2024 Preseason Magazine is out!
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Just a reminder, but Father’s Day is coming up on June 16. Do any of you have fathers who are into the Gators but you never know what to get them? What about a sibling who’s a UF graduate/fan who’s really difficult to buy for? THIS is the gift for that person. Here’s a little bit of what’s inside:
- What does Lamar Jackson have to do with Billy Napier’s job security?
- What stat for Florida’s defense was such an outlier that we should expect it to get way better?
- Film study – how does Billy Napier get Tre Wilson open?
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If you order a digital copy, you can have it on your screen 5 minutes from now. If you order from Amazon, you can have it there in a day or two. Thank you! And now…on to an article that we cut from the magazine because we didn’t have room.
Why the Gators defense will be better in 2024
In the leadup to the 2023 season, I remember saying (and writing) over and over, “Florida’s defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was in 2022.”
I said this because historically, college football defenses are never that bad two years in a row. I said this because Florida’s talent level was such that we would normally expect a huge rebound for that unit. And I said that because Florida had made a change at defensive coordinator, with promises that the team would be more technically sound.
Boy, was I wrong.
By most metrics, Florida’s defense was absolutely putrid again in 2023. And while the Gators got more out of Graham Mertz than we could have hoped, without Jayden Daniels winning the Heisman Trophy to offset the defense, the Gators struggled to a 5-7 record. So why should 2024 be any different?
On/Off Metrics
If we include Oklahoma and Texas in the list, Florida was 14th in the SEC in expected points added (EPA) per play last season at 0.048 (the average in the SEC was -0.04, and lower is better).
But Florida’s starters on defense had an EPA per play of 0.064, meaning the backups actually played at a higher level than the starters. That’s always going to lead to disaster.
SIS has some great data that compares how a team plays when a player is on the field vs. when a player is off the field. These on/off metrics aren’t perfect, but by looking at the difference we can start to get a feel for which players or combination of players struggled and which ones brought value to the defense.
For example, if we look at the Gators defense with Jason Marshall on the field (0.03 EPA per play), that isn’t much better than what Florida averaged for the year. But Florida’s EPA per play increased to 0.18 with Marshall off the field, meaning whatever you think of Marshall’s play in 2023, replacing him with someone else did not lead to success.
Looking at that table leads us to a few conclusions. First, Florida only had three starters who truly seemed to make a difference and they’re all back this year (Caleb Banks, Shemar James and Marshall). Second, Florida could use some help on the defensive line. The good news is T.J. Searcy (EPA/play difference of 0.1) and Kelby Collins (0.04) earned Freshman All-SEC honors for a reason.
But what about 2024’s projected starters? This is where the transfer portal and players returning from injury looms large in a good way.
For example, just having a fully healthy Shemar James and the return of Justus Boone to his 2022 level of play is a huge upgrade over snaps that went to Manny Nunnery or Princely Umanmielen. Add to that Derek Wingo or Pup Howard stepping into starting roles and the linebacker corps looks to be much improved.
But the place where Florida emphasized the most in personel acquisition – and improved the most – is the secondary. I think we all believe Jordan Castell is poised to take a next step after playing a ton of snaps as a true freshman. Combine that with a healthy Devin Moore (fingers crossed), similar play from Jason Marshall and then good play from either Asa Turner or D.J. Douglas and the Gators should see significant improvement.
But beyond just individual improvements at a particular position, look at all the green on the second table compared to the first. As much as a lock-down corner can have a huge impact, none of that matters if the defense can’t stop the run to put the offense in a third-and-long situation. Just given these numbers, the Gators defense should have a lot more balance this year than it has in a while.
Takeaway
Big picture, what does all of this mean?
Well, Florida surrendered 6.5 yards per play last season. If we look at 2021 (16 teams) and 2022 (10 teams) for teams that surrendered that much yardage, 24 out of 26 teams (92%) got better the next year with an average improvement of 0.92 yards per play. Were Florida to experience that kind of improvement, the Gators would be looking at a top-60 defense.
If we expand that to teams that gave up an average of 6.0 yards per play in 2021 or 2022, 46 out of 53 teams improved (87%) with an average improvement of 0.64 yards per play.
This points out that Florida’s defense being bad for two years in a row is probably the outlier, rather than an expectation of improvement. Based on recent CFB history, we should expect the defense to improve, not necessarily to a championship level, but at least to an average one.
Combine that with the additions the Gators have made through the transfer portal and you have a recipe for a significant jump. And if Devin Moore, Jameer Grimsley, Cormani McClain or any other addition can move from average/good to elite, there’s a world where everyone is singing Austin Armstrong’s and Ron Roberts’ praises by the end of the year as the Gators defense proves to be a strength for the first time in years.
For those of us who’ve watched the missed tackles, missed assignments and inability to get off the field for the past four seasons, any improvement will be a welcome change. The good news is that based on history, Florida’s defense should be better.
And based on some of the underlying stats, the Gators defense could be significantly better.