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Gators come up short against Missouri

Florida gave Missouri all it could handle on Saturday night, but once again the Gators came up short due to mistakes, conservative play calling and defensive ineptitude.

It’s hard to know what to feel about this one. It was certainly an entertaining game, at least right until the end. And Florida showed fight repeatedly, even as they made tons of mistakes. Couple that with coming back to retake the lead after starting QB Graham Mertz went down, and you could leave this game somewhat encouraged.

But yet again, Florida couldn’t get a stop when it really needed it. Yet again, Florida stalled after it’s opening drive of the first half on offense. And yet again, Billy Napier decided to run the ball and leave time on the clock for an opponent even though he has seen his defense before.

What it means is that Florida is now 5-6 and a loss to Florida State away from ending the season on a 5-game losing streak. It also means that for all the fight and moxie the team showed, it’s another conference loss.

This is an average team because it makes mistakes other don’t. We saw that again against Missouri.

The Fourth Down

Let me preface this by saying that I cannot properly diagnose what happened on this play without knowing the defensive and offensive play calls. This is such a discombobulated play – especially coming out of a time-out – that anyone who tells you they know what happened with 100-percent certainty is lying to you.

But here’s what I think happened, and it makes me feel even worse about the result. I don’t think Brady Cook was throwing the ball to Luther Burden.

The fourth-and-17 conversion was a huge gut punch when it happened (I was in a rental car watching at the time). But on rewatch to think that Missouri screwed up its play and still converted just makes it that much worse.

Just look at what every player did on the play.

I think Florida is in a match quarters defense. This is essentially where you have four men drop into deep zones (at the sticks) and then “match” anyone who moves from one zone to another. Jalen Kimber (#8) and Bryce Thornton (#18) do this well, as Kimber’s receiver stays in his zone and the receiver lined up across from Manny Nunnery (#34) runs a crosser into Thornton’s zone. Both receivers are covered.

But here’s where it gets squirely for me. Jason Marshall (#3) covers the outside receiver running a slant while Jaydon Hill (#23) appears to drop into a zone on the outside. At the same time, Nunnery (#34) releases the slot receiver to Thornton but doesn’t get a whole lot of depth after that. Jordan Castell (#14) drops way back and is never a factor on the play.

So why do I say that I don’t think this was a throw to Burden? Look at where he and Theo Wease (the outside receiver) end up: the exact same spot. You can see it if you watch from behind the play.

You don’t want two receivers in the same spot. Usually that leads multiple defenders into the area and leads to bad things for the offense. But here’s what I think happened. I think Burden saw Castell drop deep and realized there was a huge hole in the zone so he stopped his route. Cook was trying to hit Wease on his post after Burden cleared out the defenders but since Burden stopped, he was able to make the catch.

Is the problem with Florida’s defense that Castell dropped too deep, that Nunnery didn’t get enough depth, or that Marshall and Hill miscommunicated about who had who? I have no idea.

All I know is that because Florida only rushed four defenders and Missouri kept in the running back to chip Princely Umanmielen, Mizzou ran a four-man route against six defenders. Somehow Florida still managed to not guard their best receiver.

This is just the last in a long line of miscues that Florida has had when precision football has been needed. Could you have subbed a corner in for Nunnery since you’re dropping him into coverage? Should you have run a stunt up-front with T.J. Searcy (#19) when your goal is to get in Cook’s line of vision? Should anyone be dropping 15 yards behind the first down marker when a 20-yard completion is just as bad as getting beat deep?

Florida could have won this game if not for this play. They just couldn’t get out of their own way.

The Max Brown Experience

Back in March, I wrote about why I thought Billy Napier needed to find out what he had in Max Brown to call 2023 a successful season.

The reasoning was simple: Graham Mertz was a known quantity who had a defined floor but very limited upside. I based this not just on the Wisconsin stats and film, but on that he provided very little value on the ground. Here’s what I wrote at the time about Mertz.

“That would raise his QB rating to 154.7, which would have been top-25 in the country last season. I would propose that kind of season is what we should expect would be the absolute ceiling for Mertz and would constitute a success. The problem is that Mertz gives nothing in the running game, and so if we project 41 carries for -7 yards (his average over three years at Wisconsin), his YAR drops to -0.21.”

If Mertz is indeed out for the season, he finishes the season with a QB rating of 157.8 and a Yards Above Replacement – my proprietary stat that takes running and passing efficiency into account – of -0.21, exactly what I predicted.

Kudos to Napier and Mertz for reaching that ceiling. Certainly Mertz has been a valuable member of the team in 2023. Even a passable defense and Mertz’s performance would have achieved 7 or maybe even 8 wins for the Gators. But that’s not what Florida has.

Compare that to what I wrote at the time about Brown.

“Because we have zero college tape to base any analysis on, the variance in Brown’s play could be huge. The upside to that is that his floor is likely close to where you would expect Mertz or Miller to end up, and you’ve learned whether he’s a long-term solution at the position along the way.

But there’s also more that tilts the statistics towards Brown’s direction. He averaged 7.1 yards per rush in high school on 327 carries. You wouldn’t expect him to ever average less than a yard per carry as a starter, which over 41 carries would put his YAR above average (0.21) even in his worst-case scenario.”

We saw the power of Brown’s lets in the game against Missouri almost immediately, and it opened up the entire offense.

Florida’s down by nine and needs a big drive here. Missouri doesn’t yet know what Brown brings to the table and both the defensive end and the linebacker (circled) collapse to stop Etienne on this second-and-9 play. Brown outraces them both to the sideline for a first down to put Florida solidly in field goal range.

