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Knudsen’s Knotes
Gators whoop Texas NIL; UGA/LSU notch big wins

Posted by Nick Knudsen on November 10, 2022
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Gators deal latest blow to Texas NIL

Texas A&M has been the talk of the post-NIL college football world since it landed the top-recruiting class in the 2022 cycle.

The Aggies reeled in eight five-star prospects (five more than the number of wins they have at this point in the season) from Texas (4), Florida (2), Georgia (1), and Tennessee (1).

How have these five-star Aggies fared so far?

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It’s rare for a true freshman to make a major impact – even highly touted true freshman such as the eight above – but in the era of NIL, it may be more critical for these top-end talents to get off to a fast start to avoid the temptation of hopping into the transfer portal where the next school would welcome them with open arms.

Aside from WR Evan Stewart, none of the other five-star wonders have had a major impact this season. Defensive back Denver Harris and receiver Chris Marshall made national headlines after they were suspended  indefinitely due to a postgame locker room incident vs South Carolina.

A 3-6 start to a season that had been loaded with expectations almost guarantees major changes will be in store for Texas A&M this offseason. How many of these recruits will stay?

It’ll be an interesting situation to watch unfold over the coming months, particularly when you compare it to the comparatively conservative approach that has been adopted by Florida when it comes to NIL and recruiting.

We all have opinions about how things should play out on the recruiting trail, but perhaps there’s something to Billy Napier’s approach in not going all in for just a handful of players.

I write for Read & Reaction, so I am fully aware of the impact these five-star additions can have on the championship aspirations of a program as well as the impending reprimand coming from Will Miles for even suggesting it, but I’m simply asking: did Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies sacrifice something in the way of continuity by being the first to do a cannonball in the NIL pool? Was it too much disruption at once? (Ed. Note: Everyone should reprimand Nick, not just me.)

Don’t get me wrong. I’d sign up for eight five-star recruits signing with Florida tomorrow. Adding great football players to the roster is always a plus on paper, but Texas A&M may soon become the overall/milkman suit wearing posterchild for the harsh new lesson of the NIL era: just because you can do it, doesn’t mean you should do it.

The methodical nature of Napier stresses that players are committed to the vision and the plan. That type of approach will vet players to ensure program fit. It may mean passing on talented players or not joining in on the NIL cannonballs with schools like Texas A&M.

An offseason full of fever-dreams surrounding a five-star studded recruiting class has not quite played out  that way for Billy Napier’s bump class. What can be seen as an unwillingness to do what it takes to land the five-star talent needed to put the Gators back into title contention could also been seen as a slower, more deliberate approach to that may end up paying off in the long run.

The original intent of NIL was to give players the ability to pursue deals pertaining to their own Name, Image, & Likeness. It is not designed to be used as a tool to induce a commitment (“come to this school and you’ll get X”). However, in a new world that is high on uncertainties and low on enforcement, those who are most comfortable in the gray have seemingly gained the biggest edge early on.

Florida has lost its share of recruiting battles this year. The five-star defensive backfield we had dreamed of in the spring (Tony Mitchell, AJ Harris, and Cormani McClain) went to Alabama, Georgia and Miami.

It’s been frustrating being on the more conservative side in this brave new world. Personally, I would rather be on the aggressive side of this equation stacking five-star commits in Orange & Blue. However, it’s worth questioning the “all-in” nature of the A&M approach. Despite bringing in an Alabama/Georgia level class this past cycle, the Aggies are as far as they have ever been from the school’s first SEC title.

The overnight build might not be the right move.

It’s the exciting move, but just because you can do it, doesn’t mean you should do it.

For what Florida has lacked in “dropping bags,” the Gators are doing a good job of promoting their current players in the NIL arena.

Anthony Richardson, a quarterback who has yet to scrape the surface of his potential, has inked deals with companies such as Gatorade and is going to pull in more than $1 million worth of NIL deals.

Those headlines will matter on the recruiting trail.

Once the new car smell wears off of the NIL world and enough rich folks have seen their favorite five-star high school recruit screw up and get suspended indefinitely, the funding should eventually shift to the players who are on-campus and producing for their school. If the free market doesn’t fix the issue, perhaps leagues will get involved and cap NIL deals for incoming freshman.

Who knows what’s next?

The only thing we can be sure of is that the situation will continue to evolve.

Billy Napier is deliberate. Behind every action, there is a reason. There are no doubt many factors behind the Gators’ strategic ploy to not engage in all out bidding wars once they feel the price has exceeded what they are willing to pay. While it may be frustrating in the moment, Napier may not need to look further than Texas A&M to justify his steady approach.

HEADLINERS

Georgia 27, Tennessee 6
The Dawgs kept the explosive Tennessee offense out of the end zone until deep into the fourth quarter. Georgia sprinted out to an early 21-3 in the first half and never looked back. UGA QB Stetson Bennett played a clean game throwing for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead Georgia to within one win of clinching the SEC East title. The loss may have doomed Tennessee’s SEC hopes but may get another shot at Georgia in the playoffs.

