LSU faces Florida
The Gators come into their game against LSU as 2.5-point favorites, which is really interesting to me.
The reason I say that is because the Gators were 11-point favorites against Missouri last week. The game almost played out exactly as the oddsmakers thought, with the Gators coming out on top by 7. Meanwhile, LSU got waxed at home by a Tennessee team whom Florida just played and lost to by 5 on the road.
The other reason I say the line interests me is because yes, LSU is a “name” school. And yes, the Tigers are 4-2 vs. the 2-3 record that Missouri came into last week’s game with. But the statistical profiles of both sets of Tigers are almost identical, if not tilted in Missouri’s favor.
Thus, if you thought Florida would win by 11 last week, you should probably think that’s what happens again. If you thought that was way too many points for the Gators to be getting, you should probably think that way this week as well.
Because while their histories are very different, LSU and Missouri are very similar teams. That doesn’t mean Florida is going to win – they nearly coughed up the game last week to Mizzou. But what it does mean is that we should expect to see a lot of what we saw last week in this week’s game as well.
Statistical Profiles
Why do I say Missouri and LSU have very similar profiles? Well, the Bayou Bengals rank 79th in yards per play gained on offense compared to Mizzou being ranked 82nd coming into last week’s game. That includes the 93rd ranked passing offense (103rd for Mizzou) and the 83rd ranked scoring offense (25.2 points per game).
There’s actually a little bit more separation on the defensive side of the ball, but that’s actually an advantage for Missouri. LSU ranks 46th in yards per play allowed compared to 25th for Missouri and while both teams are about equivalent against the run, LSU is much worse (70th vs. 43rd) against the pass.
I profiled last week how Brady Cook was going to be the weak link for Missouri. That was because he had a QB rating of 128.4 and a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary QB stat that takes passing and running into account – of -0.51. That certainly proved out in the game as Cook put up a YAR of -1.01 and a QB rating of 121.6.
So is Jayden Daniels any better?
Well, the LSU starter has a QB rating in 2022 of 138.7 and a YAR of -0.20. That is slightly better, but if you subtract his play against cupcake FCS Southern, those numbers go down to 128.9 and -0.46, respectively. Florida’s defense has had a way the past few years of making QBs look better than their statistical profiles might indicate, but going from Cook to Daniels isn’t a giant upgrade.
In fact, if you delve into Daniels’ profile, what you see is that he was average in a loss to FSU (YAR of 0.10), great against Southern (4.20), good against New Mexico (1.55) and then bad against Mississippi State (-0.73), Auburn (-1.90) and Tennessee (-1.10).
From an offensive perspective, Florida is about to play Missouri all over again, which is a good sign for its defense.
Explosive Plays
LSU’s offense just hasn’t had any sort of explosivity this season.
The Tigers have only 22 plays that have gone for 20-plus yards all season in 438 total plays (5.0%). Comparatively, the Gators have 37 plays that have gone for 20-plus yards in only 360 plays (10.3%). Florida is actually exactly as likely to have a 30-plus yard play (18 in 360 plays, 5.0%) as LSU is to have a 20-plus yard play.
The fact that the Gators are twice as likely to have a truly explosive play is why Florida ranks 20th in yards per play gained on offense against FBS opponents. Think about that for a moment. Even if you remove the Eastern Washington game, Florida has a top-20 offense.
So why haven’t the Gators scored more points?
I banked on Florida’s offense being better this year because there was a disconnect between points scored (ranked 61st) and yards per play gained (ranked 21st) for the Gators last season. Points scored usually tracks with yards per play and so I assumed since Anthony Richardson had been dynamic in the red zone in 2021, that those two numbers would come into alignment.
But what has actually happened is that those numbers have gotten further apart. As mentioned, the Gators now rank 20th in yards per play vs. FBS opponents but rank 70th in point per game. The same disconnect that existed in 2021 exists in 2022 as well.
That’s how you end up with post game win percentages (the win expectancy if the game were played again with the same statistical profile) for Florida of 99 percent against Utah but only a 3-point win or 93 percent against Missouri despite only winning by 7.
So why is that?
Well, a big part of it is turnovers. Anthony Richardson has been a turnover machine ever since the opener against Utah. Even in that game, Montrell Johnson fumbled the ball on the opening drive and so Florida has not had a turnover-free game all season.
To be honest, that probably shouldn’t be a huge surprise. In 2021, Anthony Richardson got us all excited because with 14 explosives (20-plus yard plays) in 115 touches (12.2%). He also had 6 turnovers to go along with that as well (5.2%). This season, he now has 192 touches and has 24 explosives (12.5%) to go along with 9 turnovers (4.7%). Essentially, his mistakes from last season have carried over to this year as well, but so has his ability to generate big plays.
Compare that to LSU’s Daniels. He has only committed two turnovers all year in 252 touches (0.8%). But he also has only generated 15 explosives (6.0%). It’s also worth noting that Daniels’ average explosive goes for 26.8 yards compared to 32.3 for Richardson. That’s a big reason why LSU’s yards per play gained (79th) tracks exactly with its points per game rank (83rd).
This is also why we get “good” Anthony Richardson and “bad” Anthony Richardson and never quite know who’s going to show up. If he’s putting together explosive play after explosive play like he did against Tennessee, the Gators offense looks unstoppable. But if he’s struggling to generate big plays at all, the offense completely sputters and puts us all on edge because we know the turnovers are coming.
