Florida vs. Utah Game Preview

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On Thursday, the 2023 season finally gets underway as Florida takes on Utah.

It feels like we’ve been talking about this opener for a really long time. That’s probably because Florida rarely has games like this, especially to open a season. It’s also because this one will have everyone’s attention as the first big-time game of the college football season. And it’s also because we’re going to find out a lot about these Gators right off the bat with games against the Utes and the Tennessee Vols sandwiching a game against McNeese State.

With the start of the 2023 season comes the start of the Graham Mertz era at Florida as well. I’m not sure any of us are sold on Mertz as the starter after what he put on tape at Wisconsin, but Billy Napier named him the starter early in fall camp and all news out of Gainesville is that he clearly separated himself in that battle.

Both teams have dynamic running games coming into this one.

Utah has Micah Bernard and Ja’Quindon Jackson back there, the latter of whom ripped off 57 percent of his yards in the last three games of the season (10 for 117 vs. Colorado, 13 for 105 vs. USC and 13 for 81 vs. Penn State) and averaged 6.8 yards per rush. But Florida – despite the season-ending injury to Cam Carroll – boasts Montrell Johnson (155 rushes, 5.4 yards per rush) and true sophomore Trevor Etienne (118 rushes, 6.1 yards per rush).

In many ways that may mean that the running games for each will cancel each other out. That means the game comes down to two things: defense and quarterback play.

Defense

If you’re reading this, I don’t have to tell you that Florida’s defense was bad last year. We started the season comparing it to some of the worst defenses in Florida history and pretty much had to admit it was the worst by the end of the season.

An inability to stop the running game (98th in yards per rush allowed) was compounded by an inability to stop the ball through the air (103rd in yards per pass allowed). No matter what the defense – or since-departed Patrick Toney tried – nothing seemed to work.

If we just look at points allowed, this seems like a major area of separation for Utah. After all, Utah ranked 29th in points per game allowed (22.5) compared to 87th (29.8) for Florida. But if we peel the onion back a little bit more, the separation starts to close quite a bit.

Utah actually ranked 90th in yards per play allowed in 2022 despite giving up the 29th most points. That’s a separation that almost never happens and suggests Utah got really fortunate in a bunch of games.

Indeed, if we look at the per-play yardage allowed in every game the Utes played, in only two did they give up more points than their per-play yardage would have predicted. For example, against Oregon State they gave up 16 points, but allowed 6.2 yards per play, a number that would have predicted 33.3 points. Against Arizona, they surrendered 20 points, when the 7.0 yards per play they allowed would have predicted 41.7.

What happened in those two games? Turnovers.

Against the Beavers, Utah had four interceptions, two of which occurred deep in their own red zone. Against the Wildcats, Utah caused seven fumbles and recovered four, two in their own territory. And against Florida, the Montrell Johnson fumble on the opening drive in Utah territory not only stopped Florida’s momentum, but enabled the Utes to jump quickly on top of the Gators after a short touchdown drive.

Over the course of a season, those sorts of things happen. And Utah was 14th in the country in total turnovers generated, meaning they were pretty good at that. But two things to consider: first, 12 of the 24 total turnovers caused by Utah’s defense were fumbles, which are notorious for not being reproducible season-to-season. Utah only had six fumble recoveries in both 2020 and 2021, indicating that last season was the anomaly.

Second, the timing of the interceptions and fumbles – happening in its own territory – is not something that is likely reproducible either. That doesn’t mean it will never happen, but you can’t really control when a QB makes a bad decision or when a running back will leave the ball exposed. Utah was really fortunate last year when those things happened.

Interestingly, Utah’s 2022 defensive success rate (a play is considered successful for the offense if it is a first down and at least 50% of the yards to go are attained, if it is second down and at least 70% of the yards to go are attained or it is a 3rd or 4th down converted for a first down, so lower is better) was 38 percent compared to Florida’s 45 percent.

So how did Utah’s offense average similar yardage surrendered per play compared to Florida? Explosive plays.

The chart above details the FBS ranking for the Florida and Utah defenses when it comes to giving up plays of 10-plus, 20-plus, 30-plus and 40-plus yards. Utah was much better than Florida at keeping plays under 10 yards (hence, the higher success rate). But when the big plays hit, the plays were much more severe against the Utes. Just rewatching the Rose Bowl against Penn State gives a bunch of examples.

This is a third-and-2 deep in Penn State territory with the score tied at 14. The deep safety (R.J. Hubert, #11) comes down to the line of scrimmage. He’s unsure of what to do and is looking at the sideline for help when the ball is snapped. He then runs to his right and around, leaving the middle of the field wide open.

