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Mistakes doom Gators against FSU

Well, that was the true Billy Napier experience. The Napier era at Florida has been marked by undisciplined play, poor execution in crunch time and penalties at the absolute worst times. Saturday’s loss to FSU had all of those in spades, along with a weird mish mash of aggressive and conservative play calling that leaves me scratching my head.

Make no mistake about it, Florida had every chance to win this game. Somehow the game was still scoreless when the game moved to the second quarter, even though the Gators outgained the ‘Noles 103 to -7 in the first quarter. And even though they only had 34 offensive yards in the second half, the Gators still had their chances if they could have gotten off the field just one more time.

But as has been true of the past two years, Florida couldn’t make the play when they needed it. Whether it was a pass interference call, an inability to create a turnover or an unnecessary targeting call, the Gators under Billy Napier continually find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

It’s easy from your couch to say that Napier needs time, and intellectually, I agree that is true. At the same time, I just walked out of the Swamp having to hear that infernal war chant from fans who should have been walking out of the stadium with their tails between their legs after a loss.

That’s a tough pill to swallow.

Aggressive, wait…conservative

If there’s one thing that has confused me about the Billy Napier era, it’s the way he constantly changes his approach, even within games.

I lauded him last year against Tennessee for not deviating from his initial approach of being aggressive and outlined in that article how he put Florida in a position to win the game by taking that approach and being consistent. The takeaway for me from that game was that Napier was going to pre-decide his level of aggression and not deviate in-game. To me, that’s a sign of good process.

That’s the last time I can remember thinking that and I certainly don’t think that after this game.

For instance, Florida got the ball in ‘Noles territory up 12-0 after a safety with 5:02 left in the second quarter. Just sit on the ball and you likely go into the half up 12-0. Pop a run and you go into the half up 15 or 19. Instead, Florida called a double reverse pass that turned into an intentional grounding penalty and were punting the ball back to FSU just a minute later.

I don’t have a problem with the reverse call in a vacuum. Napier was going for the kill shot while the Gators had “momentum.” The problem I have is that he played the rest of the game super conservatively. If he really wanted to go for the kill, he could have gone for it when he was up seven points and had fourth-and-1 at the FSU 17-yard line. Or he could have gone for it when Florida got a huge run from Montrell Johnson after FSU had saved them time on the clock by calling timeout just before halftime. Or he could have allowed Max Brown to throw the ball more than three times in the third quarter.

I tweeted this from the stadium when Napier decided to kick the field goal on that fourth down.

7-0 good guys! Big hole opened up for the Johnson TD. pic.twitter.com/ozboybLugW

— Will Miles (@WillMilesSEC) November 26, 2023

In real-time, I suspected analytics would hate the decision and I was right. The CFB 4th down bot has the decision costing Florida more than a 3 percent chance of winning. But I had seen Tate Rodemaker struggle to begin the game as well. You could make the argument – I don’t think it’s right, but you can make it – that being ultra conservative and forcing Rodemaker to beat you is the right call.

But then why the double reverse?

What that suggests to me is that Napier’s aggression ebbs and flows with his feel of the game. He isn’t making decisions based on analytics or some process, but rather based on things like momentum that feel real, but don’t actually win games consistently over time. It’s a deviation from good process.

Nowhere was the distinction between the two coaches more visible than the opening drives of the second half.

Florida State got the ball to start the second half and immediately faced a third-and-10 from their own 25-yard line. Fans (and perhaps more importantly, color commentators) would not have blamed FSU head coach Mike Norvell for having Rodemaker hand off to Trey Benson and punt the ball to Florida. Instead, Norvell trusted his QB.

Florida State shifts Jaheim Bell into the slot. Florida’s defense doesn’t move at all, which tells Rodemaker that the Gators are going to be in a zone. It also tells him (and the ‘Noles offensive line) that the Gators aren’t going to blitz. That’s exactly what happens as Florida brings linebacker Manny Nunnery (#34) to rush the QB but drops edge T.J. Search (#19) into coverage.

Florida can’t get to Rodemaker who has plenty of time to find receiver Johnny Wilson over the middle. Wilson got linebacker Derek Wingo (#15) to turn his hips and defensive back Jaydon Hill (#23) was late getting over, as it looks like he was worried there was a deeper throw coming. This isn’t an uncommon thing to have happen against the zone, but it does illustrate how FSU wasn’t scared to put the ball in Rodemaker’s hands.