LSU 32, Alabama 31
LSU head coach Brian Kelly earned his stripes with a gutsy call to go for two on Saturday night in Death Valley. The Tide had not lost at LSU since 2010. A low scoring first half turned into offensive fireworks which featured five scores in five possessions (not including the final possession where LSU killed the clock) at the end of regulation. Bama converted on two third downs to strike first in overtime to take a 31-24 lead. LSU QB Jayden Daniels scored on the first play – a 25 yard run – and, after Kelly opted for two, hit TE Mason Taylor in the flat for the two-point conversion to give the Tigers a one-point win over the Crimson Tide. LSU controls its destiny in the SEC West and will go to Atlanta if they can beat Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Notre Dame 35, Clemson 14
The offensively challenged Tigers were finally exposed and the nation will be spared of watching a talented team with an inability to find the end zone come playoff time. Only two Clemson drives exceeded 7 total plays and both instances occurred on the final two drives of the game with Notre Dame up by 28 points. The Irish jumped out to a quick lead thanks to a blocked punt for a touchdown and later scored on a 96-yard pick six. Since opening the season 0-2, Notre Dame has reeled off six out of seven games with the a single two-point loss to Stanford in the mix and can also play spoiler to USC in two weeks.

AROUND THE COUNTRY

Florida State 45, Miami 3
FSU scored four first half touchdowns to jump out to a 28-3 lead. The Noles used a balanced offensive effort to torch Miami for 454 total yards (225 pass/229 rush). Miami managed only 62 yards through the air and the Canes are now in danger of missing a bowl game in year one of the Mario Cristobal era.

TCU 34, Texas Tech 24
Derius Davis returned the opening punt of the game for an 82 yard touchdown. TCU RB Kendre Miller led the way with 158 yards rushing and one touchdown. The Horned Frogs improved to 9-0 and secured the #4 ranking in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

Ohio State 21, Northwestern 7
Neither team hit the 100-yard mark passing, but Ohio State managed to piece together a couple of drives in the second half to complete an ugly, survive but advance type of win.

Michigan 52, Rutgers 17
The Wolverines trailed 17-14 at half before blitzing the Scarlet Knights 38-0 down the stretch. Rutgers was held to 14 yards rushing. Two home dates with Nebraska and Illinois stand between an unbeaten Michigan heading into Columbus.

Texas 34, Kansas State 27
RB Bijan Robinson ran for 209 yards and a touchdown as the Longhorns sprinted out to a 31-10 lead. K-State clawed their way back in the second half and cut the lead to one score. It took one last stand by the Texas defense, a hit on QB Adrian Martinez which forced a fumble, to seal a Longhorns win along with a bowl bid.

Oregon 49, Colorado 10
The Ducks slowly beat down an overmatched Colorado to run their win stereos to eight games. While I’m happy for Bo Nix and am impressed with his numbers, I think it’s a bit much to include his name in the Heisman race. We can acknowledge Nix is having a good year without jumping all the way to Heisman talk, right? Oregon finishes with a tough stretch: Washington, Utah, and a feisty Oregon State.

USC 41, Cal 35
California made it look interesting late, but USC jumped out to a 27-7 lead behind the arm of QB Caleb Williams, who threw for 360 yards and 4 touchdowns. USC has a great chance to make some noise in the playoff race with a season ending slate of Top-10 UCLA and a ranked Notre Dame team fresh off of a win over Clemson after this week’s game against Colorado.

Michigan State 23, Illinois 15
The Spartans defense turned the Illini over on downs after Illinois was set up with 1st & Goal at the MSU 3-yard line in the first five minutes of the game. Michigan State has now won 2 of 3 after a disappointing start to the season to get to two wins away from bowl eligibility.

North Carolina 31, Virginia 28
Three straight touchdowns coming out of the locker room at halftime allowed UNC to pull away and maintain a perfect 5-0 record in the ACC. Tar Heels QB Drake Maye added two more touchdown passes to his Heisman candidacy. UNC is a quiet playoff contender.

NC State 30, Wake Forest 21
Wake Forest cut their turnovers down from 8 to 3 this week, but those errors provided enough cushion for NC State to pull out a win. The Wolfpack also held the Demon Deacons to only 17 yards rushing. Wake drops its second in a row – can they play spoiler to in-state rival North Carolina this week?

Kansas 37, Oklahoma State 16
A year after a 55-3 beating at the hands of Oklahoma State, the Jayhawks ran for 351 yards and took advantage of four turnovers to jump out to a 31-7 lead early in the third quarter. Kansas improves to 6-3 and is bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.

Tulane 27, Tulsa 13
The Green Wave rolled to 357 yards rushing on 53 attempts to maintain the top spot in the American Athletic Conference.

UCF 35, Memphis 28
Central Florida gets the win to maintain the second spot in the AAC title game. The Knights’ interception was one of the better plays from Week 11.

