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Reasons Florida will win vs. South Carolina

South Carolina went 8-5 last year, with wins over Tennessee and Clemson to end their regular season. Shane Beamer was rightly lauded for that success.

But success often doesn’t come linearly, and the Gamecocks stand at 2-3 heading into Saturday’s game against the Gators. A loss here leaves them scrambling for bowl eligibility while a win sets them up for a schedule that only has one ranked team (Kentucky) currently left on their schedule.

On the other side, the Gators are at 4-2 after a win over Vanderbilt. Florida is about to enter the gauntlet of its schedule, facing three ranked teams in the final six games, two of whom are ranked in the top-4.

All of that to say that both of these teams should be plenty motivated to take care of business in this game. We finally have enough games under our belt to start to understand what each of these teams has under the hood, so let’s take a look.

Quarterback

Spencer Rattler and Graham Mertz are very similar QBs.

While Rattler has completed a lower percentage of his passes (73% to 80%), he has a slightly higher yards per attempt (8.7 to 8.4) but has thrown more interceptions (3 to 2). The result is that Mertz has a higher QB rating, but just by a little bit (165.4 to 156.2).

Despite getting hit a ton this year, Rattler has improved. Last season he completed 66 percent of his throws for a 7.6 yards per attempt average. This season, that average is up to 8.7, based almost solely on accuracy as his yards per completion has stayed relatively consistent (11.5 in 2022 vs. 11.9 in 2023). That improvement has come against relatively stiff competition given the Gamecocks have already faced Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee.

Where Rattler differentiates himself from Mertz is on the ground. Rattler has 43 rushes for 83 yards this season, a 1.9 yards per rush average that doesn’t seem very impressive. But we have to remember that South Carolina is allowing 4.6 sacks per game (!) this season, ranked 131st out of 133 FBS teams. Florida is ranked 101st, but the Gators are only allowing 2.5 sacks per game, which says a lot about Rattler’s offensive line.

Certainly some of those sacks are on Rattler, whether it’s checking protections, plays or just holding onto the ball too long. But if we were to remove the 132 yards lost on those 23 sacks, Rattler’s yards per carry average goes up to 10.8. If we do the same thing with Mertz, his yards per carry average only goes up to 4.1. The Gamecocks also only allowed 2.4 sacks per game last season, which suggests that much of the difference this year is on the offensive line.

Still, Rattler has been better. He had 73 rushes for just 46 yards last year (0.6 yards per attempt). That means Florida’s defense needs to be much more wary of what Rattler can do with his legs when he gets outside the pocket that they were last season.

And this is also where Rattler differentiates himself from Mertz. Florida’s QB is taking so many sacks and adds so little on designed running plays that his average rush is negative. That means using my Yards Above Replacement (YAR) stat, Mertz is right around average (-0.09) while Rattler is solidly above average (0.58).

This isn’t a huge disadvantage for Florida. In a lot of the conventional statistics, Mertz has a slight edge. But there are going to be a couple of plays where Rattler either converts a third down with his legs or escapes pressure to extend a play and hits a throw downfield.

Advantage: South Carolina

Running Game

I’m sure you’ve heard by now that Florida is 1-7 in games away from the Swamp in the Billy Napier era. What you may not have heard about is why Florida is 1-7 in those games.

I went back and looked at each game and what becomes pretty clear is that in the win (Texas A&M) and two competitive losses last season (Tennessee and Florida State), the offense did its job. In those three games, the Gators averaged 37.3 points per game and not coincidently, rushed for 231 yards on 46 carries.

In the other five losses, the Gators have averaged 14.4 points per game and 53 yards rushing on 28 carries. “Feed 2, Feed 7” appears to be alive and well.

The most disturbing part is that Florida hasn’t run the ball well on the road at all ever since Anthony Richardson left. In the bowl game against Oregon State and the two road games this season, Florida is averaging 1.46 yards per attempt and 9 points. You’re not winning anything – home or away – with those stats.

