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Florida slogs to 22-7 win over Charlotte

Fans walking out of the Swamp after Florida’s 22-7 win over Charlotte probably felt a little bit conflicted.

On one hand, the game was never in doubt and the Gators defense dominated. But on the other hand, the Gators offense – which looked unstoppable on the opening drive and much of the first quarter – continuously sputtered in the red zone. The result was a 15-point win that felt both strong and weak at the same time.

That Jekyl and Hyde feeling isn’t just limited to this one game. The Gators now have two games where the offense has sputtered in the red zone (Utah and Charlotte) and two games where they have been able to convert yards into touchdowns (McNeese and Tennessee).

If we’re looking for a bright spot, this is the third time in a row that the defense has kept the opponent to under 16 points. You’re going to win a bunch of games when that is the result. Graham Mertz was again very efficient (20-23, 259 yards), but that efficiency didn’t convert into points.

So what to make of this game overall? Just like the team, I think there’s some good and some bad.

Defense

The defense gave up 4.0 yards per play to Charlotte. That would have equated to the number one defense in the country last year against FBS opponents.

It also brings the Gators season total yards per play to 5.0 against FBS opponents. That ranks 42nd in the country and so what we’re seeing on the field is starting to be reflected in the underlying stats.  The yards per play metric is important to me because Florida’s offense has been winning the time of possession battle and so the point totals can easily be misleading just given the way the Gators have been shortening games.

Against Utah and Tennessee, the big plays given up by the defense turned into touchdowns. We all remember the opening play against Utah and then the deep throws Tennessee was able to hit. But against Charlotte, that wasn’t the case as the 49ers had three explosives in the first half and none of them went for touchdowns.

That’s something to watch as the season progresses as Armstrong historically has given up a bunch of big plays at Southern Miss, but he also has better secondary play now than he ever had there. If Florida can give up big plays but not allow them to be converted into touchdowns immediately, the defense is going to continue to shine.

More than anything, the defense is starting to play faster. I think that’s exemplified by this play here.

This play should look familiar. It’s very similar to the play Florida ran last week to score a touchdown on a screen to Montrell Johnson against Tennessee. Recall that Mertz got hit right as he was releasing the ball. That’s what Charlotte is trying to do, but QB Trexler Ivey is unable to find his open receiver before getting hit.

That’s because Bryce Thornton (#18) comes screaming off the edge. Thornton doesn’t hesitate when the receiver in motion goes past him. He trusts that linebacker Teradja Mitchell (#20) is going to pick him up and because of that is able to bring Ivey to the ground.

Had Ivey had more time, he would have been able to find his receiver in the flat, or perhaps his tight end (#81) who was leaking out of the formation as well. But it all just happened too fast for him to make that decision because Thornton was moving so fast.

Offense

Florida’s opening drive went 9 plays for 95 yards and a TD. The play selection on that drive was four passes and six runs. Montrell Johnson got all of those runs and put up 38 yards (6.3 yards per rush).

But Johnson finished the half with 8 rushes, and Trevor Etienne finished the half with just two.

Etienne got stuffed on a third-and-1 deep in Charlotte territory with the Gators up 7-0 and Napier decided to kick the field goal to go up 10. Napier said afterwards in his press conference that the analytics said to kick there (I disagree, but I don’t think it’s an egregious decision), but that’s not the red zone possession that I think deserves the most criticism.

Instead, that was the next one when Florida had Charlotte on the ropes at 10-0. Punch it in and at 17-0, the game is already out of control. Maybe Charlotte lets up a little bit and the backups are in for the second half. Get stopped and Charlotte feels some hope and digs in for the rest of the game.

So what was the play call on first-and-10 from the Charlotte 12? A QB draw.

Watching live I assumed somebody must have screwed up and that it was a busted play. This is a play you call for Anthony Richardson, not for Graham Mertz. But when Mertz hits the back of his drop, Caleb Douglas (#6, circled) is blocking. Arlis Boardingham (#8) pulls across the formation to block Charlotte’s linebacker. There’s no play action to the running back and there aren’t any receivers downfield. The only thing that could have happened is Treyaun Webb – who is a true freshman – could have gone the wrong direction. But we don’t see any indication of that from Mertz.

Regardless, this is a complete waste of a play here. If you catch Charlotte napping, you probably gain 5 yards. That should be the expectation if you hand the ball to a running back. Instead it’s a gain of one and Florida now becomes really predictable.

The Gators (as they normally do) ran the ball on second down, setting up a third-and-7.

This would have been an awesome play on first or second down. Florida throws a lot of screens, and they fake screens to each side here with and then try to sneak Boardingham (#8) down the middle of the field after initially blocking.

But there are two problems with this play. The first is that since it is third-and-7, Charlotte is dropping linebackers at the first sign of pass. That leaves Boardingham double-covered and flushes Mertz from what is a pretty good pocket.

The other issue is that once Mertz gets flushed, receivers Caleb Douglas (#6) and Ricky Pearsall (#1) block for Mertz so the only option he has is to try to run the ball in. I’d prefer to see Mertz float towards the sideline while those guys try to work their way open.

Mertz’s stats were great in this game. He averaged 11.3 yards per attempt and completed 87 percent of his passes. But you can’t just point at stats and suggest that Florida’s red zone struggles lie elsewhere. I thought the play calls in the red zone were abysmal, but show me where Mertz was a difference maker in this area.

That means that every red zone possession against good teams from here on needs to focus on one thing and one thing only. As Nick Knudsen likes to say, feed #2 and feed #7.

Takeaway

Had you told me that Florida would be 3-1 after its opening four games back in July or August, I would have been thrilled. The fact that the one loss is to Utah and so Florida is 1-0 in SEC play makes it that much better.

But Florida had to be nearly perfect (8-9 on third downs in the first half) to build the lead they got against the Vols. The Gators went 1-13 on third down against Utah and looked bad offensively and went 1-9 against Charlotte and looked pedestrian.

This offense sits on a razor’s edge between competent and poor because it doesn’t have another gear, at least not when the ball isn’t making its way into the hands of the most dynamic players on that side of the ball. And the third down – and red zone – struggles that Florida has had against defenses as different as Utah and Charlotte suggests those struggles are more Florida than its opponent.

At the same time, Kentucky, Georgia and South Carolina haven’t looked much better than Florida thus far. Certainly, Florida isn’t going to be the favorite in all of those games, but there is a path to victory if Florida comes out motivated.

The other thing to consider is that the games where Florida’s running game has struggled have coincided with the absence of Kingsley Eguakun. Center is an overlooked position until a three-year starter has to be replaced. Giving him a week of rest and getting him back full strength against Kentucky is a big deal.

Expectations are a double-edged sword. Coming into the season, 3-1 at this point would have been good enough. This team was never going to win an SEC title given its limitations, and we’re seeing those limitations pop up from time-to-time.

Still, excellence – especially on defense – is popping up as well. Things are headed in the right direction, even if it didn’t feel that way during the sluggish victory over Charlotte. It doesn’t feel quite as good following this one as it did last week against Tennessee, but we would have found things to nitpick regardless of the score.

The reality is that getting a win and staying healthy (and stabilizing the kicking game) are more important in the big picture than the final score. This offense is going to be limited and is going to struggle at times. We should probably be glad that the Mr. Hyde version of the offense showed up against Charlotte in a win rather than last week against the Vols.

Now let’s hope Dr. Jekyl shows up against Kentucky next week.