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LSU is the Gators’ shot.

At the beginning of the season, many folks would have penciled-in this LSU game, on the road, as a loss for the Gators. Perhaps they would have even written it down in ink.

But that was before LSU regressed on defense from a unit that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed in 2022 to a unit that ranks 115th in the same stat this year. That LSU has such a glaring weakness means that Florida has a real shot to win this game, the same as anyone else.

Need more hope? After its evisceration of LSU’s defense last week, Alabama is now averaging 5.7 yards per play. They cut through the Tiger’s defense like butter, putting up 507 yards and 42 points. Yet Alabama’s offense only ranks four spots above Florida and the Gators spot a 5.6 yard per play average very close to the Tide.

LSU clearly has an advantage on the offensive side of the ball, where they boast one of the best offenses in the country. But there are two issues to consider there. First, they may be missing their starting QB – and Heisman Trophy contender – Jayden Daniels who is currently in concussion protocol. Second, is the Tiger’s offensive advantage really that significant if their defense can’t stop anyone?

Last week, Florida’s game against Arkansas featured strength vs. strength (Gators offense vs. Arkansas defense) and weakness vs. weakness (Gators defense vs. Arkansas offense). This week, it is the complete opposite as both teams sport struggling defenses.

So let’s make the case for why Florida has a real shot to win this game.

Florida could have an advantage at QB

Jayden Daniels has been great all year. You could actually say that he’s been great ever since carving up the Gators last season in the Swamp. But given all the attention on concussions in football and the violence of the hit sustained at the hands of Alabama lineman Dallas Turner, putting him out there for a 6-3 team seems really short-sighted.

If Daniels can’t play, that would mean the Gators would see Garrett Nussmeier. If that names seems familiar, it’s because he is the son of former Gators offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier. Given some of the criticism his Dad received while in Gainesville, this one probably would mean a little bit more for Garrett.

Nussmeier is a much different QB than Daniels. He hasn’t thrown a ton of passes at LSU (174 from 2021-2023), but at this point he’s seen time in 16 games and so we should be able to look at those stats and understand who he is and who he is not.

The first thing you’ll notice is that Nussmeier has 8 TD passes and 6 INTs. The vast majority of those interceptions have come in games where Nussmeier has seen major action, so it wasn’t just him throwing it up in mop-up duty. He threw two picks against Arkansas in 2021 when he threw 31 passes. He threw another two picks against Southern in 2022 when he threw 23 passes. And he threw one interception each in games against Georgia (27 passes) and Purdue (15 passes) last season as well.

This suggests to me that Florida may get an opportunity to generate a turnover because of Nussmeier, not necessarily because they do anything spectacular on defense.

Nussmeier also has added negative value on the ground in his time at LSU. He has 7 rushes for -58 yards, suggesting a susceptibility to sacks and an inability to make up for it on the ground. That’s not a dealbreaker for Nussmeier, and 7 sacks on 174 throws isn’t terrible, but it’s a far cry from what Daniels is providing the Tigers (102 rushes, 684 yards).

That kind of rushing performance drives value. My Yards Above Replacement (YAR) stat that measures both passing and rushing efficiency has Daniels at 3.71, which is the best in the country by a wide margin (second in the Power-5 is Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at 2.44). But Daniels is putting up value through the air as well, averaging 11.3 yards per attempt with a QB rating of 199.8 (i.e. uber-elite).

Nussmeier trails way behind in each of those categories, with a career QB rating of 128.6 (111.4 this year), 7.6 yards per attempt (5.9 this year) and a YAR of -0.51 (-1.76 this year).

You can see this when you look at his high school profile. Nussmeier was a 4-star recruit, ranked 152nd overall by the 247Sports Composite. He completed 72 percent of his throws his senior season, but only averaged 9.5 yards per attempt. That suggests that he wasn’t going downfield all that often and that it inflated his completion percentage somewhat.

In fact, his senior season (213-297, 2815 yds, 33 TD, 5 INT) looks a lot like the profile of a player Gators fans are familiar with (179-255, 2275, 28 TD, 4 INT). That player, of course, is the illustrious Luke Del Rio.

Nussmeier may be better than Del Rio, who when he could stay healthy was a serviceable player for the Gators (QB rating of 118.3 for Florida). But to expect him to even approximate what Daniels was giving the Tigers is completely unreasonable.

