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Florida vs. Kentucky Preview

Florida heads into Lexington to take on what has become a rival in recent years.

After three decades of dominance, Kentucky broke a 31-game losing streak to Florida in 2018 and has now won three of the last five games against the Gators.

The Wildcats stand at 4-0 but have yet to prove themselves against the murderer’s row of Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators are 3-1 and have played two top-25 opponents in Utah and Tennessee.

Florida’s next two opponents are Vanderbilt (2-3) and South Carolina (2-2). The Gamecocks play Tennessee this weekend and with a Vols win and a win over Kentucky, Billy Napier’s squad would essentially have at least a two-game conference lead on the Wildcats, Gamecocks, Vols and Commodores and would be favored to head into the Cocktail Party against Georgia with a 6-1 record.

Lose this game to Kentucky and the Gators fall back into the pack fighting for third through seventh place in the SEC East.

This game is a contrast in styles, and not the way we usually remember. Kentucky is a big-play team trying to hit an explosive play to put points on the board, even at the risk of a turnover. Florida is a conservative team, hoping to execute its opponent to death with long drives that bleed the clock and allow it to lean on its defense.

So which one wins on Saturday?

The Mertz Conundrum

Graham Mertz has played well thus far in 2023. His QB rating (163.5) is 29th in the country. He’s 32nd in the country in yards per attempt and 4th in the country in completion percentage. He ranks lower in my Yards Above Replacement (YAR) stat (46th nationally) because he doesn’t really bring a whole lot to a team in the running game, but we’d expect that based on his skill set.

He’s a decent player who is being used in an effective way by Billy Napier’s offense. But he’s not a difference maker.

I say that because there’s one glaring stat that stands out when I look at the performance of Mertz thus far this year: he’s 76th in the country – and 13th in the SEC – in yards per completion.

Normally I don’t look at that particular stat very much. The reason is that yards per attempt correlates most strongly with scoring and measures what a QB has actually accomplished when he drops back to throw. But in Mertz’s case, he is “only” averaging 9.0 yards per attempt despite completing 78 percent of his throws. Compare that to Kentucky QB Devin Leary, who is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt even though he is only completing 59 percent of his throws.

If you believe my conclusion that yards per attempt correlates with scoring, then this is concerning. Kentucky is getting almost the exact same per-play yardage as Florida with a QB who is completing passes 19 percent less often.

It’s really easy to see why if we look at Mertz’s and Leary’s throw distributions through the first four games.

The table above shows the percentage of completions and attempts for both Mertz and Leary based on the number of yards the ball travels through the air on the throw. Only 9 percent of Mertz’s throws this season have gone 20-plus yards, compared to 18 percent for Leary. But 70 percent of Mertz’s attempts have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and he’s doubled Leary’s percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage (36% to 18%).

The result is that Florida ranks 92nd in explosive plays over 20 yards (15) and 110th in plays over 30 yards (7). Kentucky ranks 13th in plays over 20 yards (28) and 18th in plays over 30 yards (13). That’s how you end up with three receivers (Barion Brown, Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key) all with more than 13 catches and averaging 14.3, 17.7 and 15.1 yards per reception, respectively.

Compare that to the Gators who only have one player with more than 10 catches who is averaging more than 10 yards per catch (Ricky Pearsall, 27 catches, 13.2 yards per reception). Perhaps there’s no better way to illustrate why than to look at the catch everyone has seen and marveled at over the past week.

This is an unbelievable catch by Pearsall which overshadows a really important point (to me, at least). He gets drilled the minute he catches the ball.

Kentucky is in a cover-one look with one deep safety. Given the routes that are being run, that coverage means Mertz should manipulate the safety away from one of his receivers and then throw to the other one. The throw to Pearsall isn’t a problem if the safety moves towards Caleb Douglas (#4) and is an optimized throw because Pearsall is being covered by a linebacker.

But when the safety stays on the near hash, it makes this a tough throw and one in which Pearsall has to lay his body on the line to complete the grab. In the meantime, Douglas completely turns the hips of the corner guarding him. That means the throw to Douglas is open down the seam for a touchdown.

This ended up as a 25-yard throw to Pearsall, but could have been a touchdown. The throw to Douglas is easier and had more upside, but Mertz decided to try and fit the ball in. And for all Pearsall does for the offense, it’s not healthy for him to be at 27 catches with the next nearest wide receivers at 12 (Trey Wilson) and 10 (Douglas).

You can bet that Kentucky’s defense will be locked-in on taking away Pearsall, which means Mertz will have to go somewhere else.

The Third Down Conundrum

But surely if Mertz is completing passes at such a high rate, he’s being really effective at converting third downs? Not so much.

In 2023, the Gators stand at 116th, converting 33.3 percent of their chances. That includes a 5-6 performance against McNeese State as well where Florida took care of business against an FCS foe.

It’s also not like Florida has consistently converted one out of three third downs either. The Gators have three halves this season where their third-down conversion percentage is above 67 percent and all other halves (5) are below 20 percent conversion, with three at zero.

