his first career game.

But I don’t want to give you the impression that Kentucky’s offensive line struggles were all on Wohlabaugh.

On this play, Miami (OH) blitzes a fifth man in the form of linebacker Ryan McWood (#35). Kentucky guard Jager Burton (#62) gets his initial block but doesn’t pass him off to the center to recover for the blitz. Essentially, bringing McWood overloaded the right hand side of the offensive line and Kentucky couldn’t adjust.

As this relates to Florida, Patrick Toney has no doubt seen this on film. This screams for one of his simulated pressures where either Ventrell Miller or Amari Burney come on a blitz with Brenton Cox dropping back into coverage. If that creates confusion on the Kentucky offensive line, Levis isn’t going to have a chance to get the ball out.

Finally, I have one last example here that I think exemplifies Kentucky’s offensive line struggles.

Levis throws a touchdown pass here. But this is about as difficult a touchdown pass as you’re ever going to see. Some of that is because the defensive lineman identified with the arrow immediately slips past right guard Jeremy Flax (#77) right at the snap. That causes Levis to backpedal and he has to throw an absolutely perfect pass for the score.

In all honesty, this pass should be intercepted or at least broken up. But perhaps more telling is that Kentucky has third down at the one-yard line and is up 30-13. Yes, the Redhawks have 9 men in the box and Levis has one-on-one on the outside. But the fact that they weren’t trying to run the ball in at this point would be worrisome to me if I were a Wildcat fan.

Gators Special Teams

Most of this analysis has focused on Kentucky, but Florida isn’t without flaws.

The Gators average starting field position against Utah was 81.4 yards from scoring. Compare that to Utah’s 67.3 and you start to see why the game was close even though Florida won the advanced stats battle pretty handily.

Much of that was due to multiple mistakes on special teams.

The opening drive started at the Gators 8-yard line after a holding penalty on Dante Zanders on the opening kickoff. That drive ended with the Montrell Johnson fumble, but that fumble came 64 yards into the drive. A good kickoff return, and Johnson may not have had an opportunity to fumble before scoring.

That wasn’t the only issue on kickoffs for Florida.

Florida’s second drive started with Xzavier Henderson catching the kickoff at the 2-yard line and returning it to the 18-yard line. A fair catch would have put the Gators at the 25. Two drives later, Florida was called for holding on a kickoff (Jordan Pouncey) after a Utah field goal, forcing the Gators to start at their own 11.  On the next drive, Florida scored a touchdown on Anthony Richardson’s big-time run. But the drive started at their own 21 after returning a kickoff.

Florida also had some issues on punts.

After getting pinned back deep due to the Pouncey holding penalty, Florida went three-and-out. I can’t find the clip, but the Gators’ punt team ran straight up the right hand side of the field but the punt went to the left. The result was that Utah’s punt returner got a running start and didn’t have many defenders in front of him.

Normally, you’d expect to net about 40 yards from a punt. That would’ve put Utah at the mid-field. Instead the drive started at the Florida 38-yard line and Utah was able to get into easy field goal range.

I harp on special teams for two reasons. One, field position is really, really important. The average expected points scored on drives started from Utah’s position (67.3 yards away) is 1.54 points. The average expected point scored on drives started from Florida’s position (81.4 yards away) is 0.66.

The second reason is that Kentucky has shown excellence on special teams, both against Florida last season and last week against the Redhawks. The Wildcats obviously won last year’s tilt against Florida in large part to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. That trend continued as they blocked a punt that turned into a field goal and then opened up the second half with a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.

Florida has some significant advantages in this game, but if they give up 10 points to Kentucky on special teams, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Anthony Richardson Development

Anthony Richardson was awesome against Utah and a huge reason the Gators won the game. But what seemed true while watching live is absolutely true when looking at the statistics: he barely ever threw left and he didn’t take any deep shots.

Richardson went 2-4 for 14 yards going left, with only one pass going more than 10 yards in the air. He did take one deep shot (20+ yards) down the middle, but it was incomplete on a poor pass to Dante Zanders. He was 4-6 for 40 yards in the center of the field, most of that to Ricky Piersall.

