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Arkansas runs over the Gators

Florida blew what is probably its best shot at getting bowl eligible by dropping a game that was winnable against Arkansas.

In my preview, I picked the Gators to win by 3, but also expressed that this was going to be a close game. That proved to be the case as the Gators and Razorbacks went back-and-forth with big plays and mistakes pretty much the entire game.

The fact that the Gators blew a chance to win the game at the end with a ridiculous level of disorganization prior to spiking the ball to set up the game winning field goal – and causing a 5-yard penalty and enough confusion to ice their own kicker – was emblematic of the game as a whole. Some might say it is emblematic of the season or the Napier era as well.

I know if feels like Florida let this one slip away. But a look at the statistics says it’s actually the other way around. Collegefootballdata.com has a stat called post-game win percentage, which predicts the percentage chances a team will win the game given the same statistical profile. It had Arkansas winning 92 percent of the time. The Hogs averaged 6.2 yards per play compared to the Gators’ 5.6.

I’m not sure whether that makes me feel better or worse. Florida shouldn’t be a program that is getting outplayed by a 2-6 Arkansas squad. At the same time, the Gators played worse than the Razorbacks and so got what they deserved.

Big picture what it means is that Florida is going to have to upset one of its remaining three opponents to get to .500 and a bowl game. Otherwise, there won’t be any games in December and it’s going to be a long offseason.

How the game was won

You’re not going to win many games when you give up 39 points.

All week on Gators Breakdown, Stand Up & Holler and my preview article, we highlighted how much the Gators defense had struggled and how bad the Razorback’s offense was. I went so far as to say that the winner of the game was going to be the team that overcame its weakness the best.

Arkansas’ offense was averaging 4.2 yards per play coming into the game. Florida was giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Hogs averaged 6.2 yards per play in the game against the Gators, so it’s pretty clear who won that matchup.

The two keys I highlighted were big plays and K.J. Jefferson running the ball. Let’s look at each key separately.

Arkansas came into the game averaging 10.6 10-plus yard plays per game, 3.4 20-plus yard plays per game, 1.4 30-plus yard plays per game and 0.5 40-plus yard plays per game. The numbers for the Razorbacks in the game against the Gators were 19 (!) plays of 10-plus yards, 5 of 20-plus yards, and 2 of 40-plus yards.

That doesn’t happen because of just one thing, but I think there’s value in focusing in on a couple of things to try and understand how the Hogs not only increased their output of explosives, but also doubled their number of plays over 10-yards.

On this play, Florida is expecting a pass. It’s late in the fourth quarter, Arkansas needs a field goal to tie and Florida is trying to stop a big play. Running the ball is the right call here for the Hogs, and they do a nice job of winning the one-on-one battles up-front to open up a huge hole.

I’m actually fine with all of that. I’d like to see the Gators fight more up-front, but sometimes you lose a battle when you don’t have the numbers advantage. It’s what happens next that’s the issue.

Princely Umanmielen (#1) makes contact with Arkansas running back Raheim Sanders (#5) at the 41.5 yard-line. At that point, Sander is surrounded by four Gators and only one blocker, two of whom are safeties. Umanmielen is 6’5” and 255 pounds. Yet Sanders runs through Umanmielen, Devin Moore (#28), Jordan Castell (#14) and Miguel Mitchell (#10) for an additional nine yards after contact.

It wasn’t just that play that showed a lack of physicality for Florida.

Florida kind-of gets caught here outnumbered on the edge, but that’s not what I want you to look at. Instead, focus on safety Jaden Robinson (#29, circled). The left guard fires out to block him but falls down. Before Robinson can get around him though, the Arkansas left tackle and center drive defensive linemen Caleb Banks (#88) and Jamari Lyons (#95) back into Robinson. Combine that with Jack Pyburn (#44) getting knocked back by the right tackle and it’s a big play.

It kept happening over-and-over again. On this play, Jaydon Hill (#23) will be the first one to tell you that he should make the tackle in the backfield. But shouldn’t there be someone else there to help him wrap up? Hill has to blitz from the outside because the Gators can’t do anything up-front. And then when Sanders gets outside, both Devin Moore (#28) and Jordan Castell (#14) miss tackles that could have limited the damage.

Even on the biggest play for the defense – a fumble by A.J. Green – the fumble occurred because Green had run through three or four Gators for extra yardage and then the ball came out.

But it wasn’t just tackling in the running game that was a struggle for the Gators defense.

