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Miami vs. Florida Preview – Part 2

I’ve gotten feedback that sometimes my previews can be a bit…..comprehensive. So for Miami week (and maybe the entire year) at Read & Reaction, I’m going to be trying something a little bit different. We’re going to roll out different portions of the game previews every day this week, focusing on the big picture (Monday), the QBs (Tuesday), the key matchup (Wednesday) and the prediction (Thursday). If you like getting my articles and digesting all at once, you can still do so on Thursday as per normal, but I’d love to hear whether dividing things up is helpful/preferred.

Also, if you like our type of analysis, there’s a lot more in our 2024 Florida Preseason Magazine. You can get a digital copy in your inbox in 5 minutes if you buy the pdf version, and you can have a hard copy in two days if you order on Amazon!

Cam Ward by the Stats

Miami has a new QB this year to replace Tyler Van Dyke in Washington State transfer Cam Ward.

Ward is a bit of an enigma in that the media hype surrounding him seems unwarranted given his actual statistical profile. For instance, Van Dyke had a QB rating of 145.6 in 11 games last season. Cam Ward? 145.4.

But Ward is able to bring value with his legs, right? We’ve all seen highlights of him scrambling around and making defenders miss. Van Dyke averaged 0.7 yards per rush on 24 attempts. Cam Ward? He averaged 1.20 yards per rush on 120 rush attempts (!).

That is an enormous volume (120 carries) for a player who is well below average on a per-rush basis.

The result is that when you evaluate Ward using my proprietary stat – Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – Ward graded out as below average in 2023 with a rating of -0.27 (remember, for YAR zero is average, 1.0 is good, 2.0 is Heisman-level and -1.0 is terrible). Van Dyke actually had a slightly positive YAR for 2023 (0.30).

The only thing that Van Dyke did in 2023 that was worse than Ward is that he was much more turnover prone, as he threw 12 interceptions compared to 7 for Ward. That equates to a 1.4 interception percentage for Ward and 3.5 percent for Van Dyke.

But if we look deeper at the statistics, Pro Football Focus categorizes 3.6 percent of Ward’s throws as “turnover worthy plays (TWP)” while Tyler Van Dyke was at 3.5 percent. This suggests that the difference in interceptions is more about the defenses they played against being more effective at completing the turnover than Ward having a magical ability to avoid them.

There is no doubt that Ward is more mobile than Van Dyke. But that mobility did not translate into much more yardage given the enormous number of sacks that he takes. And since his running is so inefficient, Miami isn’t really getting an upgrade at the QB position in 2024.

Ward vs. Mertz

Again, if you listen to the media narrative about Ward, you’d think he’s a gunslinger who gets the ball down the field while Mertz is a dink-and-dunk QB who never throws deep. You’ll hear comparisons of Ward to Brett Favre, someone nobody would ever think to compare to Mertz.

Yet, if we look at adjusted depth of target (ADOT), Ward is at 7.7 and Mertz is at 6.7. That does indicate that Mertz checks down more than Ward, but 7.7 isn’t a gunslinger. For comparison, both Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and LSU’s Jayden Daniels had an ADOT of 10.5.

Ward had 485 attempts in 2023, 57 of which traveled at least 20 yards in the air (11.7%). Mertz – the guy who has been criticized for not going down field all offseason had 39 attempts that traveled 20-plus yards in the air on 358 attempts (10.9%). That’s essentially three more checkdowns for Mertz over the course of the season.

But Ward must be much more effective when he goes down field then, right? Well……

Cam Ward vs. Graham Mertz by target depth. (Will Miles/Read & Reaction)

Ward is better than Mertz when going downfield, but only slightly so. If we look at QB ratings by Air Yards, Ward beats Mertz at 20+ yards and 11-20 yards slightly, but gets beat soundly in the 0-10 yard area and pretty decisively on throws behind the line of scrimmage.

The result is that Mertz was more efficient overall (QB Rating of 157.8) than Ward (145.4). Mertz is much worse running the ball (62 carries for -75 yards), which means that his YAR for 2023 (-0.20) was very similar to Ward’s (-0.27).

I have been one of the most vocal analysts out there warning people that Graham Mertz – while improving considerably in 2023 vs. his previous results at Wisconsin – is still a limited player. I’ve made that claim leaning on YAR, which suggests he’s a pretty average QB even with that improvement.

Ward Hype – Fact or Fiction?

But the hype around Ward is based on how he looks playing football rather than what he actually does playing football. Consider these headlines this offseason:

• “Cam Ward’s ‘crazy story’ led him to the Miami Hurricanes. Will it end in greatness?” Miami Herald
• “Cameron Ward might be the next great Miami quarterback.” ESPN
• “Miami Hurricanes head coach drops bold take on QB Cam Ward.” SI
• “Can Cam Ward help take retooled Miami offense to new heights?” The Miami Hurricane

Can you imagine how writers would have been ravaged had they written the same thing about Mertz coming into last season? Even coming into this season – with Mertz heading into his second season in Florida’s system – there is real debate about whether Mertz can take another step. I happen to think that’s unlikely.

But I suspect that’s also unlikely for Ward as well. None of the hype I’ve cited above is based on his stats. Ward has been a serviceable QB in his first two seasons at Washington State. That means that the hype is all about projecting how he’ll do with presumably better teammates at Miami. That is probably true.

But what that ignores is that defenses in the ACC are going to be better than the defenses that he played against out west. The Pac-12 – not exactly known for pass rushers – managed to sack Ward 43 times last year, a rate of 8.8 percent per drop. Mertz – whom I’ve taken to task for holding onto the ball too much and taking too many sacks – was sacked 21 times for a rate of 6.8 percent per drop.

I don’t think Cam Ward is a bad player. But the hype isn’t backed up by the stats. He has to take a giant leap in 2024 to be the player everybody perceives him to be. Does he have more physical skills than Mertz? Yes, he does.

But this is essentially a wash at the QB position between these two teams, which means there are other matchups that are going to determine who wins this game that has nothing to do with the QBs.

More on that tomorrow as we take a look at the key matchup in this game.

• Part 1 – Big picture overview
• Part 2 – QB evaluation
• Part 3 – Key Matchup
• Part 4 – Prediction