This is either a major schematic error or Hubert not knowing what to do. Utah was in man-to-man defense across the board. To bring Hubert on a blitz means they have absolutely nobody deep to make a tackle. The result is that when Hubert runs himself out of the play and Penn State gets past the initial line, there’s nobody there to make a tackle. I suspect this is probably a mental error by Huber, but it could just be Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley being ultra-aggressive.

The next big play Utah surrendered was definitely the players’ faults.

Utah has the right defense dialed up for this third-and-4 play. Penn State decides to take a deep shot and has a max protection package in (7 blockers). That leaves three defenders on each side to cover two receivers for Utah, a good numbers position to be in for the defense.

On the previous drive, Penn State had run a slant on second-and-long to put themselves in position for the long run. This time, they fake the slant and both the corner and the safety bite hard on the pump. The result is an easy throw to a wide-open receiver for another long touchdown.

Finally, there’s whatever this is.

I’m showing a longer clip here because the Utes look completely disheveled. The entire defensive line shifts back and forth. They finally get lined up correctly, but while they’re doing that, cornerback Zemaiah Vaughn (#16, top of the screen) is looking at the coaching staff to get his assignment.

At the snap, Vaughn stays home to take the tight end out in the flat, clearly expecting deep safety help. Instead, the safety is late to rotate over and Penn State throws to what is essentially an uncovered wide receiver.

Had this sort of thing happened in the second half of the Rose Bowl for Florida’s defense last season, I would have excoriated the defensive coordinator. You know how I know? Because I did just that after Florida’s defense couldn’t stop FSU last year, starting with a play where Patrick Toney decided to have DT Gervon Dexter serve as a spy on FSU QB Jordan Travis.

This was the Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes, playing in their 13th game of the season and it looked like a spring scrimmage at critical times of the game with players not knowing what to do and blowing assignments.

Utah has a reputation for being a hard-nosed, defensive team. Scalley has been a big part of gaining that reputation. But if things get sideways this season for them, Utes fans are going to have to ask some hard questions.

Additional Question Marks

Florida has a lot of questions heading into this game, the most important of which is obviously Mertz at the QB position. But Utah has a bunch of question marks too.

Consider, the Utes are going to start a true freshman at left tackle. Spencer Fano is a high-level recruit (4-star, 42nd national ranking in 247Sports Composite) and I expect him to be really good eventually. But what would we be pointing at if the Gators were starting a true freshman on the offensive line at left tackle to start the season? You can bet that Austin Armstrong is going to test that side of the Utah OL with a few stunts.

Or you could point out that tight end Brant Kuithe – who has been very good for years – is coming off of an ACL injury suffered in the fourth game last season. Athletic players coming back from ACL injuries often take a while to get back into the groove of things, and given the season Dalton Kincaid put up last season (70 catches), it is fair to wonder whether the departure of one-half of Utah’s two-headed tight end monster will close up windows that have otherwise previously been open.

Cornerback Clark Phillips, III was selected by the Falcons in the fourth round of the NFL draft, only taken that low because he is undersized for the NFL. In fact, one SI article I read this offseason called him, “arguably the greatest defender ever to suit up for the Utes.” That’s a big statement for a team that ranked 102nd in yards per pass allowed last season.

And Phillips isn’t the only departure. Senior safety R.J. Hubert (78 tackles, 2 PDs, 3 sacks) has run out of eligibility as well. The departure of Phillips and Hubert means redshirt freshman Tao Johnson is going to be stepping in at nickel back. Johnson did get time on the field last season, but as a wide receiver, and has converted to defensive back this offseason. Given it was Hubert getting burned a lot on those clips above, should I have a lot of confidence that Johnson will be well-versed in the system on Week 1?

And that doesn’t highlight the largest question mark on the roster for the Utes: the QB position.

Quarterback

Cameron Rising has been a great college player. But as I highlighted in our “Toss-Up” series, he has really used his legs to drive himself from an above average QB to a good one. Is he going to be able to do that in his first game back from an ACL injury that he suffered in January?

If Rising can’t go, who is the backup?

Given the fall camp injury to Brandon Rose (who seemed to have pulled ahead in the QB battle), junior Bryson Barnes is the guy the Utes have listed as the backup on their depth chart. On the surface, Barnes’ numbers don’t look too bad. He went 37-57 for 430 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with a QB rating of 144.4, or slightly above average. He also ran 20 times for a 5.8 yards per attempt average, meaning he isn’t going to get caught in the backfield getting sacked and looking helpless.

