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Gators pick up transfer WR Elijhah Badger

With the transfer of Arizona State wide receiver Elijhah Badger, Billy Napier has filled a big hole on the offensive side of the ball.

Ricky Pearsall was a huge contributor last season. After averaging 20 yards per catch in 2022 on 33 receptions, Pearsall upped his game in 2023 with 65 catches for an average of 14.8 yards per catch. Given some of the limitations in how far downfield the Gators were willing to throw the ball, that was a significant uptick in performance.

Until the Badger commitment, there wasn’t any clear-cut replacement in the Pearsall spot. That means that Tre Wilson – who is going to be the most electric player on the field in 2024 – probably would have had to spend some time in Pearsall’s spot out of necessity.

Wilson may still spend some time out there, but with Badger’s addition that means Florida will be able to do that strategically. I have an entire section in our 2024 Read & Reaction Preview Magazine that outlines how dangerous Wilson can be when you move him all over the field. Badger allows that to happen.

Tre Wilson was perhaps the most electric player on the field, but Pearsall was the dependable one who made the big first down and also served as a deep threat. The addition of Badger has multiple effects on the offense. Not only is he a good player (we’ll get to that in a minute), but bringing in Without a direct replacement for Pearsall, Florida might have had to put Wilson in that Pearsall role, but that isn’t the case now.

So what is Florida getting in new wide receiver Elijhah Badger?

The Stats

Badger is a senior who has caught 135 balls the past two seasons. His 2022 season (70 catches, 866 yards) was slightly better than his 2023 season (65 catches, 713 yards), but Arizona State has had a lot of turnover at the QB position, so to be a main target like that two years in a row says a lot.

Perhaps you noticed that the average yards per reception for Badger those two years was 12.4 and 11.0. This isn’t necessarily a knock on him, but it does suggest that expecting him to be a direct replacement for Pearsall (20 and 15 yards per reception the past two seasons) is wishful thinking.

Still, Pearsall had a Pro Football Focus (PFF) rating of 77.2 last season while Badger has had PFF ratings of 76.7 and 76.1 the past two seasons. That says that they are being asked to do different things, but that both are executing at a high level (a PFF ranking of ~68 is average at the WR position).

There is one area of concern to call out: Arizona State was better last season when Badger wasn’t on the field.

According to stats courtesy Sports Info Solutions, Badger ranked 155th of all Power-5 receivers in expected points added (EPA) per target at 0.011. For frame of reference, Ricky Pearsall ranked 21st (0.473 EPA per target) and Tre Wilson ranked 28th (0.441 EPA per target). That sort of stat translates, as Florida was 0.190 EPA per play better when Pearsall was on the field and 0.130 EPA per play better when Wilson was on the field, but Arizona State was actually 0.100 EPA per play worse when Badger was on the field.

Fortunately, there’s also an easy way to explain that.

Pearsall and Wilson both had a much higher percentage of Boom plays (plays > 1.0 EPA) than Badger and a much lower percentage of Bust plays (plays < -1.0 EPA). But if we look at the type of passes Badger was catching, it becomes clear why that is. He was targeted 102 times in 2023 and 32 percent of those targets were screens. This is directly reflective of the issues at QB that Arizona State had last year.

We know this because in 2022 Badger had an EPA per target of 0.229 with a significantly higher boom percentage and lower bust percentage when the number of screens coming his way went down (14%). Now, a 0.229 EPA per target is not Pearsall (0.473), but it does suggest that Badger can bring significant value when allowed to run down the field. Indeed, the on/off stats that I brought up earlier were quite favorable to Badger in 2022, as Arizona State was 0.150 EPA per play better when he was on the field than when he was not.

Takeaway

Badger is a big addition, but he isn’t a complete replacement for what Florida’s losing. Pearsall was a better player over the past two years, and asking Badger to replace him one-for-one is unfair.

Fortunately, the Gators have two senior wide receiver transfers when you combine Badger with Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike. Dike has a similar story to Badger, as he had an EPA per target of 0.306 in 2022 with Graham Mertz as his QB that dropped to 0.126 in 2023.

If Florida gets 2022 production from both Dike and Badger, that will free up Tre Wilson to be the Swiss army knife that he was last year, and continue to allow Billy Napier to use Wilson to get personnel advantages against the defense by lining him up at running back, in the slot and out wide.

But if Florida gets 2023 production from both Dike and Badger, Wilson is going to be asked to carry a load that is likely to diminish his ability to dictate to the defense. Instead, Florida will have to put him out wide to draw attention away from lesser players who step into the role he played last season.

That’s what’s at stake with the acquisition of these two transfers. They’re experienced (2429 snaps the last two years) and Dike has familiarity with Mertz. They both have proven against Power-5 opponents that they can get the job done at times.

Whether they can put it all together in 2024 is going to go a long way towards determining whether the Gators offense is slightly above average or truly explosive.