There are a lot of unknowns for Florida coming into this game against Texas A&M.
A&M lost to Notre Dame at home to open the season 23-13. That seemed like a pretty good performance for Mike Elko in his first game as Aggies head coach….until Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois a week later.
Tre Wilson leads Florida with 13 catches, and with Elijhah Badger making big plays against Samford, the wide receiver room looked to be the strongest position for the Gators offense. But Wilson showed up on the Gators injury list and even if he plays, will he be able to be the dynamic playmaker we’ve come to enjoy?
And then there’s the biggest unknown. Billy Napier says he’s going to use both Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway in some capacity against the Aggies. Is that just coach speak and he’s going to ride Mertz until it’s clear he shouldn’t? Is that just coach speak and he’s going to essentially transition to Lagway as the starter? Or is he actually going to rotate these guys even though their skills have way more overlap than the last time we saw this with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow?
With all of those questions, we’re going to get a lot of answers when Florida takes on Texas A&M. A lot of that has to do with some of the questions A&M has as well.
Is the opener real?
In the opener against Notre Dame, Texas A&M gained 3.6 yards per play. That’s abominably bad offense. In the opener against Miami, Florida gave up 7.7 yards per play. That’s putrid defense. Something has to give.
Either Miami is really good and so Florida is better than they showed on the defensive side of the ball. Or Miami isn’t that great but Florida’s defense made them look great.
Similarly for A&M, Notre Dame may have a really good defense. Or the Aggies offense is terrible and the Gators defense should be able to use it to get healthy. With the game being in The Swamp, that’s really the best shot Florida’s defense has to gain some confidence.
I really lean towards A&M’s offense is truly terrible. Starting QB Conner Weigman had a QB rating of 54.7 against the Irish. For frame of reference, an average QB usually has a QB rating of around 145 and Graham Mertz had a QB rating of 83.2 against Miami. As bad as Mertz was against the Hurricanes, Weigman was even worse.
That’s a departure from what Weigman showed last year, when he had a QB rating of 156.8 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt (good, but not great). And while A&M lost WR Evan Stewart to Oregon, the Aggies still have Moose Muhammad, Noah Thomas, and Jahdae Walker at the position. Those three combined for 91 catches last year, but have only 12 combined through the first two games.
Historically, teams with new coaches often take a step back statistically. I suspect this is often because the players who are already there were recruited for a different scheme than the one they’re being asked to now run. We can see that if we look at some of Weigman’s stats from 2022 to 2024.
Not only is Weigman not going deep often at all, but he isn’t throwing behind the line of scrimmage at all. I typically am not a huge fan of a screen game, but it’s pretty striking that everything Weigman throws is in that 0-10 yard range. The result is that Weigman’s average depth of target (ADOT) is down over two yards, from 10.1 last year to 8.0 this year.
When I wrote about the Mertz Conundrum earlier this offseason, I pointed out that the middle distances (0-10, 11-20 air yards) are the most efficient types of throws, so there’s nothing inherently wrong with Weigman’s throw distribution. The problem is that Weigman is only completing 57 percent of those throws for a QB rating of 106.7. So these may be the right type of throws, but Weigman isn’t able to complete them at a high enough clip to make them pay off.
But if you’re looking for a key against the Gators, I think this is it. Under new offensive coordinator Collin Klein, Weigman is going to try to get the ball out quickly to his receivers in space within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The question will be can Florida keep his efficiency on those throws down.
Florida’s defensive backfield
Lost in the headlines of Wilson being added to the Gators injury report is the other major issue with that injury report: there are a ton of defensive backs on that list.
Starting corner Devin Moore and nickelback Sharif Denson were initially listed as questionable. Starting safety Asa Turner and Moore’s backup Ja’Keem Jackson were listed as out. Backup safety Bryce Thornton was listed as questionable, as was backup DBs Ahman Covington and Bryan Slade. In Florida’s updated availability report, Denson and Thornton were removed from the list and so should play, but their effectiveness will be something to watch.
