Anthony Richardson declares for the NFL Draft

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Anthony Richardson has always held a special place in my heart as a fan.

Perhaps it’s because of where he comes from. He played high school ball in Gainesville, and we’re reminded of that every time the network shows his little brother in the stands. No, he didn’t live in Gainesville his entire life, but the home-grown talent story certainly pulls at your heartstrings.

Perhaps it’s because of who he’s shown to be as a person. Multiple times after losses this year – including the Kentucky loss where Richardson himself was a main reason Florida lost – I read stories of AR taking the time to hang with kids outside the stadium afterwards. And it had to be eating him up inside in 2021 to be sitting behind Emory Jones, but he was nothing but supportive of Jones publicly.

Folks as talented as he is aren’t always that grounded.

But let’s be honest, the biggest reason he’s held that special place in my heart is because of his talent level and what could mean for the Gators football team.

Our introduction to Richardson came in the Cotton Bowl debacle against Oklahoma, where we were grasping for anything to offset the embarrassment of that game. Richardson gave us a glimpse of the future with runs for 8, 6 and 28 yards, followed by a 27-yard TD strike to receiver Jordan Pouncey.

Then, he put on what we thought was a show against Florida Atlantic in Florida’s opener in 2021 going 3-8 for 40 yards but rushing 7 times for 160 yards. Then he really put on a show against USF, going 3-3 for 152 yards and running 4 times for 115 yards in extremely limited snaps. His ceiling had been established.

I was highly critical of Dan Mullen for not starting Richardson at that point during the 2021 season. That looked to be a solid criticism of Mullen after Richardson came in after an Emory Jones Pick-6 put Florida behind 28-13 to LSU on the opening drive of the second half. Until he threw an interception on the last drive, Richardson was unstoppable.

That all came crashing down two weeks later against Georgia in Richardson’s first start, where he turned the ball over three times in the last 2:16 of the first half and turned a manageable 3-0 Georgia lead into an insurmountable 24-0 one.

And those two halves, back-to-back, is really a good summary of the Anthony Richardson experience in Gainesville.

He was the master of the avalanche, in one way or the other. Either things were going right and he – and the offense – absolutely could not stop rolling. Or things were going wrong and the level of ineptness that the offense showed was simply Nussmeierian.

That avalanche could come in-game or mid-game. You could get a phenomenal start against Utah with game-winning drives and then a complete dud against Kentucky, where the last three quarters produced an 11-26 line for a 2.8 yards per attempt average and two backbreaking interceptions.

You could get a first half against Florida State where the offense looked unstoppable and Richardson started 5-7 for 151 yards and 3 TDs that would morph into a stretch of 10 straight incompletions that stalled a field goal drive and then produced three straight three-and-outs.

My proprietary statistic – Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – says two things about Richardson. First, when he was good, he was very good. But when he was bad, he was really bad. And other than two consecutive poor performances against Kentucky and USF, he oscillated between good and bad all year long.

You could see the same thing on film, where Richardson was often making the right read but then overthrowing it badly. Or he made a spectacular play nobody else could make (i.e. his TD throw to Keon Zipperer against Tennessee) and turned Florida’s offense into something special.

I don’t blame Richardson for leaving for the NFL. When that’s been your dream since you were a little kid and you have the opportunity to achieve it, who am I to say it’s the wrong decision?

Obviously this decision has a monetary component associated with it, but it’s not a simple one no matter which side you come down on.

NIL has mitigated the monetary risk that these players are taking somewhat, but it hasn’t eliminated it. Patrick Mahomes signed a 4-year, $16.4 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus upon being drafted in the first round by the Chiefs. Most people look at that and then the deal Richardson might get if he dropped into the second or third round and say that’s what he’s potentially giving up by leaving early.

But the thing you miss in that analysis is that two years later, Mahomes was signing a record 10-year, $450 million deal after taking over for Alex Smith and becoming a star. Because it’s the second contract that generates the real dollars for a QB, there is benefit to getting to that earlier. There’s also a benefit to avoiding an injury you might have received in college that would prevent you from getting to the second contract.

The other thing is that while folks often talk about the benefit of coming back for a year to develop, what they neglect to mention is the risk. What if Richardson comes back for the 2023 season and is just as inconsistent? Then the narrative is no longer that he is a toolsy player who needs seasoning. It’s that he’s an inconsistent player who failed to develop. That’s particularly true since Richardson committed to play for Dan Mullen and Mullen and Napier’s systems are significantly different.

Think of it this way: we know way more about Richardson now than we did after those games against FAU and USF last year. I would’ve sworn he was going to be a Michael Vick-level star at Florida and could carry the team to a championship after that USF game. I don’t feel that way after this season, and the risk is that if it continued into next season, scouts would feel that way about his NFL prospects as well.

But perhaps more than anything, I suspect Richardson leaving has more to do with accomplishing his dreams.

My main sport growing up was baseball. I didn’t dream of playing college ball or in the minor leagues. I didn’t dream of playing in the Olympics or playing in the Japanese leagues. I wanted to play in the World Series.

Similarly, I imagine that most young football players these days don’t dream about playing in the College Football Playoff. Sure, they may see that as a stepping stone to where they want to get, but winning a championship likely plays second fiddle to getting to the next level. That’s because the next level is where they can actually try to accomplish their dream: winning the Super Bowl.

Part of me is sad because we won’t get to see what a consistent Anthony Richardson could have provided the Gators. Coming back next year and leading the Gators to a magical season would have made him a Gainesville legend in the same way that Tim Tebow or the “04s” (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green) became legends. He’s passing that up by leaving now.

But I completely understand and I’m truly happy for him. If I were offered millions of dollars to pursue my dream at 11:58 am, I’d have my two-weeks notice in before noon. Not a lot of us get to live our dream.

I’m not sure if Richardson is going to be able to accomplish what he desires as a starting QB in the NFL. He’s going to wow scouts at the combine and is absolutely going to get drafted high.

If he fails, I’ll admire him for having the bravery to chase his dream. And if he succeeds, I’ll be cheering every step of the way. Because if writing for this site has proven anything to me over the past five years, it’s that Florida football isn’t a program, it’s a family.

Go be great, 15.