Looking at these situations, it’s pretty easy to see when Florida succeeds and when they don’t. It’s completely correlated to being able to run the ball.

In the three halves where the Gators have been really good on third down, they’ve averaged 6.3 yards per rush and 24 carries per half. In the five halves where they have been putrid (7% conversion!), the Gators have averaged 2.5 yards per rush and 16 carries per half.

Against Tennessee (7-14 on third down), Florida faced an average of 7.8 yards to gain on third down and actually gained 5.4 yards on those plays, not exactly explosive. Against Utah (1-13 on third down), Florida faced an average of 10.2 yards to gain on third down and actually gained 3.4 yards, again not explosive.

The fascinating thing about the juxtaposition of those games is that Florida had three procedural penalties on third down in the Utah game (two false starts and a delay of game) that pushed the third down back. In each case, the Gators were unable to convert, twice gaining yardage that would have gotten the first down without the penalty.

And if we look at the Tennessee game, the Gators were able to get just enough yardage on multiple plays in the first half where they went 7-8 on third down.

• 11 yard pass to Trey Wilson on third-and-11
• 12 yard run for Etienne on third-and-5
• 8 yard pass to Douglass on third-and-5
• 6 yard run for Mertz on third-and-5
• 18 yard pass to Jackson on third-and-12
• 9 yard pass to Pearsall on third-and-7
• 1-yard run for Mertz on third-and-goal from the one

That luck ran out in the second half, as the Gators had the following:

• 8 yard pass to Pearsall on third-and-10
• Incomplete to Pearsall on third-and-4
• 3 yard run for Mertz on third-and-goal from the 7
• 3 yard run for Johnson on third-and-4
• 1 yard run for Etienne on third-and-7
• 3 yard run for Etienne on third-and-19

Other than the last two where Florida was trying to run out the clock, the Gators just weren’t able to overcome relatively short distances to put the game away.

This is where the limitations of Mertz really show. Because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field (11.5 yards per completion), Florida is reliant on long drives with multiple third-down conversions to succeed. But Florida isn’t very successful in known passing situations (33 percent success rate).

That’s a huge problem because it forces Napier to go away from the skill players who can truly make a difference (Etienne and Johnson) because if they get stuffed on first down, Florida is immediately in a situation where they are going to struggle. More than anything, I suspect this is why Napier is throwing the ball on early downs so much this year.

But that has a cascading effect. An incompletion on first down means that Etienne and Johnson never get into any sort of rhythm. It also means that Florida is extremely predictable on second-and-long as Napier has to try to avoid pure passing situations on third down. But the defense knows that too, which is why Florida’s offense seems so stagnant for halves at a time.

Again, I think Mertz has acquitted himself well so far this season. But he has limitations that are severely hampering the Gators offense.

The Leary Conundrum

Kentucky has the opposite problem. Devin Leary goes down field a lot, but thus far, he’s been extremely turnover prone. The Kentucky QB has five interceptions and a QB rating of 147.8, well below that of Mertz.

But one thing we need to look at is whether Leary’s interceptions were his fault. I’m showing videos of each of them with a quick breakdown below.

This is a poor decision by Leary and is a classic case of a QB who should want to throw to where the blitz is coming from. It’s fourth-and-2 and Ball State is bringing a blitz from both linebackers, so he understandably wants to get the ball out quickly. But he throws away from the blitz rather than to the two receivers who are coming open over the middle (circled). This is a QB who pre-decided where the ball was going and didn’t come off of that decision even when the defense altered what is was doing.

This is a freak INT. Leary has plenty of time and looks beyond the first down markers to start (it’s third-and-13). He then comes to his third or fourth read and lets the ball go. The ball is tipped and intercepted, but you can see as the camera moves that his receiver was open. It probably wouldn’t have been a first down, but I don’t place the blame for this INT on Leary at all.

I’m not sure who’s fault this is. The corner is playing way off the wide receiver and then opens his hips towards the inside of the field. That means this should be an easy throw to the sideline. Leary throw the out, but not where the receiver is. Whether that’s because the receiver didn’t run to the correct spot or whether Leary made a bad throw is unclear, but I lean towards thinking this is on the QB.

I’m okay with the decision here, but the execution is off. When Leary lets go of the ball, his receiver is in a one-on-one situation with the safety trailing five yards behind. Had he led his receiver at all, the safety never gets into the play. Instead, he throws the ball short and the corner ends up making the interception. This is going to happen sometimes when you take a shot downfield, but Leary needs to give his receiver a shot by getting the throw further downfield.

Leary had a man coming open over the middle (circled). But the minute his foot hits the ground on his drop, he gets blasted by the blitzing linebacker. It’s hard to fault him for this one, given that his running back blocked the outside blitzer rather than the one coming on the inside. This goes down as an INT on Leary’s ledger, but I blame his blockers for this one.

If we’re breaking down the interceptions, one is a poor decision, two are physical errors (poor throws), one is a tipped pass that normally hits the ground and another is one where Leary got blasted on a blitz. Certainly that opens up some options for Austin Armstrong to try and replicate, but calling Leary “turnover prone” is a little bit of a stretch.