I’ve circled the receiver who’s going to be targeted on this play just before K.J. Jefferson lets the ball go. Somehow this turns into a 48-yard gash play that allows Arkansas to pull ahead with a field goal. The problem is two-fold. The first is that linebacker Derek Wingo (#15) has inside leverage on the receiver and lets receiver Andrew Armstrong (#2) cross his face and get inside. The second is that Jordan Castell (#14) completely whiffs on the tackle and doesn’t slow up Armstrong at all to allow Wingo the ability to clean up the tackle.

And we can’t talk about tackling without getting to the star of the fourth quarter: K.J. Jefferson. I’m going to do something I don’t normally do, which is show four straight videos in a row with the same thing pointed out in each one and see if you can find the common thread.

I’ve circled the deep safety in every single video. This “single high” safety means that Florida is bringing the other safety up into the box, typically to blitz or to help in run support. It also means that Florida is going to play man-to-man coverage against Arkansas’ receivers. This is a problem because in man coverage, you are watching your man and not the QB. So when the QB takes off to scramble, there are large holes for him to exploit.

Yes, Florida’s tackling was abysmal on many of Jefferson’s runs. But the common theme was that Florida’s defense was bringing an extra man consistently and still got blocked by Arkansas up-front. That left poor Jordan Castell downfield to take on Jefferson coming at him full-speed.

Until the Gators can get off blocks and make some plays at the line of scrimmage, the defense is going to continue to struggle.

Coaching

I know lots of people are going to point to the fire drill at the end of regulation that cost the Gators five yards and use that as an example of a poorly coached team, but I want to focus on a different play.

This screen pass is set up perfectly. The Gators have caught the Razorbacks in man coverage (we know this because the defender follows Arlis Boardingham (#8) when he goes in motion). They only need to block the linebacker in coverage on Montrell Johnson (first yellow arrow) and the corner playing off-coverage at the sticks (second yellow arrow) to spring Johnson for the first down.

Receiver Kahleil Jackson (#22) heads to block the linebacker. Right tackle Damieon Georgia (#76) allows the defensive end to slip by him and heads out to block the corner. But Jackson and George run into each other and neither player blocks a defender. Poor Montrell Johnson is left getting hit the minute he catches the ball and Florida ends up forced to punt.

This is a turnover. If the Gators convert this third down, they’re in field goal range with the potential for more. It’s also the ninth game of the year. Jackson and George have been starters all year long. Arkansas didn’t force a stop here. The Gators just didn’t block the Razorbacks.

This is the type of thing that should worry Gators fans. Napier is bringing in a ton more talent than his predecessors. But a 5-star wide receiver and 5-star right tackle don’t do you any good if they don’t block anyone.

This has been a consistent theme now for two straight years. Poor clock management. Poorly coached special teams. Poor tackling. Poor execution.

Napier even eluded to it after the game, saying “I think in particular for me, things that have nothing to do with the opponent, those are the things that you need to get fixed.” He talks often about Florida beating Florida. Eventually, that has to stop happening.

Takeaway

This loss is really depressing. Without a major upset, Florida is staring at a 5-game losing streak to end the season and a third straight season with a losing record. Urban Meyer talked about in “Swamp Kings” how three SEC losses and a 9-3 record made him fear for his job because of fan expectations. Florida fans would kill for 9 wins right about now.

For all the talk of Napier needing an offensive coordinator, it’s the defense that is currently letting this team down. Somehow, the Gators have gone 2-2 in the last four games while scoring more than 36 points in three of them. This isn’t the Big 12 circa 2008. At some point you have to get a stop.

I understand that Austin Armstrong is in his first season and he was hired relatively late for a coaching change this past offeseason, but the defense is just abysmal. The Gators are now ranked 111th in yards per play allowed (6.2), but it’s more than just that. The Gators are on their fifth straight opponent where they have given up more than 6.2 yards per play and have given up more than 7.2 three times.

Yes, there are young players on that side of the ball. And you could blame the injuries to Shemar James, Tyreek Sapp and Cam Jackson for the Arkansas game if you want to be really generous. But at some point, coaching is about putting your players in a position to succeed and Florida keeps rolling out the same starters and keeps getting gashed.

Fans are getting antsy. I understand the feeling, but I still have to advise patience. Those who point to the recruiting class coming in 2024 have a point, namely that creating major turnover on the staff will disrupt the one thing that this staff is currently doing well.

But that’s the thing that also concerns me. You’d expect two years in to have some idea of what Florida does well; some idea of what the Gators identity is going to be under Billy Napier. I can’t point to one thing that they do on the field better than their opponents on a consistent basis. More than anything, that’s what Napier is going to have to find in the next three games.

He may not be able to beat LSU, Missouri or FSU, but he needs to find an identity. Because I may be preaching patience right now, but that’s based more in the reality of buyouts and hope that D.J. Lagway is going to be a transcendent player.

But right now, that’s really the only hope I have left.