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Miami vs. Florida Preview – Part 3

I’ve gotten feedback that sometimes my previews can be a bit…..comprehensive. So for Miami week (and maybe the entire year) at Read & Reaction, I’m going to be trying something a little bit different. We’re going to roll out different portions of the game previews every day this week, focusing on the big picture (Monday), the QBs (Tuesday), the key matchup (Wednesday) and the prediction (Thursday). If you like getting my articles and digesting all at once, you can still do so on Thursday as per normal, but I’d love to hear whether dividing things up is helpful/preferred.

Also, if you like our type of analysis, there’s a lot more in our 2024 Florida Preseason Magazine. You can get a digital copy in your inbox in 5 minutes if you buy the pdf version, and you can have a hard copy in two days if you order on Amazon!

Setting the Stage

Note: This article contains statistics from Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions, subscriptions which have been purchased due to your patronage of our preseason magazine. Thank you!

Conventional wisdom – and most of the time, the statistics – say that if you pressure a QB, his play gets significantly worse. That is absolutely true for Miami QB Cam Ward, who posted a PFF overall rating of 88.2 when clean in the pocket while posting a rating of 57.0 when pressured.

But there is some nuance associated with those statistics, namely that Ward took 2.13 seconds per drop back when clean (i.e. he got rid of the ball quickly and decisively) and took 4.33 (!) seconds per drop back when pressured (i.e. he scrambled all over the place).

If we segment that data into different bins, this time blitzed and not blitzed, what we see is that when blitzed, Ward does get sacked and pressured more often. However, he also has a lower turnover worthy play percentage, his interception rate is virtually identical and his big time play rate is almost two percentage points higher.

Cam Ward stats when blitzed and not blitzed.

There are a few reasons for this. First, blitzing leaves you open to big plays in general. I already mentioned the disparity in seconds it took Ward to throw when under pressure vs. not, and we see the same disparity (though not as large) when looking at time to throw when blitzed (2.48 seconds) vs. not blitzed (2.91 seconds).

Ward is being more decisive and getting the ball out quicker against the blitz. Yes, sometimes the defense gets home for a pressure or a sack, but he’s actually more turnover prone when the defense drops into a zone. That didn’t show up in his interception rate last year, but it did show up in his fumble stats, where PFF had him rated at 28.9 (bad) when not blitzed and 73.4 (good) when blitzed.

So if I were to sum up one takeaway from all of this, I think it suggests that Ward is worse when pressured, but that blitzing to achieve that pressure is suboptimal because you open yourself up to the risk of explosive plays while also decreasing the likelihood of a turnover.

The Key Matchup

That takeaway leads to the one matchup that Florida has to win if it’s going to win this game: The Gators have to get pressure with its front four. That’s easier said than done for a few reasons.

First, if we look at everyone on the defensive line roster, there were a total of 32 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. But that includes the combined 18.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks between Joey Slackman and George Gumbs, both transfers who have yet to prove their wares in the SEC.

In many ways, Slackman is the key for the defense in this game. Cam Jackson (0.5 TFL, 0 Sacks), Caleb Banks (1.5 TFL, 1.0 Sacks), and Desmond Watson (1.0 TFL, 1.0 Sacks) were unable to get penetration last season, exposing Florida’s secondary to constant attack. With Chris McClellan transferring and Jamari Lyons being out injured, that leaves Slackman as the place where you look for a difference maker.

That’s a lot to ask out of someone in his first Power-4 football game after dominating Dartmouth and Harvard.

But it obviously takes two to tango, and how Florida matches up against Miami’s offensive line is a key consideration. The problem for Florida is that the offensive line is one of the major strengths on the Hurricanes’ roster.

Left tackle Jalen Rivers was a high 4-star recruit who is going to be making his 24th start for Miami. Rivers earned second team All-ACC honors in 2023 and rated as 8.40 points above average according to Sports Info Solutions.

Right tackle Francis Mauigoa was the 10th ranked player in the 2023 recruiting class. He started all 13 games as a true freshman and delivered on that promise, earning honorable mention All-ACC and Freshman All-American honors. He rated as 5.17 points above average according to Sports Info Solutions.

Right guard Anez Cooper was a 3-star recruit who has overdelivered that ranking, starting 4 games as a true freshman in 2022 and all 13 games last season. He earned honorable mention All-ACC honors in 2023 and rated as 4.35 points above average according to Sports Info Solutions.

Center Zach Carpenter transfers in from Indiana, where he made 25 total starts and earned honorable mention All-Big Ten last season. Carpenter rated at 7.94 points above average at center for the Hoosiers. That’s an upgrade over what Miami got out of the center position last season, with center Matt Lee accounting for 6.01 points above average.

Samson Okunlola was a 5-star recruit in the 2023 class (23rd overall recruit). He redshirted in 2023 after suffering a knee injury and is replacing Javion Cohen, who was the weak spot on the offensive line last year with a rating of 0.45 points above average. This is probably the weakest spot on the Miami offensive line, or at least the least proven.

Let me say that again: The weakness of the Miami offensive line is a player who rated as a can’t-miss prospect out of high school at tackle, and who has moved to guard because Miami has two All-ACC level tackles.

Advantage: ‘Canes

Takeaway

If you’re curious for a comparison, Florida’s offensive line rated the following in 2023:

• Micah Mazzccua: 0.50 points above average in 694 snaps
• Damieon George, Jr.: 1.25 PAA in 649 snaps
• Richie Leonard IV: -2.61 PAA in 739 snaps
• Austin Barber: -1.19 PAA in 554 snaps
• Jake Slaughter: -1.37 PAA in 536 snaps
• Kingsley Eguakun: 0.18 PAA in 235 snaps

This stat isn’t the be-all, end-all for offensive line play, but I do think it gives a pretty good gauge of at least levels of OL play. If we compare Miami’s numbers to the 2023 Georgia Bulldogs, the comparison is favorable, as guys like Sedrick Van Pran (7.01 PAA) and Tate Ratledge (9.00 PAA) both received first-team All-SEC honors last season.

So what we have is a Gators defensive front that is either inexperienced in the SEC or has been relatively ineffective in the SEC. We also have an offensive line opposing that defensive front that has a ton of experience (4 guys started all 13 games last year), has produced on the field, and has a talent level that suggests that performance isn’t a fluke.

So we go back to what I wrote at the start of this article. The way to make Cam Ward struggle is to get pressure with four rushers while dropping seven men into coverage. But I’m not sure Florida is going to be able to do that given the strength of Miami’s OL and the relative weakness of Florida’s front.

That means the Florida defense – which was extremely susceptible to explosive plays last year – is likely going to have to expose its secondary to Ward and risk the big plays. Jason Marshall, Devin Moore, Asa Turner and Jordan Castell are going to earn their NIL money in this one.

Will Muschamp used to say that the SEC is a line of scrimmage league. If that’s the case, then the Hurricanes have a major advantage. That means there’s one way Florida hangs, and that’s turning this one into a track meet…..which we’ll talk about tomorrow in Part 4 of the Florida vs. Miami preview.

• Part 1 – Big picture overview
• Part 2 – QB evaluation
• Part 3 – Key Matchup
• Part 4 – Prediction