That shows up when we look at the statistic Success Rate (SR). SR is measured by calling a play a success if it gains 50 percent of the yards to go on first down, 70 percent of the yards to go on second down or obtain a first down on third or fourth down. Clark Brooks from SEC Stat Cat pointed this out to me on Twitter this week.
This is Week's 1-5 (still in process of charting so WK6 incomplete)
Run SR on left, Pass SR on right
The average Run SR dips about 1.5%, Pass SR stays flat in 2Hhttps://t.co/ZenJMl1lk6 pic.twitter.com/DrDPkFtJK8
— Clark Brooks (@SEC_StatCat) October 9, 2022
What you’ll notice with those numbers is that Florida is an outlier on both charts. The Gators average 6.16 yards per carry but have a success rate of 50 percent on the ground. That means they’re ranked second in the conference in yards per carry but fifth in success rate, which indicates they get a lot of explosives but aren’t as consistent.
That’s exacerbated even more when you look at the passing game. There, Florida has a success rate of 44.3, which ranks 7th in the conference yet the Gators rank 3rd in yards per pass attempt. Again, this suggests a lot of explosives but very little consistency.
LSU lacks consistency (SR of 48.95) and explosiveness (5.22 yards per rush) on the ground. However, they are extremely efficient through the air (50.93) but as shown before, don’t have many explosives (6.88 yards per attempt).
What this means is that Florida’s offense is going to have a lot more variability every time they go out there. That’s why you get a stinkbomb against Kentucky contrasted to the performance against Tennessee. It also means that you should get just about exactly what you’ve gotten before from LSU.
Defensive Performances
Florida’s defensive rankings are terrible.
The Gators are ranked 98th in yards per play allowed even though they’re 63rd in points per game allowed. That differential also is largely attributable to turnovers as that has been a main staple for getting the ball back since the Gators haven’t been able to get off the field on third down.
If we look at yards per play, what we see is that the Gators defense just hasn’t had much of an impact on the opposition at all.
The Gators’ opponents have averaged 5.74 yards per play thus far in 2022, ignoring Eastern Washington. The Gators defense has surrendered 5.88 yards per play to its opponents, meaning that we should essentially be able to predict what they’re going to surrender to LSU.
The Tigers have averaged 5.2 yards per play thus far in 2022. That means we should expect them to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 24 points.
If we do the same analysis for LSU, we see that LSU has had some impact on its opponents, surrendering more than a half-yard less per play than its opponents have gained otherwise in 2022.
This suggests that LSU should be able to stop the Gators, or at least keep them below their season average yardage. Still, even if we make that adjustment, Florida ends up projecting out to around 31 points.
Of course, the Gators have only averaged 26.6 points per game this season because of the turnovers so any reduction in that scoring due to LSU’s defense means a really, really close game.
Takeaway
This game really comes down to a question of consistency vs. explosiveness.
Florida has the most explosive offense in the SEC (1.49 expected points added on successful plays) but is ninth in the conference in success rate. Meanwhile, LSU’s defense is sixth in the conference in success rate allowed (39%) but ninth in explosive plays allowed (1.29 expected points added on successful plays).
On the other side of the ball, Florida is 13th in the conference in success rate allowed (46%) and only 7th in explosive plays allowed (1.24 expected points added). That’s really bad, but luckily LSU’s offense is middle of the pack in success rate (6th, 48%) and explosiveness (8th, 1.28).
What this says to me is that Florida is going to hit some big plays, but the question will be can they stay on the field long enough to increase their odds of hitting them. Too often this year, they haven’t been able to get key first downs and have had drives stall because of it.
On the other side of the ball, LSU’s offense just hasn’t been that explosive. The Gators defense has thus far been a sieve, but that’s been much more in the 10-19 yard range than giving up huge, back-breaking plays (Tennessee excluded). If that continues, the Tigers are going to struggle to score more than the 24 points projected up above.
Games always come down to turnovers, but this one hinges on that stat more than most. The disconnect Florida has between its offensive efficiency and its scoring efficiency is huge, and mostly attributable to Anthony Richardson being careless with the ball.
The pick-6 and interception right before the half against Kentucky cost the Gators that game. The two interceptions against USF nearly did the same. And while he was fantastic in the game against Tennessee, the fumble early in the fourth quarter turned that game into a desperate comeback attempt rather than an even matchup.
Jayden Daniels has his limitations, but he has not turned the ball over much this season. Florida was able to get Missouri’s Brady Cook to throw two picks. They were able to get Gerry Bohanon to throw a couple key interceptions when Richardson was struggling against USF. They were even able to force two fumbles against Tennessee when they had no other way to stop the Vols.
If the turnover battle is even, Florida is the better team and wins by a touchdown. If Florida ends up minus-one in the turnover calcuation, this is a pick ‘em game likely tilting the Gators way because it is in the Swamp. But if Anthony Richardson can’t take care of the ball and Florida ends up minus-2 or worse, the Gators just don’t have the ability to overcome that given their limitations on the defensive side of the ball.
Richardson has a lot of areas to improve. But the main area he has to improve is that he has to stop turning the ball over. Can he do that against the Tigers? Or can the Gators defense continue forcing turnovers like it has all year to even things out?
I suspect Richardson has at least one turnover, but I think the Gators defense will force one as well.
Florida (-2.5) wins, 31-24.
Picks this year: 4-1, 2-3 ATS