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Keys to a Florida win over Missouri

Billy Napier comes into this game against Missouri needing a win.

Some of that is because he needs to shift the narrative. After three straight losses to bring the Gators to 5-5, Napier and Co. are staring at a 5-game losing streak to end the season. Combine that with the flips of three blue-chip recruits from the 2024 class, and it feels like everything is headed in the wrong direction.

Some of that is because Florida needs the reps. The Gators are probably the youngest team in the country and bowl games mean you get 15 extra practices after the season is over. A sixth win would send the Gators bowling and give them those practices, as well as an ability to end the year with a win.

But most of it is for his relationship with the fans. Gators fans have understandably been disappointed a lot over the past decade. And while 10-3 seasons have been deemed not good enough in the past, there’s no doubt that 5-7 just objectively is not. The noise that you hear about Napier and his job situation may be a little bit over-the-top, but it’s actually a good sign. At least if you’re hearing that noise, the fans are still engaged. Lose the last two and the apathy that will set in will not be good for Napier or the program.

So that’s what’s on the line when Florida heads to Columbia to play Missouri. Florida is a pressure cooker, and if he didn’t know it already, Napier is starting to find that out. Some people rise to the occasion when the heat gets turned up while others wilt.

It’s time to see what Napier’s really got.

Missouri Preview

There’s a reason why the Gators are 11.5 point underdogs. Missouri is a really good team, especially when compared to Florida.

On the defensive side of the ball, there isn’t a stat where Missouri doesn’t outclass the Gators. Whether it’s points-per-game or yards-per-play, Missouri’s defense is vastly superior. That isn’t to say that Missouri is particularly good on that side of the ball. After all, ranking 52nd in the nation in yards-per-play allowed is worse than 40-percent of other FBS teams, but this is still a major advantage for the Tigers given Florida’s struggles on that side of the ball.

When the Florida defense is out on the field, there’s really only one stat I would follow to evaluate its performance: explosive plays. The Gators rank dead last in FBS in 40-plus yard plays allowed. They’ve given up 21 such plays (compared to 3 for Missouri) and are just getting gashed anytime they get out of position in even the slightest way.

The propensity to give up explosives has been a weakness for Austin Armstrong defenses for three seasons now, and we’ve seen it since the opening play of the season against Utah.

For Missouri, the place Florida has to attack is with the run. While Mizzou is 46th in the country in yards-per-rush and 49thh in yards-per-pass – and Florida has been stronger through the air this year – this is one game where Montrell Johnson, Trevor Etienne and Tre Wilson are going to have to play a role in the run game.

“Feed #2, Feed #7,” has been our mantra here all season, often to no avail. But Florida has to limit Missouri’s possessions to keep its defense off the field. While the defense has been bad all around recently, it has also worn down against Arkansas and LSU to a point where it just couldn’t get off the field.

On the offensive side of the ball, there also isn’t a stat where Missouri doesn’t outclass the Gators.

Florida’s rankings are in that good-but-not-great zone where Missouri’s defense lies, but Mizzou’s offense is bordering on elite. While 6.4 yards-per-play isn’t in the same league as LSU, it’s not that far off. Given what we saw last week from the Tigers, that is definitely concerning.

The Florida passing game has held up its end of the bargain this season. While I still think Graham Mertz needs to go down field more often, had you told me Florida would rank 43rd in yards-per-pass 10 games in, I would have thought Florida was scoring 40 points-per-game.

Of course, that would have been based on the Gators being an elite running team over the previous two seasons, which has just not materialized this year. Some of that is due to the departures of a running QB like Anthony Richardson or Emory Jones. But part of it is Florida goes away from the running game too quickly.

This season, Florida is averaging 35 pass attempts per game compared to 34 rushing attempts. But Mertz is averaging nearly 6 runs per game, which means the running backs are getting only 28 carries per game. Last season, Florida averaged 28 passes and 36 rushes per game. Many of those rushes went to Anthony Richardson and most of those were designed runs compared to this year where they are definitely not.

The result is that Florida’s offense, while 22nd in plays of 10-plus yards, is ranked 105th in plays of 30-plus yards. That’s a completely flip from last season when the Gators were 40th in plays of 10-plus yards but 18th in plays of 30-plus yards. This offense, while competent, just isn’t very explosive.

