Last Call: Preseason Magazine

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Florida Gators recruiting picks up in a big way

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Ever since I started Read & Reaction, every June it seems like I’ve written an article about Florida recruiting and the fan base panicking. My message has always been the same: don’t panic now, and we’ll see where we are on September 1.

After a flurry of commits over the past week to Billy Napier’s program, it’s absolutely refreshing this June to be writing about recruiting in a positive light. Things are definitely on the upswing and Napier is definitely hitting some benchmarks that his predecessors have not. But to be fair, I think the message is the same: let’s see where we are September 1.

I don’t say this because I’m pessimistic about where things are going. Quite the opposite. The trends for the 2024 class have been positive for a long time now.

Instead, I say it because Napier now has to finish. Everyone who has committed to Florida needs to sign, and while the quality of player coming to Gainesville has gone way up in 2024 compared to the previous decade, there is still a small level to go to get to the standard set by Alabama and Georgia.

So goes life in the SEC, which is only about to get harder with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma. But there’s no doubt that Napier is now setting the foundation for a Florida renaissance and that shows up in the numbers, even though we’re only in June.

June 2024 vs. June 2023

I think it’s helpful to look at where the Florida recruiting profile is this year vs. where it was in June of last year.

This time last year, the Gators had 8 commits, four of whom were 4-star recruits and four of whom were 3-stars. Only two players were ranked in 247Sports top-300 and the average player rating was 88.9. Napier’s class then took a sizable leap, as some of the players who were committed early chose to go elsewhere, but the class ended up with 11 top-300 players, only two 3-stars, 18 4-stars and an average player rating of 92.0.

The class ended up ranked in the teens, but supplied a lot of very solid talent with zero truly elite, 5-star talent.

This year is very different. Not only does Napier already have nine top-300 players in the fold, but his average player rating of 92.6 is higher than he finished last season. He already has two 5-star players in the fold, and given that recent commit Jamonta Waller has not been ranked by On3 yet, I suspect he’ll end up either as a composite 5-star soon or just missing out while being ranked in the 30s.

By 247 point totals, Florida has the third ranked class in the country. By average player rating, the Gators have the fourth ranked class. That is a far cry from last year when the Gators had a lower average player rating than FSU, Tennessee, and LSU in addition to Georgia and Alabama.

Of course, the Gators ended up beating out the Vols and Noles last year for average player quality as Napier saw a significant uptick right around August, so these numbers are definitely still fluid at this stage.

Napier vs. his predecessors

I’ve taken to dividing recruiting into three zones slightly different than the 5-star, 4-star, 3-star divisions you normally see. The reasoning is that top-60 players deliver NFL Draft value at a far higher rate than players ranked 61-200 but players ranked 201-600 tend to deliver about the same NFL Draft value. That means that a 3-star recruit ranked 539th is probably about as valuable as one ranked 343rd, but that a 4-star recruit ranked 41st is way more valuable than one ranked 173rd.

This also means we can predict how many players should be drafted from a particular class not based on just the average player quality but on each specific ranking within the class. The logic is that a class with five 5-stars and filled out with 3-stars ranked in the 800s probably outperforms a class made up of eight 4-stars ranked between 100-200 and then a bunch of 3-stars ranked 500-800.

So what does that mean for Napier compared to the coaches who’ve come before him?

Napier recruiting vs Meyer, Mullen, McElwain and Muschamp.

The table above shows the numbers for the first three recruiting classes of the last five Gators head coaches, sorted by the draft rate (i.e. the number of players expected to be drafted per recruit).

As expected, Urban Meyer dominates this list, as his 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes are the top-two classes amongst the coaches. But if we look at the third best class, at least so far it’s Napier’s 2024 class, tied with Meyer at 0.24 expected players drafted. If Napier can seal the deal and keep up the player quality he currently has, he’s on the verge of bringing in an Urban Meyer-like recruiting class.

Of course, Napier needs that because his 2022 transition class is near the bottom of this list. That class already has produced fruit with the Freshman All-SEC seasons of Trevor Etienne and Shemar James, but more players will need to step up to offset the lack of top-end talent.