But where Richardson did his damage was to the right. There, he went 11-14 for 114 yards. Not only was his volume there, but his success was that direction as well.

Believe me, Kentucky has a more detailed chart than this, but it suggests a QB who is being given half-field reads and taking off running if the play isn’t there. Part of that is the offensive play design, as Napier’s goal is to get Richardson on the edge rolling right and then allowing him to pick from three different receivers who have flooded that side of the field.

But Kentucky is absolutely going to coach its defensive ends to stay home and force Richardson to stay in the pocket to beat them by reading the field.

Richardson ran for 9.6 yards per rush against Utah after averaging 7.9 yards per rush last season. The Gators were really successful on offense last season when Emory Jones ran for similar averages. It was when he was shut down in the running game – and Kentucky was the first time that happened last year – that the offense bogged down.

Last season, after Florida scored a touchdown to make the score 7-7, Kentucky shifted to a defensive setup with three down linemen and two linebackers lined up on the outside. They gave the Gators a few yards up the middle but didn’t allow Emory Jones to get the edge. Once they forced Jones to throw the ball, they were able to bottle up the Gators offense.

Richardson is better than Jones. But if I were predicting what Kentucky was going to do, I’d say that this strategy is likely going to be deployed again to try to frustrate him.

Prediction

There’s a reason Florida is favored in this game.

Some of it has to do with an impressive win over Utah. A lot of it has to do with confirmation that Anthony Richardson’s ceiling is sky high. But a lot of it should have to do with the Gators being at home, how Kentucky fared on the road last season and Will Levis having to carry the load.

Levis had a completion percentage of 54.2 in high school, including 56.4 percent his senior season. He wasn’t throwing down the field all that much either, as he averaged just 8.6 yards per attempt. As I’ve shown multiple times, these stats tend to say a lot about potential at the college level.

Levis was exactly who we thought he’d be at Penn State, completing 59.8 percent of his throws for 6.3 yards per attempt. That took a jump in 2021 with Kentucky as he completed 66 percent of his throws for an 8.0 yards per attempt average.

But QBs rarely take two consecutive jumps. Levis has already had his jump. What we saw last year is likely what we’re going to get again this year. That means a QB who is almost elite at home but a bottom-feeder on the road. And that’s assuming that his offensive line isn’t a sieve like it was against Miami (OH).

The main reason I picked Florida over Kentucky in the SEC East was that the teams were basically equivalent when you looked at offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA). Luck in one-score games was the differentiator.

But Florida is better this year with Richardson at QB. They may be better at running back too with Montrell Johnson and the unveiling of Trevor Etienne. They’re certainly better on defense without Todd Grantham, even if that’s still not a great unit.

Go look at Kentucky’s history under Stoops. It’s way better than it has been under just about anyone else, but he followed a 10-3 season in 2018 with an 8-5 record (3-5 SEC) and then a 5-6 record (4-6 SEC). He went 3-1 in one-score games in that 2018 season. That dropped to 2-2 in 2019 and 2-1 in 2020 but back up to 5-1 again last season.

This is an 8-win team with a QB who struggled mightily on the road. They’re about to head into the most rabid road environment in all of college football. And they have to contain perhaps the most explosive QB in all of college football without their all-everything linebacker Josh Paschal (also gone to the NFL) who was able to keep Emory Jones in check last year.

All offseason, Florida heard that they might be in danger of starting the season 0-2. Then they watched as the SEC Media placed them fourth in the conference with Kentucky second.

Believe me, they saw that. They remember what it felt like to watch their season flush down the toilet after the loss to the Wildcats last year. And the second game of the year is too early to be emotionally exhausted with one big win.

And all of that is auxiliary. The fact is that Florida is a better team than Kentucky at this stage and on Saturday, they’re going to show it.

Florida (-5.5) wins, 34-10.

Picks this year: 1-0 (1-0 ATS)