The good news for the Gators is that Trevor Etienne should be back, and the Gators finally found something on the ground against Vanderbilt last week. After not topping 4.3 yards per rush all season against an FBS opponent, Florida exploded for a 7.2 yard per carry average.

You might point to Vanderbilt as the opponent and their ranking of 95th in yards per carry as the reason for Florida’s success. You might be right. But South Carolina is ranked 75th in the same category, potentially opening up an opportunity for the Gators on the ground.

On the other side, South Carolina has been devastatingly bad on the ground.

The Gamecocks are ranked 120th in yards per rush against FBS opponents, and their best statistical running back is Mario Anderson (44 carries, 230 yards). But 75 of those yards came on one carry last week against Tennessee. Exclude that one big play and South Carolina is averaging 2.3 yards per rush. That’s just brutal.

I don’t blame the running backs though. I used a stat in my Vanderbilt preview last week called “line yards,” which can best be explained as the number of yards the offensive line is responsible for on a given play. Florida’s is at 3.3. South Carolina’s is at 2.7.

So think about the criticism the Gators offensive line has received for not opening holes, and now recognize that South Carolina’s offensive line is 0.6 yards worse. Woof.

Advantage: Florida

Defense

From a points allowed perspective, this matchup doesn’t even look close. The Gators are allowing 18.8 points per game against FBS opponents (24th) compared to 31.5 for South Carolina (94th).

However, Florida only ranks 76th in yards per play allowed (5.6) compared to 111th for South Carolina (6.3). That’s still a significant gap, but is much narrower than just the point totals and the gap in rankings for the Gators suggests they’ve been overperforming on the scoreboard compared to what’s actually been happening on the field.

The place where things separate for the defenses is where they have struggled. The Gators rank 98th in yards per rush allowed compared to 75th for South Carolina. But the Gators rank 41st in yards per pass allowed compared to 112th for South Carolina.

And if we compare how each team prevents explosive plays – a weakness for Florida’s defense thus far in 2023 – the separation becomes even clearer.

Florida’s defense is giving up way fewer big plays than the South Carolina defense. That’s especially true in the 10-plus yard range where a lot of effective runs end up wearing out a defense. For a Florida offense starved for big plays – and a South Carolina offense that will have to rely on them because of sub-standard offensive line play – this bodes well.

Florida’s defense hasn’t improved as much as the point totals on the scoreboard would suggest. But it’s pretty clear, they’re better than South Carolina’s defense thus far.

Advantage: Florida

Takeaway

The services that use statistics to rank these teams have them pretty even. ESPN’s FPI has South Carolina at 36 and Florida at 34. The Gamecocks are ranked 37th in the Sagarin rankings compared to 41st for the Gators.

South Carolina has played a tough schedule, with teams rated 16th (North Carolina), 4th (Georgia), 50th (Mississippi State) and 17th (Tennessee) in the FPI ratings. That’s better than Florida’s schedule, where the Gators have played teams ranked 26th (Utah), 17th (Tennessee), 104th (Charlotte), 38th (Kentucky) and 103rd (Vanderbilt) in those same rankings.

That’s why South Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite. Vegas sees roughly even teams with a 3-point home field advantage given to the Gamecocks.

I understand the urge to write off some of South Carolina’s issues because of the quality of its opponents. But it’s not like Georgia and North Carolina are the only teams to torch this defense. Mississippi State had 519 yards (7.3 yards per play) and Tennessee had 477 (6.6 yards per play). Even Furman put up 5 yards per play and 21 points against the Gamecocks.

I do think Rattler is going to make a play or two with his legs to extend a couple of drives. But I also think we’re going to walk out of this one feeling way better about the Florida offensive line. With Etienne back, there is going to be a big play or two that pops for the Gators through the run game, and given the sieve that South Carolina has been through the air, probably a few big plays for Florida through the air as well.

After the Kentucky debacle and the 1-7 record on the road, it’s tough to trust this Gators team. But I’m going to trust this week against a South Carolina team that just hasn’t been very good thus far.

Florida (+2.5) wins, 31-21.

Picks this season: 4-2 (1-4 ATS)