Is he pressing in a new situation? Probably. But Leary’s stats this season are much more similar to his breakout 2021 season at NC State than last year before he got hurt and his interception rate (4.1%) just isn’t going to remain that high. At some point Leary is going to let the game come to him. And when he does, the explosiveness of the Kentucky offense is going to increase to another level. Hopefully that doesn’t happen this weekend.

Special Teams

It’s been well documented some of the mistakes that Florida has made on special teams so far this year. Zach Goodall at SI did a good job of outlining all of those mistakes earlier this week.

But even if we take Billy Napier at his word that the special teams is getting better and that it’s going to be completely fixed in this one (I have my doubts), Kentucky still has a major advantage. To see that advantage clearly, we can first focus on Florida.

On kick returns, Florida has almost exclusively used Trevor Etienne. If you’ve been paying any attention to my writing/podcasts this season, you know I think Etienne is special. And on those kick returns, Etienne is averaging 23.0 yards per return on three returns. That tracks closely with the 24.8 yards per return that he averaged in 2022 on 17 returns.

Now look at Kentucky. There Barion Brown – who made the freshman All-SEC team at WR and AP – is averaging 33.2 yards per return on five returns. That’s after averaging 27.5 yards per return on 16 returns last year. If Florida doesn’t put kickoffs in the end zone for touchbacks, they’re going to regret it.

Brown makes a difference on punt returns as well, and again, we can use Florida for comparison’s sake. The Gators’ main punt returner is Ricky Pearsall, who is averaging 7.3 yards per punt return on 6 tries this season. That tracks with his averages last year as well.

But Brown is averaging 23.5 yards per punt return this season (albeit on two tries), proving he’s a dangerous weapon there as well.

In the kicking game Kentucky has the advantage as well.

It’s basically a wash at punter, where Kentucky’s Wilson Berry has 12 punts for an average of 44.3 yards while Florida’s Jeremy Crawshaw isn’t too far behind with 10 punts and a 43.6 yard average. Remember though that Crawshaw has two punts of less than 30 yards, one against Utah and another against Tennessee.

Florida may have found the solution to their kicking game last week with Trey Smack making five field goals and a PAT, but it is worrisome that he hasn’t beaten out Adam Mihalek in practice. But a solution is necessary because the Gators have thus far already surrendered seven points just to placekicking (2 missed FGs, one missed PAT).

Conversely, the Wildcats’ Alex Raynor is 4/4 on field goals and 20/20 on PATs. And if you’re asking me who I trust with the game on the line, it’s clearly Raynor. Not only is he perfect this year, but he went 18-20 on field goals last year and is 49-63 in his career.

Takeaway

Florida has played one good half against a quality opponent this season. The fact that it occurred against Tennessee was good timing (and perhaps proof that a Swamp curse does exist for the Vols), but the 3-1 record Florida has thus far feels a little bit like a mirage.

There’s no doubt that the Gators defense is better this year than it has been recently. The Gators rank 38th in yards per play allowed vs. FBS opponents and 23rd in points per game allowed, a welcome change.

But their opponents – even the good ones – have been offensively challenged. Utah is 108th in yards per play this season and ranks 121st with only 10 plays of 20-plus yards. Tennessee is 24th in yards per play this season but ranks 75th with 18 plays of 20-plus yards. Florida can only play who is in front of them, and the Gators defense wouldn’t have stopped either opponent last year, but we should acknowledge neither of those opponents are juggernauts.

But Kentucky is a different animal. The Wildcats rank 8th in yards per play and 13th with 28 plays of 20-plus yards. And while I spent a lot of time talking about QBs in this article, Kentucky ranks 11th in yards per rush. If they can run the ball at all, Florida will have to bring a safety up into the box. That will open them up to a deep shot explosive, exactly what Kentucky is looking for.

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. Yes, they have played poor competition this year so far, but even if you assume that they regress back to where they were last year, they were 37th in that category last season. That means even if the Wilcats aren’t elite but are similar to last year, you’re probably looking at a team that gives up around 23 points per game.

The problem is that I don’t think 23 is going to be enough to win this one.

That means Florida is going to have to outperform what would be expected against this defense. And that means Florida is going to have to convert a large majority of their third downs. If they make every play like they did in the first half against Tennessee, they’ll be able to sustain drives and keep things close. If they struggle to convert, it’s going to feel a lot like the stagnant offense we saw against Utah.

The stat I shared above regarding third downs was pretty clear. When the Gators convert third downs, they average 24 carries per half. When they don’t, they average 16 carries per half. That means this one comes down to the mantra Nick and I have been pushing all year long: Feed #2, Feed #7.

But for the reasons I’ve outlined above, I’m not sure Napier’s going to be able to do that consistently. Add to that the major advantages that Kentucky has on special teams, specifically with Barion Brown, and I don’t see this one as being particularly close.

Kentucky (-2.5) wins, 27-13.

Picks this year: 2-2 (0-3 ATS)