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Florida tries to get right on the road against Mississippi State

Why am I worried about Florida’s trek to Starkville to take on Mississippi State?

Is it because the game starts at noon and Florida has traditionally struggled in those sorts of games? Is it because Florida has struggled at home and now has to go into hostile territory? Is it because I’m going to have to listen to Dan Mullen on the broadcast talking about how he told Scott Stricklin to hire Lane Kiffin as he was being fired? Is it because there’s the potential that the team is ready for a new voice at head coach after weeks of criticism?

Yes, those things concern me a little bit, but the thing that concerns me the most is the player that Mississippi State has at QB: Blake Shapen.

Shapen arrived in Starkville after three seasons at Baylor where he averaged 7.4 yards per throw, a 64 percent completion percentage and a QB rating of 138.3. Essentially, he was a slightly below average QB in Waco.

But he’s been a different guy in Jeff Lebby’s offense thus far, with a QB rating of 174.9, a TD:INT ratio of 7:1 and a Yards Above Replacement (YAR, my proprietary QB stat) of 1.0. Essentially, he’s been playing like Jake Fromm circa 2018.

Yes, that is against inferior competition (Eastern Kentucky, Arizona State and Toledo), but Arizona State is a pretty good team and Shapen has been good in each of his matchups (QB rating > 152 in all three).

The problem in Starkville has been the same problem we’ve been experiencing in Gainesville: the defense.

Mississippi State’s defense gave up 30 points to Arizona State and then 41 last week to Toledo. They held Eastern Kentucky down to just seven. Of course, Florida gave up 41 points to Miami, 33 to Texas A&M and then seven to Samford, so just from a performance-thus-far perspective, these teams look equivalent.

That’s further reinforced when you look at the overall statistical profile of each team against FBS opponents.

On offense, these teams have both been stuck in the mud outside of the games against FCS cupcakes. Florida has been more balanced in its ineptitude while Mississippi State has been awful on the ground specifically with Shapen picking up the slack through the air.

That’s a problem for Florida given the passing defense that we’ve seen thus far, reflected in these stats.

Mississippi State’s defense has been bad. Florida’s has been catastrophically bad, surrendering over 10 yards per attempt through the air. The run defense hasn’t been much better, and given injuries to players who were supposed to be key transfers both in the secondary (Asa Turner) and on the defensive line (Joey Slackman), it’s hard to imagine that the Bulldogs won’t be able to exploit Florida’s weaknesses on that side of the ball.

Of course, you could make the same argument for the Gators. Whether Billy Napier decides to stick with his every-other-drive QB rotation or not, there should be opportunities for the Gators running game to get healthy given Mississippi State’s inability to stop its opponents on the ground.

But that’s where the regression of Graham Mertz starts to be a concern. According to Sports Info Solutions, last season Mertz provided 26.3 Expected Points Added (EPA) over the course of the season with 23 percent of his plays categorized as “Boom” (EPA > 1.0 on a play) and only 16 percent of his plays categorized as “Bust” (EPA < -1.0).

But in 2024 thus far, Mertz has a cumulative EPA of -11.1 with a Boom percentage of 18.4 percent and a Bust percentage of 23.7 percent. The worrisome thing for Gators fans is that those stats look remarkably like the ones Mertz put up in 2022 at Wisconsin (-12.4 EPA, 22% Boom, 23% Bust).

The big concern is that Mertz had an average depth of target (ADOT) of 10.2 in 2022, which dropped to 6.4 in 2023 and has gone back up to 10.0 in 2024. Billy Napier and Mertz spent this offseason talking about going downfield more often and there is a reward to taking that strategy. But that strategy comes with a risk as well, one that has shown up in spades thus far.

That shows up especially in what Pro Football Focus (PFF) calls turnover-worthy plays (TWPs). In 41 drops thus far in 2024, Mertz has 5 TWPs (11.1%). He had six (1.4%) in all of 2023. That’s how you end up with a guy who threw three interceptions all of last year with two already, including a backbreaking pick-six against Texas A&M. And for all the talk of offensive line failures, Mertz has 2 TWPs when the pocket is kept clean.

If you’re taking the Gators, it isn’t based on anything Florida has put on the field thus far. Instead, you’re betting on the Gators schedule being much more difficult than Mississippi State’s. You’re also betting on the Florida defense slowing down Shapen in a way the Florida defense hasn’t stopped anyone over the past three weeks.

I am sympathetic to the first argument. I’m less inclined to believe the second. I suspect Florida’s defense is going to continue to struggle, but Mississippi State’s will as well. Florida will be able to move the ball and score, and this one will come down to which team is able to generate the most explosive plays.

Because of the presence of WRs Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike, I’m going to give Florida the advantage in that category. However, I don’t think that advantage is strong enough to warrant believing the Gators will win by more than a touchdown.

Florida wins, but Mississippi State covers the spread (UF, -7), 31-28.

Predictions this season: 1-1 (1-1 against the spread)