Can Napier flip the narrative with a win over the hated Bulldogs?

Billy Napier is 0-2 against Georgia and 1-9 against Florida’s main rivals (1-2 vs. UT, 0-2 vs. LSU, 0-2 vs. UGA, 0-2 vs. FSU and 0-1 vs. UM). Those losses have been by an average score of 39-26, so clearly defense has been an issue.

But the Gators seem to have gotten that straightened out, surrendering 13 points to Central Florida, 23 to Tennessee (6 in OT) and 20 to Kentucky (7 on special teams). More importantly, the Gators have surrendered an average of 4.5 yards per play in those games, two yards less than they surrendered in the first three games of the year (not including Samford).

So if they’ve fixed the 39 in the above equation, this game can be close. And if D.J. Lagway can help fix the 26 in the equation, there’s hope for a win.

The question is, can Billy Napier get both of those to happen and flip the narrative against Georgia.

The Stats

This is not the dominant Georgia defense of the past few years.

This year’s unit ranks 35th in yards per play allowed, which isn’t bad. But when you compare that to 2023 (10th), 2022 (16th) and 2021 (2nd), we can see that Kirby’s defense has definitely taken a step back.

The 2021 and 2022 units were special against the run (2nd and 4th in yards per pass allowed), but has slipped the last two years (30th last year, 20th this year). But where the defense has really slipped is against the pass, where Georgia is ranked 43rd in yards per pass allowed compared to 5th, 25th and 6th the past three seasons.

That plays well into what the Gators want to do on offense. Florida ranks 38th overall in yards per play gained against FBS opponents, but ranks just 70th in yards per rush. But through the air – and much because of D.J. Lagway – the Gators rank 13th in yards per pass. And remember, these numbers are against FBS opponents so it doesn’t take into account his numbers against Samford.

Florida was a decent offense under Graham Mertz, efficient through the air but not explosive. They’ve become a truly explosive one under Lagway, albeit in a very limited sample size.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs bring in the 33rd ranked offense, essentially tied with the Gators at 6.1 yards per play. They haven’t run the ball that well, ranking 76th in yards per rush, instead relying on the passing game to generate points (38th in yards per pass).

I already mentioned the transformation of the Florida defense in the opening paragraphs, and the question is whether they can keep that going. That’s because a defense that gives up 5.6 yards per play ranks 60th amongst FBS teams. That would normally indicate a significant disadvantage for the Gators.

But the Gators have only allowed 4.5 yards per play over the past three games. That would be a top-10 defense. Of course, that means the Gators also allowed 6.5 yards per play against its first three opponents, which would be ranked 117th.

Which defense shows up on Saturday will go a long way towards determining the outcome in this one.

2024 Beck vs. 2023 Beck

Carson Beck has taken a significant step back this season.

His QB rating coming into this game is 146.4, or right around average. That’s compared to a QB rating of 167.9 last season. If we look at my stat, Yard Above Replacement (YAR), Beck was a very good-but-not-great QB last year with a YAR of 1.42. This season his YAR is 0.24, or just slightly above average. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks him better, with a PFF overall score of 81.3 (above average) this season, but that’s down from a 91.5 ranking (elite) last season.

So why is that? I think we can get an idea if we look at his throw distance over the past two seasons.

The above chart shows the frequency and associated QB rating of throws at different distances from the line of scrimmage for 2023 and 2024. What we see for Beck is that his throw distribution hasn’t changed very much. He’s essentially throwing the ball at a 20-plus yard distance of 11-20 yard distance at the same frequency.

But his effectiveness has dropped across the board for all throws, with the difference being in the 0-10 and 11-20 yard distances. Who typically makes catches at that distance? Tight ends.

Brock Bowers – now of the Las Vegas Raiders – had 56 catches for 714 yards last season. 26 of those catches came at the distances where Beck has struggled the most.

Georgia only has 21 catches this season from tight ends. That’s an average of three receptions per game. Last year, the Bulldogs averaged 5.9 receptions per game from its tight ends. In 2022, the Bulldogs averaged 6.4 receptions per game from its tight ends.

But Bowers wasn’t just a weapon at those intermediate distances. He caught 29 balls for 230 yards behind the line of scrimmage last season. That’s a ton of screens for a tight end. That has completely dried up this year, with leading tight end Lawson Luckie catching just 3 balls for 9 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

This play has completely disappeared from the Georgia offense. Because of that, Beck is way less efficient this year than he was last year. That isn’t some transient thing that Georgia is “just waiting for him to get going.” There is a personnel reason that he’s come back to the pack.

The Lagway Effect

If Florida’s defense really has turned a corner and Carson Beck really is an average QB, then that means this game is going to come down to the play of true freshman D.J. Lagway.

That isn’t just hyperbole. It’s been the state of Florida every game this year so far.

What this plot shows is the PFF overall QB rating for the Gators in each game. In games where both Mertz and Lagway played, this number is a composite. What I’ve plotted this against is Florida’s EPA differential for each game, so this includes both the offense and defense.

The reason I included both the offense and defense was to show the following: Florida’s EPA differential has a linear relationship to its QB play. That really means that regardless of how its defense plays, this game will come down to Lagway.

The good news is that those two points high and to the right on the plot are Lagway’s starts where he’s gotten all first-team reps. He has been fantastic in those situations, averaging an absurd 16.4 yards per attempt. The problem is that in the other games where Lagway has played, he has averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt.

That second category makes up more throws (47) than the first (39). So just like the defense has been Jekyl and Hyde, so has Lagway through the season.

Part of that is understandable, as Lagway has been sharing time with Mertz. That’s hard for a young QB, but especially for a QB who is differentiated by hitting deep shots. You get less opportunities where the defense gives you the right look and where you have the correct play call to take the shot when you play one out of every three drives. But part of it is that Lagway doesn’t always see the field well yet when the defense does something after the snap.

This is a typical flood route that is a staple in Napier’s offense. The receiver at the bottom of the screen (Elijhah Badger, #6) runs a go-route. Chimere Dike (#17) comes across on a mid-level route. And Ja’Kobi Jackson (#24) comes out of the backfield on a short route.

But I want you to look at Kentucky’s linebacker (circled). He takes one step towards Lagway and then streaks into the zone where Dike is going to end up. The deep safety goes with Badger and so Lagway thinks he has Dike wide open across the middle. But the linebacker is there, meaning Lagway misses an open Tre Wilson (#3) who was running a dig route behind Dike.

This just turned into an incompletion, but it’s the kind of thing you can expect from Georgia on Saturday. Lagway doesn’t do well when the defense shifts what it is showing pre-snap. That’s why he has 5 INTs this season thus far.

Takeaway

Florida has a way better shot at winning this game than I thought they would coming into the season.

Part of that is the hope of D.J. Lagway. Part of that is that Georgia hasn’t been as dominant this year as it has been in previous years. Part of it is that Florida finally seems to have a functional defense given what we’ve seen the past three weeks.

The problem is that I had hope heading into the opening game against Utah last year…..and Florida laid an egg. I had hope after the South Carolina win last year, and then the Gators reeled off five straight losses. And I had hope coming into this year against Miami, and the game was basically over by halftime.

Forgive me for being wary that the little kernel of belief that I’ve gotten from watching Lagway sling it all over the field a couple of times is going to blow up in my face.

Can Napier flip the narrative with a win over the hated Bulldogs?