Miami vs. Florida Preview – Part 1
Welcome to the 2024 College Football season!
As Florida State proved in Dublin against Georgia Tech, most of the prognosticators have zero idea what’s going to actually happen. Of course, that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun trying to figure it out.
I’ve gotten feedback that sometimes my previews can be a bit…..comprehensive. So for Miami week (and maybe the entire year) at Read & Reaction, I’m going to be trying something a little bit different. We’re going to roll out different portions of the game previews every day this week, focusing on the big picture (Monday), the QBs (Tuesday), the key matchup (Wednesday) and the prediction (Thursday). If you like getting my articles and digesting all at once, you can still do so on Thursday as per normal, but I’d love to hear whether dividing things up is helpful/preferred.
Also, if you like our type of analysis, there’s a lot more in our 2024 Florida Preseason Magazine. You can get a digital copy in your inbox in 5 minutes if you buy the pdf version, and you can have a hard copy in two days if you order on Amazon!
2023 Seasons in Review
The Gators and Hurricanes have obviously had a bunch of changes since last year. But that doesn’t mean the 2023 stats can just be thrown out the window. That’s because understanding where a team excelled or where they struggled along with who is coming in and going out helps us to understand whether they filled the holes that were on the roster last year.
The Hurricanes went 7-6 last season, but that record is a little bit deceiving.
First, Miami lost a ridiculous game to Georgia Tech where all they had to do was kneel on the ball at the end and inexplicably ran the ball (and fumbled). It still counts in the win/loss column, but the odds of something like that happening again are next-to-none. That was part of Miami going 2-4 in one-score games.
The reality is that the 2023 Hurricanes were an 8-4 team based on scoring differential that went 7-5 because of the loss to the Yellow Jackets.
You can sort-of say the same thing about the Gators 2023 season. That Gators team only played three one-score games, but lost two of them, including killers against Arkansas and Missouri that in a kinder world would have both been wins. The result was that the 2023 Gators were a 6-6 team based on scoring differential that went 5-7 because of some bad luck (and a missed field goal and terrible 4th down conversion allowed).
But here is where the first problem for Gators fans shows up. The Hurricanes were two wins better overall and via score differential. That means the Gators had to close a 2-win gap over the offseason to make this game competitive.
2023 Stats
So where were the Hurricanes better in 2023? The answer – unfortunately – is pretty much everywhere.
If we start with the offense, we see that Miami was better overall in yards per play gained and yards per rush gained and were pretty close to the Gators in yards per pass attempt.
Florida vs. Miami offenses in 2023. (Will Miles/Read & Reaction)
The result is that Florida finished 68th in points per play at 0.38 compared to the 32nd ranked Hurricanes (0.44).
The story is even more grim on defense. There the Hurricanes beat the Gators significantly in all three categories, and it isn’t even close.
Florida vs. Miami defenses in 2023. (Will Miles/Read & Reaction)
Notice how Miami gave up as many yards per play as Florida gave up yards per rush….woof. The result is that the Gators allowed an average of 0.47 points per play (114th) while Miami stood at 49th (0.37).
The Florida defense was truly terrible last year, and while it should improve significantly in 2024 for a lot of different reasons, it is going to have to come a long, long way to get to Miami’s level.
Transfer Portal Reinforcements
Miami brought in 15 players in the transfer portal this season compared to 16 for the Gators. The difference is that the Hurricanes are relying on the portal for starters (10) way more than the Gators have are (6).
Florida brought in two wide receivers (Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike) to help replace the departing Ricky Pearsall, along with Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson at right tackle, Joey Slackman at defensive line, Grayson Howard at linebacker and Asa Turner at safety. There are other players of note Florida brought in too, but those six are likely to make the biggest impacts.
Miami has 10 players Mario Cristobal brought in through the portal expected to start. That includes a revamped defensive line with DT Simeon Barrow, Jr., DE Elijah Alston and NT C.J. Clark. It also includes three players in the secondary with CB D’Yoni Hill, safety Isaiah Taylor and nickelback Mishael Powell.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Hurricanes welcome wide receiver Sam Brown, running back Damien Martinez, center Zach Carpenter and, of course, QB Cam Ward (more on him Tuesday).