But…..just about all of his rushing yards came against Washington State (8 for 51) and Colorado (2 for 62), not exactly defensive juggernauts. And when faced with an excellent defense against Penn State, his numbers were 7 rushes for -17 yards. In other words, he’s not a statue back there, but we’re not talking Michael Vick.

Admittedly, Barnes wasn’t planning on playing a major role against the Nittany Lions. And Penn State finished third in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents in 2022. But Barnes’ performance (he went 10-19 for 112 yards) came after weeks of bowl practices where he should have received way more reps than he would during a normal week.

I’m not saying Barnes can’t play well. But it’s entirely possible that Utah will have a player making his second-ever start (he started vs. Washington State when Rising was a late scratch) with a true freshman at left tackle. Not exactly a recipe for an offensive explosion.

But let’s say Rising does play in this one. Well, without his legs to buy him extra time and Utah extra first downs, what are we going to see? I’m suspecting the best case scenario is the player we saw in the pocket against the Gators last season in Gainesville, which….wasn’t great.

On this play, Rising does everything right. He reads that Rashad Torrence (#22) is coming on the blitz and throws the ball to the area vacated by the blitzing safety. But he completely short-arms the throw and spikes the ball straight into the ground. The result is that Utah ends up punting the ball a play later rather than having the ball in field goal range with 50 seconds to go in the half.

This isn’t an isolated incident.

Utah has an opportunity here to really put their foot on Florida’s throat. Already up 7-0, facing a third-and-7 after Florida’s offense fumbled on the opening drive and then quickly punted. At the snap, tight end Brant Kuithe (#80) stays in to block but then releases. Florida completely neglects to pick him up, leaving him about as wide open as you can be. Rising just completely misses the throw and Utah punts the ball back to the Gators, who would tie the game up on the next drive.

And everybody remembers that the game last year ended on the Amari Burney interception, but not everybody remembers that it could have ended on this play.

Middle linebacker Ventrell Miller (#51) drifts to his right at the snap, as he’s responsible for running back Micah Bernard (#2) in coverage. But Miller never actually comes up to guard Bernard, instead electing to sit back believing Rising will try to force the ball to his tight end, Kuithe. That’s exactly what happens and Miller should have had a game-ending interception. Bernard actually put his foot in the ground to come across the middle and I’m not sure anybody would have caught him for 25 or 30 yards.

Rising makes a lot of good plays, but he missed a ton of critical plays last year against the Gators. Had he not run for over 100 yards, the Utes would have been blown out of Gainesville. He did run for more than 100 yards so they weren’t, but that’s where the ACL injury comes in. If it limits his mobility at all, I’m not sure Rising is a good enough passer to make up the difference.

Takeaway

I have reservations about Graham Mertz. So do all the Gators fans out there. But if Utah hasn’t fixed its defensive communication and scheme issues that they had in the Rose Bowl, I’m not sure he’s going to have to be great.

Trevor Etienne nearly broke a big run against the Utes last year and he likely is going to get a chance to do so again. As much as I think freshmen wide receivers take time to step up, I can envision a scenario where Eugene Wilson gets a screen pass and takes it to the house against this defense.

And for all of Mertz’ faults, if Utah bites on pump fakes and leaves receivers open down the field, those are throws he absolutely should be able to make.

Everyone sees the Pac-12 championship banner from last year and sees the Gators coming off of a 6-7 season and believes the gap between the two teams must be really wide. But last year’s game was actually dominated physically by the Gators even if it didn’t show on the scoreboard. There’s a reason that the Pac-12 never gets into the four-team playoff and it’s because nobody in the country actually believes that the conference is on-par with the SEC, Big Ten or even ACC.

And while some may point to the Utes wanting to avenge last year’s loss, I’d submit that losing to Florida then winning the Pac-12 title is a less bitter pill to swallow than getting embarrassed by Oregon State in the bowl game and then having media pundits pick you to go 3-9 (1-7 SEC) finishing behind Vanderbilt.

Utah has a large home-field advantage. If they get up at all, it could be rough sledding for Florida. But let’s be honest: Mertz has played at both Ohio State and Michigan. He’s seen big crowds before. A lot of this Gators team was in Knoxville last year and there isn’t anything much more intense than that.

But this isn’t going to be a game won by the crowd. It’s going to be Utah’s QB vs. Graham Mertz against two defenses that were awful last year. The question is which decision – Utah sticking with Morgan Scalley at DC or Florida moving on to Austin Armstrong – is going to pay larger dividends for each unit.

I’m going with Armstrong.

Florida (+6.5) wins, 34-24.