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Can a desperate Florida team get a win over Kentucky?

A motivated Florida team should show up at The Swamp on Saturday to take on Kentucky.

After finding multiple ways to hand last week’s game over to Tennessee, the Gators find themselves at 3-3 with the 3-3 Wildcats the last “easy” game before the teeth of the much vaunted 2024 schedule.

After this and a bye week, Florida gets Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. Drop a home game against Kentucky and you’re staring 3-8 directly in the face. Get a win and you have a week to prepare for that gauntlet and only have to go 1-3 to get to five wins heading into the game against a wounded FSU.

A home game against Kentucky used to be a sure win. Mark Stoops – and the Gators fall to a mediocre SEC team – has changed that completely. That’s why Kentucky is a 1.5-point favorite heading into this one.

The question is, should they be?

The Stats

The analysis on this one is pretty easy if we collate the offensive and defensive stats for these two against FBS opponents.

It is strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Florida clearly has a better offense than Kentucky, and the Wildcats clearly have a better defense than the Gators. Yes, it is true that Florida has been much better on defense in the past two games. But it’s also true that most of Florida’s offensive numbers have been generated with Graham Mertz at starting QB.

Thus, while it’s interesting to look at these stats just to know where these teams stand, I think we should acknowledge that understanding how these might change will give us an idea of how this game might turn out.

Schedules

Florida has gotten a lot of publicity about the difficulty of the 2024 schedule, but Kentucky’s schedule to start the season hasn’t been much easier.

The Wildcats opened with a 31-0 victory over Southern Miss before getting shellacked by South Carolina, 31-6. They then lost by one point to Georgia (13-12), beat an overmatched Ohio team 41-6, knocked-off Ole Miss 20-17 and then lost to Vanderbilt last week 20-13.

Had you told me before the season that Kentucky would come into this game having lost to the Gamecocks and Commodores, I would have said this was an easy win for the Gators, but looking at those scores suggests there’s more to the story.

For instance, if we take score differential against FBS opponents into account, we would expect Kentucky to be 4-2. That’s because the Wildcats have been slightly unlucky, going 1-2 in one-score games. Florida has gotten exactly what they deserved based on point differential, as it predicts the Gators winning 2.2 games (out of 5, since Samford was FCS).

How about against quality opponents? Against Georgia (ESPN FPI of 4), Kentucky kept it a once-score game. Against Ole Miss (ESPN FPI of 5), Kentucky won. They got blown out by South Carolina (FPI = 25) and lost close to Vandy (FPI = 35).

For Florida, the Gators got blown out by two of their best opponents, Miami (FPI = 10) and Texas A&M (FPI = 12). They lost a one-score game against Tennessee (FPI = 7). The other two opponents have been right around average (Miss. St. has an FPI ranking of 59 and Central Florida is at 47).

Were I to sum it up, I’d say that Kentucky has shown up more often than Florida with similar opponents. Florida no-showed against Miami and A&M while Kentucky only no-showed against South Carolina. It’s obviously possible that Kentucky will no-show again. But it’s probably more likely that could be used to describe the Gators.

Advantage: Kentucky

The Quarterbacks

Brock Vandagriff had the pedigree to be a great QB when he committed to Georgia. The former 5-star commit wasn’t able to beat out Carson Beck, so he transferred to Kentucky. I think a lot of Wildcat fans though they finally had their man, after getting mixed results from the transfer portal with Will Levis and Devin Leary.

But Vandagriff has played poorly this season. His QB rating of 129.8 is well below average and his Yards Above Replacement (YAR, my proprietary stat that takes running and passing efficiency into account) is well below average as well, at -0.70.

On the other side, D.J. Lagway’s stats look fantastic by comparison. Lagway has a QB rating of 166.3 and a YAR of 2.04. However, the vast majority of those stats were compiled against Samford. If we subtract the Samford game, Lagway comes way back to earth with a QB rating of 113.9 and a YAR of -1.06.

So which QB are we getting? I suspect it’s more the latter.

The killer to Lagway’s statistical profile has been the turnovers. His four interceptions in 47 throws against FBS opposition is concerning. If he’s going to throw a pick every 11 throws, you’re probably staring at Florida having at least two turnovers in the game.

This isn’t out of the ordinary for skilled players who are young and tuned to taking risks. In 2022, Anthony Richardson looked like a Heisman candidate in the opener against Utah, completing 71 percent of his throws. In the next two games against Kentucky and USF, Richardson completed 45 percent of his throws and threw 4 INTs with zero touchdowns. The next week against Tennessee, Richardson again looked otherworldly, throwing for 453 yards against the Vols as the Gators took Tennessee to the wire at Neyland.

It’s entirely possible that Lagway looks like a Heisman-worthy player against Kentucky. He has that sort of skill-set, and has already shown the types of throws he can make. But he’s also shown us that he will make mistakes because of that ability.

Vandagriff hasn’t been good this season, but he only has two picks. I think Lagway is going to be a really good player long-term. I’ve also said that 2024 and Napier’s future would rest on his shoulders, unfair as that is. But if he turns the ball over, Florida is going to have to win significantly at other places to offset that.

Advantage: Kentucky

Coaching

After last week, is there any question where the advantage lies here?

I already mentioned the first meeting between these two teams, where Mark Stoops came into Gainesville after Richardson tortured Utah and completely shut him down. Graham Mertz’s numbers look pretty good in last year’s tilt against the Wildcats (25-30, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT), but that’s really misleading.

Florida’s first five drives were the following:

• 4 plays, -3 yards – Punt
• 3 plays, 5 yards – INT
• 9 plays, 28 yards – Punt
• 4 plays, 14 yards – Punt
• 6 plays, 16 yards – Punt

On those five drive, Mertz was 6-10 for 50 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT and was sacked twice. By the time Florida took over for its sixth drive, Kentucky was ahead 23-0.

I’m not listing these stats to come down hard on Mertz. I’m not sure it’s his fault. Indeed, I point these out to highlight that Stoops has stuffed Napier the offensive coordinator in a locker the last two times these teams have met, regardless of who has been behind center.

I find it difficult to believe that Stoops won’t have a plan to neutralize Lagway and make things difficult for him.

Advantage: Kentucky

Takeaway

Kentucky has holes in its team. Vandagriff hasn’t been very good and they don’t run the ball very well. With Florida’s defensive improvement since the bye week, there’s a chance Florida can shut down the Wildcats and turn this into a defensive battle.

That’s good, because Kentucky is a top-10 defense for points allowed vs. FBS opponents and top-30 in yards per play allowed. They lost to Vanderbilt because the offense was terrible (13 points, 2 turnovers). They were able to pull out a win against Ole Miss because they won the turnover battle and held a potent offense to 17 points.

If this is a high-scoring affair, that doesn’t bode well for Florida. They’re starting a true freshman at QB who is talented, but turnover prone, against a defense that is playing well.

I actually think if we were just analyzing the teams, it would be close and I’d probably pick the Gators because they’re at home. But Florida still employs Napier as its head coach.

The Gators left a bunch of points on the field last week against Tennessee. It’s not the first time that has happened under Napier’s watch, and it’s cost him multiple times in his tenure. The spread of this game is 1.5 points because Vegas thinks it is this close.

That means if you give up even three points because of poor play calling, a special teams blunder, or poor clock management, it probably sways the outcome.

Kentucky (-1.5) wins, 23-20.

Picks this year: 4-1 (2-3 ATS).