That’s a lot of turnover for a team that only lost four players to the NFL Draft, three of whom were selected in the seventh round. Replacing three quarters of a defensive line and three fifths of the secondary means that cohesion of those units may be lacking, especially early in the season in an environment like the Swamp.
We also have seen that the transfer portal isn’t a panacea for losing players. Neither team has to look too far (cough, Florida State, cough) to see a great example of that.
Talent/Recruiting
Taking a four-year look back at recruiting for these two programs is imperfect because both coaches are heading into their third seasons as head coach. That means it probably makes more sense to look back three years to look at overall talent and numbers.
If we do that, it’s pretty clear that the Hurricanes have an advantage here.
Florida vs Miami Recruiting 2022-2024. (Will Miles/Read & Reaction)
Over the past three recruiting cycles, Miami has five more commits, nearly a six-spot lead in the overall rankings, a 0.9 point edge in average player ranking, and three more elite (i.e. 5-star players). That recruiting puts Miami close to programs like LSU from a recruiting perspective, and the Gators haven’t had a whole lot of luck against the Tigers recently (lost 5 in a row and 9 of 11).
Of course, none of those games have been blowouts. Even the Joe Burrow-led Tigers struggled to put away Florida in 2019 when Kyle Trask was just getting his feet wet as a starter. So while Miami may have brought in more talent overall in the past three seasons, that doesn’t automatically portend an easy win for the ‘Canes.
Additionally, 247Sports ranks talent on every roster coming into the year, and the Gators and Hurricanes are basically dead-even in those rankings. Florida is slightly ahead (90.09 average player rating) compared to Miami (89.65), but where the elite players are in their careers and where they play makes this a dead heat.
Miami has five 5-star recruits on the roster, and two of those guys are going to be starting on the offensive line on Saturday (LT Francis Mauigoa and RG Samson Okunlola). Florida has four 5-star recruits on its roster and only corner Jason Marshall, Jr. is expected to see major playing time this weekend.
Takeaway
These are two teams that are relatively close in talent overall, but there’s not doubt that the Hurricanes were the better team in 2023. Of course, Miami has also decided to supplement some shortcomings via the transfer portal, and how quickly those guys can gel in a hostile environment in game one is a major question.
The Gators have addressed many of their issues, particularly on defense, through the transfer portal. Florida should be a better team in 2024 than it was in 2023, but the questions here are 1) has Florida improved more than the two games that separated these teams last year and 2) has Miami improved from where it was in 2023 to a point where Florida has even more catching up to do?
The answer to that question falls squarely on Washington State transfer Cam Ward and Florida sixth-year senior Graham Mertz at the QB position, which is what we’ll examine Tuesday in Part 2 of the Miami/Florida preview!
James Miller
Do you factor in strength of schedule last year? Would the Gators have had a different result playing in the ACC? Clemson was the only team Miami beat last year who ended up ranked in the top 25.
Clyde
Comparing Florida to Miami statistically has a limited scope. The schedule each team played in 2023 must become part of your analysis. Of Florida’s 2023 opponents, where did those teams finish? What about the Canes’ foes? What were their respective foes’ combined W-L records? How did that breakdown between Power 4/5 and Group of 5 teams? And how many off those opponents’ rosters were drafted by the NFL? I believe you’ll find that the Gators’ 5-7 season was a good bit more challenging.
Mike scott
With the toughest schedule in the country the gators are going to have their 4 th straight losing season
Mark
“The Hurricanes were two wins better overall and via score differential. That means the Gators had to close a 2-win gap over the offseason to make this game competitive.”
That seems like a pretty simplistic analysis, especially when the schedules were not remotely similar in difficulty (4th hardest for UF vs. 61st hardest for UM). Am I missing something? It doesn’t seem like the stat you mentioned controlled for that at all.
How do you think UM would have fared against UGA or LSU last year? It sure would have helped us earn some more wins to trade those games for GT and Boston College.