That’s not true for Missouri, who under new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, ranks 22nd in plays of 10-plus yards and 18th in plays of 30-plus yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Florida defense that has given up a bunch of those large chunk explosives.

In his preview over at Gators Breakdown, David Waters pointed out that Moore has accomplished that by moving star receiver Luther Burden into the slot. Waters cited Burden lining up there more than 80-percent of the time last year versus being there in the low teens last season. That means the matchup to watch may be what Armstrong does to counter burden being lined up there. Does he keep Jason Marshall and Jalen Kimber on the outside and guard Burden with STAR Jaydon Hill and linebacker help? Or does he move one of his (presumably) better cover corners inside and challenge Burden to win one-on-one?

Regardless of what he chooses, Armstrong is going to have to find a way to get to Missouri QB Brady Cook. After an underwhelming 2022, Cook has been very good this year. His QB rating of 160.7 is very good, as is his Yards Above Replacement (YAR) of 1.28. That isn’t elite like Jayden Daniels, but it’s better than Jake Fromm was putting up back in 2017 and 2018.

Mertz has been more efficient than most QBs Florida has faced this year, but that’s not true against Missouri. Cook has completed 68 percent of his passes compared to 73 percent for Mertz, and Mertz has a slightly lower QB rating (157.5). And because Mertz adds very little value on the ground, his YAR is at -0.26, or slightly below average.

Much of that is his propensity to take sacks (or his offensive line’s propensity to give them up). Florida ranks 115th in sacks per game allowed, giving up 3.1. Missouri is only giving up 1.9 sacks per game and its defense is getting 2.8, which ranks 19th in the country.

Takeaway

So what we have is a Missouri defense that has some holes, but is still an advantage because compared to Florida, it is a much better unit. We have a Missouri offense that is bordering on elite compared to a Florida offense that has been good, but can’t keep up in a shootout because it doesn’t make explosive plays consistently. And Missouri has a clear advantage at QB because of Cook’s ability to run the ball (2.1 yards per rush) compared to Mertz (-1.5) and Florida’s inability to keep their QB upright.

That means this game comes down to turnovers.

When you look at just about any upset, the underdog typically wins the turnover battle by at least two. That does mean Florida has a shot, as the Gators have been stingy this season, only giving the ball away 9 times. Unfortunately for the Gators, the Tigers have only given the ball away 9 times themselves.

That means Florida is going to have to force some. Whether that means sitting in zones and jumping routes (and risking giving up a big play) or just delivering hits that force Missouri to put the ball on the ground, Florida will need probably two turnovers cashed into touchdowns to pull this one off.

They’ll also have to be ultra-aggressive.

We saw last week where passivity gets them. With more than two minutes left in the half, Napier decided to run out the clock after a delay-of-game penalty. But then when Florida went three-and-out after halftime, they had squandered two possessions that might have helped them push ahead of LSU. Instead, Daniels led a quick touchdown drive and Florida was playing catchup.

The Gators even got one of the turnovers they needed on a flubbed kickoff return. When Florida cashed that for a touchdown, they were up 28-24, but the defense just wasn’t good enough to hold on.

So the formula should be much the same this week. Be ultra aggressive because you have to maximize every offensive possession. Run the ball not because it’s necessarily effective, but because it will hopefully help your defense still be fresh by the fourth quarter. And hope that Missouri turns the ball over enough that you’re able to jump out to an early lead and hold on for dear life (kind of like Arkansas in the Swamp two weeks ago).

Do I think it’s likely? Not really. But that’s part of why we love College Football is there are always upsets brewing. Missouri is 4-0 in one-score games this season, with its only real blowout win coming last week against Tennessee. That suggests they’ve been somewhat lucky and are probably more of a 6-4 team. We’ll see whether they can deal with all the praise that is coming their way now that they’re a top-10 team, and whether they make uncharacteristic mistakes because of it.

Florida will need it, because the Gators aren’t a good enough team to win a road game against a top-10 opponent without some help. And unfortunately, I don’t see that here either.

Missouri (-11.5) wins, 42-17.

Picks this season: 7-3 (4-5 ATS)