The other issue is that Florida gave up 10.7 yards per pass attempt against the Hurricanes. If we look at the PFF numbers for the defensive backfield, things are pretty ugly even with last week’s performance against Samford. Note that a PFF score of 70 is usually pretty close to average.
- Jason Marshall – 64.6
- J. Douglas – 49.8
- Jordan Castell – 63.0
- Sharif Denson – 63.9
- Aaron Gates – 70.7
- Dijon Johnson – 79.3
- Greg Smith – 74.8
- Trikweze Bridges – 73.8
- Teddy Foster – 63.5
- Alfonzo Allen – 64.4
The top four are ostensibly the starters, who have played below average, significantly so in Douglas’ case. These numbers are also buoyed by last week’s win against Samford, as only Johnson and Bridges had PFF rankings above 70 in the Miami game.
How Florida’s defensive backs hold up in the short/intermediate range is going to be key in this game. If they play off the Aggies and just let them make 8-yard catch after 8-yard catch, they’ll get eaten alive. The problem is that based on personnel and injuries, they may not have the horses to come up and challenge A&M and Weigman to beat them deep.
Takeaway
This game is an absolute must win for Florida and Billy Napier.
Napier is currently 5-5 at The Swamp against Power-4 opponents. That’s the kind of number that even his most staunch defenders understand needs to turn around quickly. Because if he continues at a .500 clip at home, this season gets ugly really quickly.
But even more that that, losing to A&M and a first-year coach further reinforces the narrative (or truth?) that Napier’s program is no further along in his third year than they were when he took over. After all, if Mario Cristobal can wax you at home in his third year and Mike Elko beats you at home in his first, what exactly is being built?
I’ve identified Florida’s pass defense – especially on short route concepts – as the key to the game. That worries me given Florida’s pass defense in the entire Napier era. That’s especially true given Florida’s inability to get any sort of pass rush over the past few seasons as well.
Against the Hurricanes, Florida blitzed 34 percent of the time on pass plays. That isn’t what the Gators want to do on that side of the ball. You know how I know? Against an overmatched Samford opponent, the Gators only blized 8 percent of the time (3 plays). But on those three plays where the Gators blitzed, Samford had a 100 percent success rate. Miami was at 54 percent.
If you can’t hold up when you blitz, that suggests deficiencies at defensive back. Add to that the injury list and I’m really concerned that Florida may make Weigman and the A&M offense look like the ’99 Rams.
Finally, there’s the Napier factor.
Napier came to Florida espousing a “scared money don’t make money” philosophy and he lived up to that initially. In 2022 against Tennessee (I mistakenly said “Wisconsin” when describing this on Gators Breakdown this week, hazards of live streaming), Napier went for fourth downs six times and went for two point conversions twice as the Gators tried to climb back in the game against the Vols. I lauded Napier in my post-game recap for giving his team a better chance to win by being aggressive.
But ever since that game, Florida fans have seen bland offensive play calling combined with either conservative or inconsistent decision-making. Lots of people have called out Napier for some of his play calls, but Bud Davis has been pointing out for years the one that I find most damning.
Bud has looked at Florida’s offensive tendencies and has identified that when Florida is in a pistol set, they overwhelmingly run the ball. When they have the running back offset, it typically is a pass. This continued against Miami, as Florida called designed runs 61 percent of the time from the pistol and called designed passes (throws plus sacks/scrambles) 74 percent of the time against the Hurricanes.
Bud’s a smart guy, but the fact that he’s been putting this on X for years and Napier and Co. still have this tendency means the defense knows what’s coming. It also is how you end up with Miami’s defensive coordinator essentially saying they had narrowed Florida down to its key plays and were prepared for them.
I’m not sure where “scared money don’t make money” Napier went. He disappeared after that Tennessee game and hasn’t been seen since. Instead we’ve seen a predictable offense, a sieve-like defense, and special teams that until this year were abominable as well.
Unless that Napier makes an appearance and has D.J. Lagway chucking the ball all over the lot, I struggle to see how Florida wins this one. The faceplant of both the offense and the defense against the Hurricanes means there has to be a major change, or I’m going to struggle to pick them against anyone, even at home.
Texas A&M (-3) wins, 31-17.