Contrast that to the Gators on their opening drive of the second half. FSU had just gashed the Gators defense on two straight drives to go up 14-12. It was pretty clear that the Gators defense wasn’t going to hold up for the entire game, even though they acquitted themselves quite well. Florida had first-and-10 at the FSU 23-yard line and proceeded to run Tre Wilson on a reverse for a yard, Montrell Johnson for two yards, and then this.

This is a called QB draw. And at the snap, the play looks open as I’ve drawn the lines that makes it look like Brown is going to have a lane to make the run. But FSU defensive tackle Malcolm Ray (#99) swims inside at the snap. Not only does that occupy the rushing lane, but it also completely blows up the play as he easily beats right guard Micah Mazzccua.

If you watch the play closely, you’ll see that the Florida State safety responsible for wide receiver Kahleil Jackson (#22) immediately charges when Brown looks to run. This was something Florida could have explored but didn’t (i.e. the Tebow jump pass).

I get that Napier didn’t trust his offensive line at that point. That was emphasized further on the final drive when Florida had to pass and his line was getting knocked back into Brown. We saw it earlier on a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line where Brown was immediately sacked.

Again, I’m okay with the conservative play call in a vacuum. But you can’t tell me you’re worried about your offensive line holding up in enemy territory while also calling that double reverse pass. We talk all the time about consistency from the players on the field, but that theme extends to the coaches calling the plays as well.

Discipline Issues

When Florida played Georgia earlier this year, the Bulldogs were up 26-7 going into halftime and Kirby Smart made a point to call out offensive lineman Xavier Truss for getting an offsetting personal foul during his national television interview. Smart said “we have a mission, a team and a me. He put me over the mission and the team.”

That’s all I could think of when Florida gave up 15 yards for spitting on the opposition on Florida State’s first touchdown drive. It crossed my mind again when Florida’s punt team was called for a personal foul on a punt that Ricky Pearsall caught near mid-field that forced Florida to start the drive at its own 30. And of course, it definitely crossed my mind again when Jaydon Hill hit Rodemaker as the FSU QB went into his slide for a targeting call that extended FSU’s final touchdown drive.

How do you go 5-7 and 1-3 in one-score games? You give your opponent 90 yards on penalties, which both flipped field position multiple times but also gave first downs to an offense that was struggling to get them (FSU went 4-14 on third down).

The same is true when we talk about special teams. There is the aforementioned penalty on the punt in addition to the two missed field goals. Discipline further pops up when you consider that both missed field goals were hindered by the play before where Florida lost yardage, one on a pass to Etienne where he tried to do too much and another on a holding call.

I’d even put Napier’s decision-making into the discipline category. Florida has been absolutely ravaged in the last four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half during the Napier era. That continued against FSU as the ‘Noles scored 14 straight points while Florida missed a field goal during that period.

That missed field goal is perhaps the best example I can think of when it comes to coaching discipline. Florida got the ball with 26 seconds left and Montrell Johnson was stopped for a loss of one yard, after which FSU called timeout. Johnson then popped a 52-yard run that put Florida in scoring position with 14 seconds left at the FSU 24-yard line.

Napier clearly was trying to run the clock out and got fortunate that Johnson hit a big run. But once that happened, there was an opportunity to be aggressive and try to get the ball into the end zone. The downside (a turnover) is limited because there’s so little time on the clock. But based on the time and timeout situation, running the ball with Johnson on the next play was more about bleeding the clock and ensuring a field goal than of trying to answer right back with a touchdown to end the half.

Takeaway

Whenever a new coach takes over a program, there are a bunch of questions they need to answer. How are they going to recruit? Will the players buy-in and will the coaches be able to command the locker room? Will they be able to scheme for opponents in a way that gives their team an advantage? Will they be able to develop players to their full potential?

After two years at the helm, we have a lot of data to suggest we know the answers to a bunch of those questions regarding Napier and his army. On the recruiting front, things look good assuming a good finish to the 2024 class. So does buy-in front, given the level of fight the team has shown in the past two games.