That set the stage for the touchdown later in the drive.

Tight end Hayden Hansen (#89) is pulling but doesn’t get over in time to block the defensive end (circled). If Mertz was in this game, that end is crashing to tackle Etienne and it might be a TFL. Instead, he protects against Brown keeping the ball and ends up whiffing on the tackle.

But that isn’t the only player who Brown gets out of position. Missouri safety Daylan Carnell (#13, arrow) is also very concerned about Brown. So much so that he vacates his gap and gives Etienne the easiest touchdown run he’s ever going to have.

So to summarize: Florida didn’t block the play particularly well but still had its running back end up in the end zone untouched. Such is the power of a running QB.

You could really see what this offense can be with a running QB on a play later in the game.

This is only a four-yard gain. But look at when I pause the play. If you’re a defender, who is going to get the ball? Brown, Etienne and Tre Wilson are all dangerous if it ends up in their hands. But look at the Missouri defense at the same time. They have 10 men within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Add a run-pass option (RPO) to Brown’s options either to Kahleil Jackson (#22) or Ricky Pearsall (#1) and you’ve got a favorable one-on-one matchup.

Brown is going to have to hit those one-on-ones, but they’re going to be there next week. We’ll see if he can take advantage now that the ‘Noles will have some film on him.

Gators Defense

I dedicated the first section to the fourth-down play, but I don’t think that says all that needs to be said about this Gators defense.

It is true that the Gators got a few stops in the first half, and it felt like a win every time Missouri settled for a field goal. But that was because Missouri was averaging 6.0 yards per play even though Brady Cook was playing poorly (4.3 yards per throw in the first half).

But by the end of the game, Florida had surrendered an average of 7.6 yards per play, continuing a streak of seven straight games where the Gators have given up more in that category than their opponent is averaging. It hasn’t been by a little bit either, as the Gators are giving up 1.6 more yards per play than their opponent average over that streak.

So why is that happening? The biggest thing I can point to is tackling.

Florida should be very familiar with this play. It is a flood concept that is a staple of their offense. They have it covered, but for some reason Jordan Castell (#14) comes off of the near target to rush the QB. That makes it an easy throw for Cook for a first down.

But that’s not where the play ends. Corner Ja’Keem Jackson (#2) does a good job of taking on his blocker and forcing the play back towards his help. His job is to keep the receiver from going down the sideline. Unfortunately for Florida, neither linebacker Derek Wingo (#15) or Teradja Mitchell (#20) takes a good angle and both miss the tackle.

But Florida still has hope. Jason Marshall (#3) is in the exact same situation as Jackson was with help from safety Bryce Thornton (#18) to help on the cut back towards the inside. But Marshall isn’t able to force the play back inside and even shields Thornton from getting to the receiver.

This play was devastating. Max Brown had just turned the ball over and on second-and-6, the Gators defense had covered the play perfectly halfway through. But then mistakes by every level of the defense turned what should have been a throwaway into the stands into a 77-yard TD pass.

And that’s really the story here. Austin Armstrong had the right call for this play, but the vast majority of his players did not execute well the entire way through. That’s really why this defense has played so poorly. It isn’t just a breakdown at one position. It’s breakdowns across the board.

Takeaway

We’re down to one (or hopefully two).

Billy Napier sits at 5-6 in his second season at the helm facing the distinct possibility of a very long offseason sitting on a five-game losing streak. For that future to become reality at home against the hated Seminoles just would add extra salt to the wound.

Perhaps the most disappointing moments of the last two games have been when Napier has decided to go conservative. Against LSU, he decided to sit on the ball at the end of the half instead of going for it, despite the knowledge that his defense was going to struggle to stop LSU. Against Missouri, he again sat on the ball and settled for a field goal instead of going for a first down and the ability to completely run down the clock at the end.

I hesitate to make every loss as it mounts a referendum on this team on a week-to-week basis. To hold them to expectations of Florida teams of past seems unfair given what we know and have seen. At the same time, the recurring themes are difficult to ignore.

We know what this squad is at this point, which is a deeply flawed team that makes too many mistakes.  But we also are getting a much better feel about who Napier is, which is a flawed game manager who too often defaults to conservatism when aggression would give his squad a better chance to win.

But we also know – and the Missouri game confirmed it – that this squad won’t quit. That will be important for the one or two games left on the schedule.

Florida is going to have some hiccups with Brown in as the starter now. That resilience is going to be important. That’s doubly true since Florida State is going to be without its starter at QB as well, after Jordan Travis unfortunately went down with a gruesome leg injury against North Alabama. The Gators were tormented by Travis running away from them on third downs last year, but that’s not backup Tate Rodemaker’s game (Maxpreps has him at 1.8 yards per rush on 85 carries in high school).

You never wish for an injury to anyone, but the injury to Travis turns what should have been an easy coronation for FSU into what is probably going to be a dog fight. That means Napier has one last chance to get the sixth win for bowl eligibility. He has one last chance to build momentum for 2024. He has one last chance to see what he has in Max Brown.

But perhaps more importantly, he has a chance to beat one of Florida’s main rivals and ruin their season that just a few days ago looked destined for a playoff appearance. When Napier arrived in Gainesville in late 2021, t-shirts emblazoned with, “Scared money don’t make money,” flew off the shelves.

Napier has one last chance in 2023 to live up to that slogan.