But there’s one other thing I want to point out in the chart when it comes to Napier: movement.

Napier’s transition class is ranked 14th overall. His bump class jumped to 6th and now his third class is up to 3rd. Hit on guys like Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State WR commit, 3rd overall ranked player) or Colin Simmons (Edge rusher, 6th overall ranked player) and this class rises even further.

That growth hasn’t happened with any coach since Meyer. Muschamp started at 4th, then dropped to 5th and 7th in subsequent years. McElwain did jump from dead last in 2015 to 11th in 2016, but then fell back to 12th in 2017. Mullen did the same dance, jumping from 13th in 2018 to 8th in 2019 and then back down to 10th in 2020.

Napier started at 14th, right in between McElwain and Mullen. Last year, he finished 6th, pulling into the bottom end of Muschamp’s metrics. This season, he’s on the bottom end of Meyer if he can keep it up.

Napier vs. his competition

Of course, Napier isn’t competing with Dan Mullen, Urban Meyer or Will Muschamp. He’s competing with Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. Those are the programs you point to when you look at elite recruiting and playoff appearances and so that’s where you want to be (note: Clemson is weird because of where it sits in the ACC and so I don’t think in this case is a good comparison).

But we can compare expected draft rate for those programs against Florida to see where the Gators stand.

The above chart shows two things. First, Dan Mullen got fired because his recruiting was stagnant and below expectations for a program like Florida. At an expected draft rate of 0.17 over a four year cycle (25 commits per year, so 100 total commits), you would expect 17 players to get drafted. That’s a good team, but it also means that there are five players on the field at any given time who are not NFL quality.

But Mullen only signed an average of 21.5 players over his four years in Gainesville, dropping that expectation to 14.6. Compare that to Alabama, who signed an average of 25 players per year during Mullen’s recruiting era (2018-2021). With the increased expected draft rate of 0.29 over that period, we would expect 29 draftable players to come out of those classes.

If it seems like Alabama has a NFL-quality player step in whenever anyone gets hurt or transfers, it’s because they do.

The second thing that the chart shows is that Napier took a significant step back in 2022 but has now accelerated his recruiting to the bottom end of his competitors. That acceleration should be a reason for both hope and patience, as it indicates things are headed in the right direction, especially if the trend continues in 2025.

Takeaway

You never want to judge a recruiting class by one recruit, or even one week. There is clearly momentum when it comes to the 2024 recruiting class, but just ask Texas A&M how one good recruiting year turns out immediately afterwards.

I’ve been critical of Napier’s recruiting. To be honest, he’s deserved it given the metrics that he was putting up over the past two seasons. And let’s not forget that the jewel of the 2025 class – QB commit Austin Simmons – just flipped to Ole Miss while reclassifying to the 2023 class. That leaves the Gators with zero commits in 2025 while Georgia already has four 5-stars in the fold and an average player rating of 97.98 for its six commits.

But we also shouldn’t gloss over the progress that we’re seeing. Not only does the 2024 class show significant progress in point ranking, average player ranking, top-60 players and 5-star players, but it also adds a 5-star QB who is going to be the face of the program Napier is trying to build. Those are not small building blocks and this class is going to eventually deliver results.

But that’s also where we need to see these numbers and preach patience. Given Graham Mertz’ history and the exodus of players from the previous regime since Napier took over, 2023 may be rough. The schedule in 2024 is brutal with a star QB, let alone a true freshman who is going to be cast as the savior.

Just based on the numbers, the 2024 class will deliver. It’s great that the chart in the previous section shows this class competing with the big boys. But it also shows a significant talent deficit compared to those same big boys in both 2022 and 2023.

So get excited. Declare that the Gators are on the way back. And hope that Napier can close the deal on this 2024 class and start bringing in top-tier talent for 2025. Because I’m not sure you’re going to be able to judge his abilities based on the on-field product in 2023 or 2024.

But based on the trajectory of recruiting thus far, the Gators should be in the playoff come 2025.