Editor’s Note: This is the first of a series called Toss Up, because in our preseason magazine (order a digital copy here), Nick and I picked whether Florida should be expected to win, lose or if it would be a toss up. This series will look at why some of those games are toss-ups (especially when the Gators are being picked to be so bad by man this season) and an acknowledgment that while the Gators have questions, so do a lot of their opponents.
Toss Up: Is QB really a disadvantage versus Utah?
On the surface, Cameron Rising versus Graham Mertz seems like a huge mismatch in Utah’s favor.
After all, Rising was being mentioned for the Heisman Trophy last season and led a team that won the Pac-12 last season. Mertz has been underwhelming at Wisconsin and has to learn a brand new system.
But Rising also suffered a knee injury – later confirmed to be a torn ACL – against Penn State in the Rose Bowl. And while Rising seemed confident at Pac-12 media days that he would be ready, his coach Kyle Whittingham said the quarterback is “going to come right down to the wire” when speaking about his ability to be ready to play against Florida.
So it’s not even clear that Rising will play. But that leads to a different question: if he is cleared to play, will he be the same player?
In 2021 and 2022, Rising ran for 964 yards on 151 carries (6.4 yards per attempt). For comparison, Anthony Richardson averaged 6.3 yards per rush last season. If your memory of Utah last year in the Swamp is Rising escaping pressure and then running for a first down, that’s a fairly accurate recollection as Rising ran for 91 yards on 7 carries in the game (13 yards per rush). Given the way the Gators finished the season with FSU’s Jordan Travis doing the same thing, that clearly would be a major weapon for Utah.
But will Rising be ready to do that? And will Utah be ready to put him in harm’s way in his first game back?
It’s hard to find data for college players, but studies of NFL players suggest that even for players who come back from ACL injuries, there is a significant drop-off in production. Quarterbacks tend to show the least drop-off, but there is a drop-off. But very few NFL players are reliant on their running ability like Rising, and despite some of the Heisman hype, Rising hasn’t been spectacular through the air.
Cam Rising 2021 and 2022 throwing stats. (Read & Reaction/Will Miles)
Rising has been bad, but he definitely has not been elite either. Last season, the average rating of QBs who averaged at least 14 throws per game was 140. For that stat, Rising ranked 32nd in the country, seven spots behind Kentucky’s Will Levis. Above average, but not great (note: Hendon Hooker was at 176.
Yet still, Rising was incredibly effective, with a Yards Above Replacement (YAR) value – my proprietary stat that combines a QBs passing and rushing ability – of 0.84. This is in the Jake Fromm-range of YAR values, indicating good-but-not-great QB play.
But two things to note: first, Rising’s 2022 season was almost an exact carbon copy of his 2021 season. His QB rating was 2.3 points higher and his completion percentage was up a tick, but his yards per completion and rushing statistics were virtually identical. His YAR of 0.97 was a little bit higher, owing to a larger percentage of his plays being on the ground and his efficiency there.
But this is where the analysis starts to get interesting. That same NFL study I cited earlier shows that while QBs show the lowest drop off in performance after an ACL injury, running backs – followed by defensive linemen and linebackers – show the largest. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that those are positions where acceleration is critical.
So what happens to Rising’s numbers if we take away his running ability? Well, if he just ends up as an average rusher (2.6 yards per rush was the average for QBs in 2022), his 2022 YAR drops to 0.27, or just barely above average.
But let’s say he ends up stationary, especially early on, because of the ACL injury and approximates the mobility of say, Kyle Trask (63 rushes for 8 yards in 2021). Now Rising’s YAR drops to -0.07, or below average.
That doesn’t guarantee a Gators win. Graham Mertz had a YAR of -0.58 last season with Wisconsin. However, we all know there is a correlation between QB play and winning, and I think the assumption is that Utah has a major advantage at that spot in the opener.
If Rising is completely healthy, I think that’s the case. But you don’t end up completely healthy after an ACL injury after 8 months. He’s going to be limited somewhat. And because of that limitation, it evens the scales much more closely at the QB position than people are going to acknowledge.
Right now, FanDuel has the Gators as 7.5-point underdogs to the Utes. If you’re making that bet because of a difference in QBs, I think you might want to reconsider.