LSU has had an advantage in every game they’ve played given the success of its offense, but that’s been in large part due to Daniels. How much that advantage goes away with Nussmeier under center may decide whether the QB matchup tilts in the Gators direction.

The Gators defense is actually (slightly) better than LSUs

Think about how frustrated you’ve been watching Florida’s defense against South Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas. And then imagine that the Gators defense gave up an extra four points in those games.

That’s how bad LSU’s defense has been. The Tigers have allowed 30.5 points per game and rank 115th in yards per play allowed, which includes being an equal opportunity offender against the run (103rd, 4.8 yards per rush) and against the pass (105th, 8.1 yards per pass).

Florida’s defense isn’t much better (111th in yards per play allowed), but in many ways that’s where LSU’s futility helps the Gators.

Last week’s matchup is a perfect example. Arkansas’ defense was just good enough to get a couple of stops against the Gators when it counted. But Florida’s defense – especially in the fourth quarter – couldn’t stop the Hogs at all. That put the pressure on Florida’s offense to be perfect.

But against LSU, the Gators offense won’t have to be perfect. They should be able to mess up a block or a throw and get away with it because the Tigers defense is so bad. And for an offense that has struggled to run the ball all season, this is really the time for Montrell Johnson (salty from not being offered a scholarship by LSU) and Trevor Etienne to shine.

I have no idea how Florida is going to stop Malik Nabors. But I equally have no idea how LSU is going to stop Ricky Pearsall or Tre Wilson. Wilson has been on a tear since his return from a shoulder injury, averaging 8.3 catches for 78 yards in the last four games. Given some of the tackling we’ve seen on the LSU side of the ball, we might be in for a really long house-call for Wilson.

Graham Mertz’s biggest weakness is also LSU’s biggest weakness

Graham Mertz has outplayed just about everyone’s expectations this year. I stated before the season that I suspected his absolute ceiling was a QB rating of 155 and a YAR of -0.21. League averages for those two stats are around 140 and 0.0. Mertz currently sits at 159 and -0.32.

So through the air, Mertz has actually exceeded expectations. But it’s on the ground – where sacks are factored into a QBs rushing yards – that Mertz has struggled. The Gators have given up 3.0 sacks per game (ranked 113th in the country) this season. Some of that is on the offensive line, but a big part of that is on Mertz, who often seems constitutionally unable to throw the ball away when pressured.

There’s a reason that my preseason projections had him at a negative YAR with a QB rating of 155. His career at Wisconsin consisted of bringing little-to-no value in the running game, and his 2021 season consisted of 50 rushes for -40 yards, dragging down his value.

But the good news for the Gators in this game is that LSU is really bad at rushing the passer. The Tigers are 99th in the country in sacks per game (1.78) and they get most of those sacks from a limited number of players.

Linebacker Harold Perkins has 4.0 sacks this season. Defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo is next with 2.5. Then comes another linebacker in Greg Penn with 2.0. Nobody else has more than 1.0. This suggests that just like the Gators, LSU isn’t getting any pressure up the middle, which means they have to bring pressure with a blitz. And when they blitz, their secondary can’t hold up.

Sound familiar?

The upshot to this is that LSU not getting pressure takes away the two weaknesses that Mertz has displayed this season. The first is the propensity to take sacks that I mentioned above. But the other is to check down to safer passes when larger opportunities might be there.

Here’s an example on the first play of overtime. Florida fakes the jet sweep to Tre Wilson (#3) and has Kahleil Jackson (#22) come across the formation into the flat. Arkansas’ linebacker (#1) takes Jackson, leaving Hayden Hansen (#89) open at the intermediate level. But Mertz can’t see that Hansen’s open because he is pressured immediately by the Arkansas defensive end. Had he been just a step slower, or had Mertz been a little bit more aggressive, and Florida opens up the overtime with a big gain to set themselves up to go for a TD.

I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that Mertz’s most aggressive game as measured by Average Depth of Target (ADOT) came against a South Carolina defense that is 86th in sacks this year. Combine that with the man coverage that the Gamecocks played against the Gators and it was a recipe for Mertz to take some shots.

If LSU can’t stop the run, they’ll have to bring a safety up. And when they do, that’ll open up some shots downfield for Mertz if the Tigers can’t get any pressure.