But from a schematic perspective – especially on game day – the staff currently leaves a lot to be desired. They go back and forth about what the right approach is, and while there is a lot of talk about process, it often feels like there are holes in process logic on game day.

And perhaps more importantly, there is a difference between players wanting to play hard for a head coach and fearing the wrath of a head coach. Good players want to feel that wrath, because that’s what gets you to the next level. They also want to feel it because it breeds a culture of accountability that ensures your teammates are doing the right thing too.

A lot is made of Bill Belichick’s mantra, “do your job.” It’s a call to process oriented thinking and making decisions before you encounter a situation because that takes the emotion out of the decision-making process. That would be a good place for Napier and Company to evaluate during the offseason.

But the other major evaluation era is the thing I think is often missed in discussion of those Patriot teams. Seth Wickersham’s book about Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that discusses the Patriots championship run is titled, “It’s better to be feared.” It details relationships that Belichick has soured because of his relentless commitment to winning and alludes to some that have soured on Brady as well.

I don’t doubt that there are multiple ways to win. And I have to admit that I left my reading of that book wondering whether torching relationships just to win was worth it. But I also came away thinking that part of what made those people who they are was the fear they instilled in others who came across their path.

Steve Spurrier was affable with the media, but ask any QB who played for him whether they feared him when they made a mistake….or how many mistakes they got to make before another guy was getting a chance to do their job.

We just saw in Swamp Kings how Brandon Siler drove that 2006 team in the weight room and in the locker room. The enduring memory for me from that documentary is Siler saying, “You go out, and when it’s time for you to make the tackle, you make the fucking tackle.” You think other defenders didn’t fear that guy?

The Gator players may love Billy Napier. They may respect Billy Napier. But given what we saw against Florida State on Saturday night – and what we’ve seen throughout the season – they don’t fear him. That’s going to have to change in 2024.

Or who’s in charge will change after next season.

Thanksgiving and Gator Games

As I said in my preview article, I went to the game with my 8-year old son, Max. We had a great time, attending tailgates all day and then cheering for the Gators the entire time.

I have four kids. As they are getting older, I’m reminded of how fleeting opportunities for three hours uninterrupted with them is (9 hours if you count the tailgating). To me, that’s going to be the enduring legacy of college football in my life. It’s not the wins or the championships, though those are definitely great. It’s sharing those experiences with the people who are important to me.

I was talking about that with my mother on the way home from the game. Max and I had a great time, and I’m sure this will be a memory he and I always share. But the true value of college football is that every year we get to reestablish those memories even as both of us grows a year older. Right now, Max wants to do everything with me. When he’s a teenager, I have no doubt that desire will significantly wane, if not disappear altogether. And we’re very different people. I wonder what we’ll talk about when he’s 30.

But my sincere hope is that the seeds planted as he Gator chomped relentlessly and screamed every time Rodemaker took a snap blossom into something we can spend time doing, even if he doesn’t want me around as a teen, or even if we have a disagreement when he’s 30. That in the times where we struggle to know what to say to each other, we can always find a reason to have a conversation, even if it’s about something as insignificant big picture as college football.

My trip to Gainesville during this Thanksgiving Holiday has reminded me of so many things I have to be thankful for. I’m thankful for Nick Knudsen’s friendship and guidance behind the scenes that makes this website better, as well as the healthy arrival of his son. I’m thankful for “Gator Dave” Waters who has invited me onto his platform and become a great friend along the way. I’m thankful for all of the friends I’ve made at the tailgates or through this website and the relationships that have been forged through the past decade of relative futility. And I’m particularly thankful for my mother and father, who have provided a baseline of love and belief that has helped me thrive, and a home-base in Gainesville to gather in-season.

But I’m also really thankful for those three hours. And as the book closes on the 2023 season, it reminds me that every year there is hope. It reminds me that “wait ‘til next year” has real meaning when you’re going to spend next year with the people you love. And that there are conversations worth having and the value of this sport is that the starting point of those conversations may just be that pass interference call or the boneheaded fourth down decision. Or hopefully, the 70-yard touchdown to win it.

We’re going to be doing some cool things at Read & Reaction this offseason. Check us out on Patreon to see what we’re up to, or to go deeper into that conversation. And then let’s get ready.

Miami’s only nine months away.