AROUND THE SEC

Mississippi State 39, Auburn 33
Trailing 24-6, Cadillac Williams nearly pulled off a miracle comeback in the second half, going up 33-30 late. However, Mississippi State went down the field and kicked a field goal to send the game into OT. Auburn missed a field goal to open overtime and MSU punched it in to seal the deal to avoid the collapse.

Liberty 21, Arkansas 19
Hugh Freeze picked a good week to pull an upset against a SEC team. Auburn has been rumored as a potential destination for the former Ole Miss coach and a win against Sam Pittman’s Hogs won’t hurt his chances in the interview process. Interestingly enough, Arkansas shut out Liberty in the second half after falling behind 21-3 at half. The Razorbacks scored with just over a minute left to cut the Flames’ lead to 21-19, but Liberty rose up to stop QB KJ Jefferson’s two-point conversion run up the middle just shy of the goal line to secure the upset.

South Carolina 38, Vanderbilt 27
A combined 65 points and 946 yards filled with big plays was decided by the turnover margin. Two picks and two fumbles were too much to overcome for a Commodores squad which continues to show improvement despite a slew of losses.

Kentucky 21, Missouri 17
The Wildcats used a 6 play, 58 yard drive, capped off by a 22-yard TD pass from QB Will Levis to WR Dane Key, to sneak by Mizzou. The win ensures Mark Stoops of a seventh consecutive bowl bid.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

The second College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday night:

  1. Georgia
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. TCU
  5. Tennessee
  6. Oregon
  7. LSU
  8. Southern Cal
  9. Alabama
  10. Clemson
  11. Ole Miss
  12. UCLA

Here is the playoff field as I see it:

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1. Georgia – UGA retained its crown with an epic defense performance against a loaded Vols team. Sneaky tough late season trip to Starkville ahead.
2. Ohio State – Ugly, bad-weather game at Northwestern won’t do much to help or hurt the OSU resume. A win is a win. Indiana next.
3. Michigan – Heading toward a showdown with Ohio State in two weeks.
4. TCU – Frogs deserve this spot. Perfection will be required to make the field.

Since we’re headed toward a 12-team playoff in a few years and some folks are not thrilled about it, I wanted to put together a hypothetical 12-team playoff field with the first round playing out in mid-December at the homefield of the higher ranked team. For folks against playoff expansion, these are the games that you’re saying you don’t want to see:

(12) North Carolina @ (5) Oregon
(11) Alabama @ (6) Southern Cal
(10) Ole Miss @ (7) Tennessee
(9) Clemson @ (8) LSU

KEY MATCHUPS

Friday 11/11
8:00 PM ET ESPN East Carolina @ Cincinnati
9:00 PM ET FS1 Colorado @ Southern Cal

Saturday 11/12
12:00 PM ET CBS Missouri at Tennessee
12:00 PM ET FOX Indiana at Ohio State
12:09 PM ET ESPN LSU @ Arkansas
3:30 PM ET ESPN Louisville @ Clemson
3:30 PM ET ABC Nebraska @ Michigan
3:30 PM ET CBS Alabama @ Ole Miss
3:30 PM ET ESPN2 Central Florida @ Tulane
4:00 PM ET SECN South Carolina @ Florida
7:00 PM ET ESPN Georgia @ Mississippi State
7:00 PM ET FOX Washington @ Oregon
7:00 PM ET FS1 Kansas State @ Baylor
7:30 PM ET ABC TCU @ Texas
7:30 PM ET ESPN North Carolina @ Wake Forest
7:30 PM ET SECN Texas A&M @ Auburn
8:00 PM ET ACCN Florida State @ Syracuse
10;00 PM ET ESPN Stanford @ Utah
10:30 PM ET FOX Arizona @ UCLA

FLORIDA BOWL PROJECTIONS

HEISMAN BALLOT

  1. QB Caleb Williams, USC
    2,742 yards passing, 28 TD, 1 INT
  2. QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
    2,964 yards passing, 31 TD, 3 INT
  3. QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
    2,533 yards passing, 21 TD, 2 INT
  4. QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
    2,453 yards passing, 29 TD, 4 INT
  5. QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
    3,232 yards passing, 23 TD, 5 INT
  6. RB Blake Corum, Michigan
    1,187 yards rushing, 15 TD
  7. RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
    1,129 yards rushing, 12 TD
  8. QB Max Duggan, TCU
    2,407 yards passing, 24 TD, 2 INT
  9. RB Chase Brown, Illinois
    1,344 yards rushing, 5 TD
  10. RB Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota
    1,083 yards rushing, 15 TD

Nick Knudsen

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1 Comment

  1. Devere

    I’m with you Nick. As frustrating as it is to lose recruits to Miami of all places, I think the long game is the right approach. How do you manage a locker room of 18-22 year olds when it’s out there that a newbie, who’s done squat on the field, is pulling in big bucks? I wonder if that’s at the heart of A&M’s travails. A middle ground will emerge through the market or otherwise; until it does, we need to behave like it’s already here.

    November 12, 2022

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