Florida is motivated

LSU sits at 6-3 (4-2 SEC) with no mathematical way to overtake the Tide in the SEC West. This was a team that came in a really close second to Alabama in the SEC Media Day preseason vote to win their division and all of that was alive until the loss last week. They’ve already achieved bowl eligibility and are only playing for bowl positioning at this point.

The Gators have heard all week about how they let one get away against Arkansas. They’ve also heard how they’re going to end the season on a 5-game losing streak. And they’re a young team that hasn’t experienced any success yet.

I mentioned earlier that Montrell Johnson comes into this one salty at LSU for not offering him a scholarship. Here’s what he had to say.

“The previous coaches that was at LSU, they’d come visit me at the school and be like ‘I’m the best back in the state,’ but no offer, you know what I’m saying? It’s not making sense. I kind of took that personal.”

But Johnson isn’t the only one who should be extra motivated. Trevor Etienne hails from Jennings, Louisiana, an hour-and-a-half away from Baton Rouge. For a team that has forced me and Nick Knudsen to repeat our “Feed #2, Feed #7” mantra all season long, this is a game where that shouldn’t even be a question.

And Billy Napier should be motivated for this one as well.

#LSU did not seriously pursue Billy Napier, sources tell @SINow, despite a swell of support for the coach in south Louisiana.

The Tigers face Florida annually (at least until the SEC changes its scheduling format with the additions of OU and Texas).

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) November 28, 2021

Napier was right in LSU’s back yard. He had relationships with the high school coaches in the area and had taken an average Louisiana team and thrust it into the national rankings. Why wasn’t he considered for the opening?

That looked like a wise move for LSU after winning the SEC West last year, but given Ed Orgeron’s recruiting prowess and LSU coming back to the pack this year, Napier could make the Tigers regret that decision if he can get his own momentum going.

Napier’s about as even-keel a guy as you’re going to find in this profession, but you don’t get to this level without an ego. We’ve seen it start to come out as he’s been questioned as the losses have mounted this year. If you don’t think this one means a little bit extra to him, you’re crazy.

LSU isn’t a great team

It’s easy to think that LSU is way better than Florida because they’re ranked 19th in the country. But that ranking is based on a win in a shootout over Missouri, a close loss to Ole Miss where they gave up more than 700 yards and two blowouts to FSU (21 point loss) and Alabama (14 point loss).

The rest of the schedule is a win over FCS Grambling, a 41-14 win over a struggling Mississippi State, a 48-18 win over a rebuilding Auburn and a 34-31 win over the Arkansas team that Florida just played.

The advanced metrics love LSU. They rank 10th in the ESPN FPI and Sagarin ratings. But they’re also a team that has surrendered 47.3 points per game in its three losses.

None of this says that the Gators are better than the Tigers, but this idea that LSU is heads and shoulders better than Florida is based on what LSU accomplished last year and Jayden Daniels. And even if Daniels plays, is he going to be the same player who has been running all over the field all year long?

That has been LSU’s differentiator this year. Their offense is so much better than other teams in the SEC that they’ve been able to cover for their defensive shortcomings better than others might. If the offense takes a step back, they’re essentially Florida and this is a dogfight.

Takeaway

I do think there’s a real chance for Florida to win this game. Motivation makes such a big difference in football and the Gators should be a motivated team and I would expect LSU to come out flat.

But Jayden Daniels has been announced as probable. If he plays, Florida is taking on a QB who statistically should win the Heisman Trophy. LSU is essentially replicating Florida’s 2020 season where the Gators had Kyle Trask and a defense who couldn’t stop anybody.

That means LSU is vulnerable, just like that Gators team was when LSU came into the Swamp for the fog game. But it also means that LSU as a heavy favorite is understandable just because their offense is that good.

This series is weird. I’ve been to a bunch of Florida/LSU games over the years and they always seem to turn on a special teams play, whether that’s punter Brad Wing running into the end zone on a fake punt or a fake field goal that bounces right up to the kicker. A focus on special teams though likely is bad for the Gators, as they have had at least one special teams mistake in just about every game this year.

LSU is a 15-point favorite because Florida has struggled on the road and Jayden Daniels is that good. I think this one is way closer than that if Daniels plays and Florida maybe even pulls it out if Nussmeier is in the game.

LSU (-15.0) wins, 37-27.

Picks this year: 6-3 (4-4 ATS).