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This is why Florida’s defense has been so bad recently

The question I get asked the most is whether I think Florida’s defense will improve in 2024. While the answer to that question is “yes”, I think understanding why that’s not just wishful thinking requires that we examine why Florida’s defense has been so awful for the past four years.

You might think calling the defense awful is overkill, but I would submit to you that 1) that would mean you haven’t watched the defense play and 2) you’re ignoring a pretty damning statistical record. Here’s where Florida’s defense ranks in the SEC over the past four seasons:

You’re not going to win a lot of games when your defense consistently ranks in the bottom half of the conference, regardless of what you do on offense. Of course, that leads to the natural question of why those stats are the way they are. To examine that, I think it’s helpful to look at the teams that have excelled in the SEC on that side of the ball.

Top-5 SEC Defenses

Six teams have accomplished a top-5 SEC scoring defense in the past four seasons: Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee. Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M have made the top-5 all four years, Kentucky and Auburn have made it three times and the Vols have made it twice.

So the question I wanted to ask is, if you break things down to the individual position level, is there a trend for these teams that play consistently well on that side of the ball? The answer appears to be yes.

The above chart is the average Pro Football Focus rankings for the top three players at each position (Defensive line, Edge, Linebacker, Safety and Corner) in seasons where the team achieved a top-5 SEC defense. When you plot things that way, two things become clear pretty quickly.

First, to have a dominant defense, you do need to be good all the way across the board except at linebacker. Georgia has the best defense by more than four points per game allowed, and the Bulldogs also have excellent rankings across the board at every position group. Alabama is second best, and the one place the Tide have struggled is at the linebacker position.

But the second thing you might notice is that you don’t need great defensive line play or linebacker play to have a top-5 defense. In fact, average for these positions is usually somewhere around 67-68, which means that you can get away with below average play on the line and at linebacker. But it becomes pretty clear that you can’t get away with that at corner, safety or edge.

Application to Florida

So what does this mean for Florida? Well, let’s look at the same chart for the Gators over the past four seasons. Note that the cells in the chart below are shaded with the same gradient as the SEC chart above.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out where Florida has struggled. Outside of the edge position, the Gators have struggled everywhere at some point. In 2020, that meant defensive line, linebacker, safety and corner. Defensive line play improved in 2021, 2022 and 2023, but play at linebacker, safety and corner has still been lacking.

Now, given the analysis up above for top-5 defenses, linebacker is certainly a problem, but I’m pretty sure that it’s not THE problem. Interpreting the data this way suggests it is the position that can move a defense from very good to elite but isn’t necessary to move into the top-5. To drive that point home, 15 times in the past four seasons a top-5 SEC defense has had an average linebacker rating of less than 65 compared to 4 times for defensive line, 3 times for edge, once for corner and zero for safety.

And therein lies the issue for Florida. The Gators have had a rating at corner or safety below 65 five times in the past four seasons. Not coincidently, the Gators have ranked 8th, 11th, 8th and 10th in the SEC in 20+ yard plays allowed over those seasons.

The Good News

I actually think this bodes well for Florida’s defense in 2024. Beyond the addition of Ron Roberts as head coach of the defense (whatever that means), Florida has also added significantly to the back end of its defense.

Washington transfer safety Asa Turner had a PFF grade of 72.4 last season (243 snaps), 67.5 in 2022 (595 snaps) and 75.6 in 2021 (387 snaps). Even if he just plays at his 2022 level, that’s a significant upgrade at safety from Florida’s 62.4 rankings in 2023 and there’s a chance he plays way better than that.

Tulane transfer safety D.J. Douglas had a PFF grade of 70.7 last season at Tulane in 652 snaps. Again, we’re talking about a significant upgrade given what Florida had out on the field in 2023.

And Oregon transfer cornerback Trikweze Bridges joins the fold as well. Bridges struggled in 2023 (63.6 PFF ranking in 204 snaps) but was really good in 2022 (76.4 in 704 snaps). We would obviously like Bridges to be more his 2022 self than his 2023 one, but given Jaydon Hill’s metrics in 2023 (63.9 PFF rating in 533 snaps), Florida is getting at least replacement level with a higher upside.

But perhaps the most important thing to monitor will be the development of safety Jordan Castell. Last year as a true freshman, Castell posted a PFF grade of 75.6 in 660 snaps. There were some significant highs (87.5 vs. Tennessee, 82.9 vs. Arkansas) and some definite lows (51.7 vs. South Carolina, 50.5 vs. Missouri). Just eliminating those lows means Florida is pairing an elite safety with two transfers who will play at an above average level.

Takeaway

Florida’s defense is going to have to improve if the Gators are going to survive their brutal 2024 schedule. The data suggests the areas they need to improve the most are corner and safety. This isn’t a Patrick Toney thing, or an Austin Armstrong thing, or even a Todd Grantham thing. This is a Florida Gators thing, as the Gators have not shown good performance at those two positions for the past four seasons.

Would improved play at linebacker from Grayson Howard and Shemar James help with a big boost from either Myles Graham or Aaron Chiles? Absolutely. Does Florida need Justus Boone to step up with continued development from T.J. Searcy, Kelby Collins and some flashes from L.J. McCray given the departure of Princely Umanmielen? Sure.

But whether this defense can turn things around is going to come down to the back end. That means significant contributions from Castell, Bridges, Turner and Douglas. It also means continued development from Bryce Thornton, Dijon Johnson and Ja’Keem Jackson. And perhaps it’s going to mean instant impact from Alabama flip Jameer Grimsley.

But make no mistake, the fortunes of Florida’s defense will fall on success at the corner and safety position, just like it has for SEC defenses for the past four years.